Aligned Indicator Conditional Simulation of Probability of Karst-Fissure Media in Karst Area of Northern China
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摘要: 针对当前岩溶学研究领域中空隙位置定量预测和数学描述的难题, 选择研究程度高、资料丰富、具有典型代表性的山东济南泉域的含水岩溶裂隙介质, 运用序列指示条件模拟方法研究空隙间的连通性能, 预测岩溶裂隙密集带和强径流带的位置.研究表明, 它既可给出其模拟数值的波动区间, 且不同分位数值模拟图均能明显一致地指示出岩溶裂隙密集带和强径流带位置, 尤其是当样本点较少时, 也可获得几乎与样本点较多时的一致成果, 从而为该方法的推广应用提供了广阔的领域.Abstract: Aimed at the current difficult problem of fix quantitative forecast and math description about pore position in karstology, the water-bearing karst-fissure medium in Jinan spring area was selected as a typical research area because of its higherinvestigation degree, abundant data and typical representation. The connectivity among pore was studied and the position of karst-fissure concentration and strong runoff zones were forecasted by applying sequence-indicator conditional simulation. It shows that the method can give the fluctuation interval of simulated data, and at the same time, the obvious conformance of different quantile simulation map indicates the position of karst-fissure concentration and strong runoff zones, especially when sample size is small(the identical effect can be obtained as large sample size). Thereby, the method can be applied to a wider extent.
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图 2 渗透系数序列指示条件模拟均值等值线(122个样本点, 渗透系数单位m/d)
Fig. 2. Sequence-indicator conditional simulation of permeability coefficient of karst-fissure medium in studied area
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