基于MAPGIS的概率性地震危险性分析

张宝一; 龚平; 王丽芳

基于MAPGIS的概率性地震危险性分析

张宝一^{1, 2,},
龚平³,
王丽芳³

1.
中国地质大学研究生院, 湖北武汉 430074
2.
武汉中地数码科技有限公司, 湖北武汉 430074
3.
中国地震局地震研究所, 湖北武汉 430071

基金项目:

中国科学技术部社会公益研究专项资助项目 2001DIB20118

详细信息

作者简介:
张宝一(1979-), 男, 博士研究生, 主要研究方向为地图制图学与地理信息工程. E-mail: zhangbaoyi@hotmail.com

中图分类号: P208
计量
- 文章访问数: 3784
- HTML全文浏览量: 729
- PDF下载量: 20
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2006-05-30
- 刊出日期: 2006-09-25

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on MAPGIS

1.
Graduate School, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Wuhan Zondy Cyber-Tech Co. Ltd., Wuhan 430074, China
3.
Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China

摘要

摘要: 对工程场地的地震危险性分析是地震安全性评价的主要方法, 并且为工程师提供抗震参数.在分析国内概率性地震危险性分析(PSHA) 方法基础上, 提出了基于GIS的概率性地震危险性分析的可行性方案.通过MAPGIS二次开发编写了地震危险性分析程序, 并以三峡坝区某工程场地为例对程序进行了测试.基于MAPGIS的概率性地震危险性分析程序提供友好的人机交互界面, 提高了地震危险性分析的可操作性, 更重要的是帮助用户从空间数据中挖掘更多的信息.
- 概率性地震危险性分析 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- 空间分析
Abstract: Engineering seismic hazard analysis for a specified site represents an essential element of seismic safety assessment, and provides engineers with the standards of protection against earthquakes.In this paper, on the basis of investigation of the several PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) methods in China, the feasible methods and solutions of PSHA based on GIS were put forward. Through the secondary development of MAPGIS, a PSHA procedure is developed. Finally, a PSHA example in the Yangtze Gorges district has testified the feasibility of the procedure. The PSHA procedure based on MAPGIS not only provides users with interactive interface to improve maneuverability, but also mines the information of PSHA from geo-data.
- probabilistic seismic hazard analysis /
- geographical information system /
- spatial analysis

HTML全文

图 1 地震动超越概率的计算

Fig. 1. Calculating the probability using buffer analysis function

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 概率性地震危险性分析计算流程图(a) 和MAPGIS二次开发类库结构(b)

Fig. 2. Flowchart of PSHA computation (a) and structure of MAPGIS secondary development MFC (b)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 基于MAPGIS的地震危险性分析程序组织结构

Fig. 3. Framework of PSHA programme based on MAPGIS

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 峰值加速度超越概率等值线

Fig. 4. Isoline maps of PGAs' exceedance rates

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 潜在震源区示意图

Fig. 5. Sketch map of seismic sources

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 场地在t年内基岩峰值加速度的超越概率曲线

Fig. 6. PGA exceedance rates of site

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

参考文献(16)

Akkaya, A. D., Yücemen, M. S., 2002. Stochastic modelingor earthquake occurrences and esti mation of seismichazard: A random field approach. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 17: 1-13. doi: 10.1016/S0266-8920(01)00035-2
Bommer, J. J., 2003. Uncertainty about the uncertainty inseismic hazard analysis. Engineering Geology, 70: 165-168. doi: 10.1016/S0013-7952(02)00278-8
Casta os, H., Lomnitz, C., 2002. PSHA: Is it science?En-gineering Geology, 66: 315-317.
Cornell, C. A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58: 1583-1606. doi: 10.1785/BSSA0580051583
Cramer, C. H., 2001. A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone. Engineering Geology, 62: 251-266. doi: 10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00064-3
Gong, P., Zeng, X. C., Luo, Y. Z., 2000. Study on rationality and limitation of common probabilistic models for earth-quake occurrences in seismic risk analysis. Journal of Seismological Research, 23 (1): 57-62 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Kiureghian, A. D., Ang, A. H. S., 1977. A fault-rupturemodel for seismic risk analysics risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 67 (4): 1173-1194.
Leonard, G., Somer, Z., Horin, Y. B., et al., 2002. GIS as atool for seismological data processing. Pure Appl. Geophys., 159: 945-967. doi: 10.1007/s00024-002-8667-1
Lindhol m, C. D., Bungum, H., 2000. Probabilistic seismichazard: A review of the seismological frame of reference with examples from Norway. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 20 (1): 27-38.
McGurie, R. K., 1976. FORTRAN computer programs forseismic risk analysis. US Geol. Survey Open File Report, Washington, USA. 76-67.
Meletti, C., Patacca, E., Scandone, P., 2000. Construction of a seismotectonic model: The case of Italy. Pure Appl. Geophys., 157: 11-35. doi: 10.1007/PL00001089
Wang, M. F., Yin, H. W., Shen, P. S., et al., 2000. Improved method of seismic hazard assessment and its application. Journal of Hunan University (Natural Science Edition), 27 (5): 79-84 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang, Q. W., Zhang, P. Z., 1999. Application of geographic information system (GIS) to seismic risk analysis Crustal Deformation and Earthquake, 19 (1): 82-86 (in Chinese with English abstract).
龚平, 曾心传, 罗延钟, 2000. 地震危险性分析中常见地震发生概率模型的合理性及局限性研究. 地震研究, 23 (1): 57-62. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0666.2000.01.008
汪梦甫, 尹华伟, 沈蒲生, 等, 2000. 地震危险性分析方法的改进及其应用. 湖南大学学报(自然科学版), 27 (5): 78-84. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-2472.2000.05.016
张秋文, 张培震, 1999. 地理信息系统(GIS) 在地震危险性分析中的应用. 地壳形变与地震, 19 (1): 82-86. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKXB901.012.htm