Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Resources
-
摘要: 总结了气候变化对水文水资源影响方面的研究方法, 分析了气候变化条件下水文水资源变化的研究现状和存在问题.并以山西省和黄河源区为研究对象, 以分布式水文模型为工具、GCMs输出的气候情景为输入条件, 针对不同的下垫面特征建立不同的分布式水文模型, 分别采用气候情景趋势分析结果和直接利用GCMs输出结果两类方法确定气候变化的数据源, 对研究区域未来的地表径流过程和地表水资源可能的变化趋势进行了研究.从气候情景的预测结果来看, 未来50年山西省的气温和降水都呈增加趋势, 但由于各自对水资源带来的影响不同, 将使山西省水资源呈现先增加后减少的趋势; 且由于冬季气温和降水的增幅比夏季大, 使得未来山西省的水资源年内分布有略微平缓的趋势.对黄河源区而言, 虽然未来100年内的降水和气温都呈增加趋势, 但由于降水增长引起的地表水资源的增加不足以抵消气温升高带来的影响, 因此将导致径流量不断降低的总体趋势, 并使径流年内分布略趋平缓, 而年际分布将越来越不均匀, 旱涝威胁日趋严峻.Abstract: In recent years, climate change, with its far-reaching influences, has emerged as a popular issue.Among the various aspects of climate change, its impact on the terrestrial water cycle has been regarded as one of the most important issues, because it directly affects human settlement and ecosystem.The paper reviews previous studies first, and then pointed out their weakness and future research focuses.As practices, the impacts of climate change on surface runoff and water resources in Shanxi Province and the head region of Yellow River were studied here.And results of 7 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from IPCC Data Distribution Center web page was employed as future potential climate change.Different distributed hydrologic models based on local underlying surface were developed in order to evaluate the impacts on water resources.Future potential climate change of Shanxi Province were assessed by integrating outputs of GCMs, whereas which of the head region of Yellow River were come from results of different GCMs directly.Conclusionsshow that both precipitation and temperature of Shanxi Province would be increasing before 2050, but the surface water resources would increase before 2030 and then decrease, because the impact of future temperature increase on runoff would be less than that of precipitation increase before 2030 but more than it after 2030.And on the head region of Yellow River, temperature and precipitation would also increase.But the quantity of runoff would be decreasing in next 100 years for the region belongs to high and cold areas, which would make the impact of temperature increase on runoff larger than that of precipitation.And the distribution of runoff would be more even in years but more uneven among years, the latter may imply the higher possibility of drought and flood.
-
Key words:
- climate change /
- global climate model /
- distributed hydrological model /
- surface runoff
-
表 1 选用的气候模式
Table 1. Climate models employed
表 2 山西省未来气温变化(单位: ℃)
Table 2. Changes of future temperature in Shanxi Province
表 3 山西省未来降雨变化(单位: mm)
Table 3. Changes of future precipitation in Shanxi Province
表 4 山西省各行政区未来水资源变化趋势
Table 4. Trends of future water resources change in Shanxi Province
-
Alley, 1985. Water balance models in one month ahead stream flow forecasting. Water Resources Research, 21(4): 597-606. doi: 10.1029/WR021i004p00597 Chen, Y. Y., 2001. Future development of IGBP. Advance in Earth Sciences, 16(1): 15-18(in Chinese with English abstract). Dickinson, R E., 1989. A regional climate model for the western United States. Climate Change, 15(1): 383-422. Dickinson, R. E., 1995. Land-atmosphere interaction, U.S. national report to International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 1991-1994. Reviews of Geophysics, Supplement, 917-922. Ding, Y. H., 2002. Prediction of environmental changes in West China. In: Qin, D. H., ed., Evaluation of environmental changes in West China. Sciences Press, Beijing (in Chinese). Ding, Y. H., Geng, Q. Z., 1998. At mosphere, ocean, human activity and global warming. Meteorology Monthly, 24(3): 12-17. http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX803.003.htm Gates, W. L., 1985. The use of general circulation models in the analysis of the ecosystem impacts of climatic change. Climate Change, 7(1): 267-284. doi: 10.1007/BF00144171 Gleick, P. H., 1989. Climate change, hydrology and water resources. Reviews of Geophysics, 27(3): 329-344. doi: 10.1029/RG027i003p00329 Guo, S. L., 1995. I mpacts of climate change onflood frequencies and peak discharges. Advances in Water Science, 6(3): 224-230(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ503.008.htm Guo, S. L., Liu, C. Z., 1997. A hybrid model for optimal design of sprinkler irrigation system. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 7: 37-41(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB707.010.htm Hao, Z. C., Ren, L. L., Liu, X. R., 1999. Hydrological modeling in the coupledland-atmospheric model. In: Study on energy and water cycle over Huaihe River basinⅠ. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 237-245(in Chinese). Hao, Z. C., Su, F. G., Xie, Z. H., 2002. Macroscale hydrological modeling over the Huaihe River basin. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 16(3): 363-373. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-QXXW200203009.htm Hao, Z. C., Wang, J. H., Li, L., 2006. I mpact of climate change on runoff in the riverhead of Yellow River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 28(1): 1-7(in Chinese with English abstract). Heinrich, H., 1988. Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130 000 years. Quaternary Research, 29: 142-152. doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(88)90057-9 Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y. H., Griggs, D. J., et al., 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Krasovskaia, 1993. Frequency of extremes and its relation to climate fluctuations. Nordic Hydrology, 24(1): 1-12. doi: 10.2166/nh.1993.0001 Lan, Y. C., Ding, Y. J., Zhu, Y. T., et al., 2004. Possible change of runoff over the upper Yellow River basin under global-warming scenarios. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 26(6): 668-673(in Chinese with English abstract). Leung, L. R., Ghan, S. J., Zhao, Z. C., et al., 1999. Intercomparison of regional climate si mulations of the 1991 summer monsoonin eastern Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(D6): 6425-6454. doi: 10.1029/1998JD200016 Li, L., Hao, Z. C., Wang, J. H., 2004. Application of distributed hydrological model based on DEMin Sanmenxia-Xiaolangdi region of the Yellow River. Progressin Natural Science, 14(12): 1452-1458(in Chinese). Ma, T., Wang, Y. X., Hao, Z. C., 2001. The cause analysis for the declining discharge of Shentou Spring and forecast of its evolution trend. Carsologica Sinica, 20(4): 261-267(in Chinese with English abstract). Perry, J. S., 1993. Understanding our own planet: An overview of major international scientific activities. ICSU Secretariat. Qin, D. H., 2002. Evaluation of environmental changes in West China—Synthesis report. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese). Shi, Y. F., 2001. Esti mation of the water resources affected by climatic warming and glacier shrinkage before 2050 in WestChina. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 23(4): 333-341(in Chinese with English abstract). Sun, C. Q., Lin, H., Qu, J. S., 2003. Intel global change research key projects and partnership. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese). Sun, L., Wu, G. X., Sun, S. F., 2000. Numerical si mulations of effects of land surface processes on climate: Implementing of SSIB in IAP/LASG L9R15 and its performance. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 58(2): 179-193(in Chinese with English abstract). Wang, G. Q., Wang, Y. Z., Kang, L. L., 2002. Analysis on the sensitivity of runoff in Yellow River to climate change. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 13(1): 117-121(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX200201013.htm Wang, J., Shen, Y. P., Lu, A. X., et al., 2001. Impact of climate change on snow melt runoff in the mountainous rgions of Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 23(1): 28-33(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT200101004.htm Wang, J. H., Hao, Z. C., Jiang, T., et al., 2003. Study on reference evaporation in the Yangtze River catchment under increasing temperature. Journal of Lake Science, 15(Suppl. ): 277-288(in Chinese with English abstract). Wang, S. R., Huang, R. H., Ding, Y. H., et al., 2002. Numerical simulation experi ments by nesting hydrology model DHSVM with regional climate model RegCM2/China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 60(4): 421-427(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QXXW200204008.htm Xue, Y. K., Sellers, P. J., Kinter, J. L., et al., 1991. A simplified biosphere model for global climate studies. Journal of Climate, 4: 345-364. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0345:ASBMFG>2.0.CO;2 Yang, Z. N., Liu, X. R., Zeng, Q. Z., et al., 2000. Hydrology in cold regions of China. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese). Zeng, T., Hao, Z. C., Wang, J. H., 2004. Modeling the response of runoff to climate change. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 26(3): 324-332(in Chinese with English abstract). 陈宜瑜, 2001. IGBP未来发展方向. 地球科学进展, 16(1): 15-18. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2001.01.004 丁一汇, 2002. 中国西部环境变化的预测. 见: 秦大河, 主编, 中国西部环境演变评估(第二卷) 北京: 科学出版社. 郭生练, 1995. 气候变化对洪水频率和洪峰流量的影响. 水科学进展, 6(3): 224-230. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.1995.03.009 郭生练, 刘春蓁, 1997. 大尺度水文模型及其与气候模型的联结耦合研究. 水利学报, 7: 37-41. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB707.006.htm 郝振纯, 任立良, 刘新仁, 1999. 陆气耦合水文模式研究. 见: 淮河流域能量与水分循环研究(一). 北京: 气象出版社, 237-245. 郝振纯, 王加虎, 李丽, 2006. 气候变化下黄河源区径流量及径流特性的趋势分析. 冰川冻土, 28(1): 1-7. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2006.01.001 蓝永超, 丁永建, 朱云通, 等, 2004. 气候变暖情景下黄河上游径流的可能变化. 冰川冻土, 26(6): 668-673. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2004.06.002 李丽, 郝振纯, 王加虎, 2004. 基于DEM的分布式水文模型在黄河三门峡—小浪底的应用探讨. 自然科学进展, 14(12): 1452-1458. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1002-008X.2004.12.013 马腾, 王焰新, 郝振纯, 2001. 神头泉流量衰减原因分析及趋势预测, 中国岩溶, 20(4): 261-267. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4810.2001.04.003 秦大河, 2002. 中国西部环境演变评估综合报告. 北京: 科学出版社. 施雅风, 2001.2050年前气候变暖冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景预估. 冰川冻土, 23(4): 333-341. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2001.04.001 孙成权, 林海, 曲建升, 2003. 国际全球变化研究核心计划与集成研究. 北京: 气象出版社. 孙岚, 吴国雄, 孙菽芬, 2000. 陆面过程对气候影响的数值模拟: SSiB与IAP/LASG L9R15AGCM耦合及其模式性能. 气象学报, 58(2): 179-193. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2000.02.006 王国庆, 王云璋, 康玲玲, 2002. 黄河上中游径流对气候变化的敏感性分析. 应用气象学报, 13(1): 117-121. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2002.01.014 王建, 沈永平, 鲁安新, 等, 2001. 气候变化对中国西北地区山区融雪径流的影响. 冰川冻土, 23(1): 28-33. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2001.01.005 王加虎, 郝振纯, 姜彤, 等, 2003. 气温增加对长江流域参照蒸散发的影响研究. 湖泊科学, 15(增刊), 277-288. 王守荣, 黄荣辉, 丁一汇, 等, 2002. 水文模式DHSVM与区域气候模式RegCM2/China嵌套模拟试验. 气象学报, 60(4): 421-427. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2002.04.004 杨针娘, 刘新仁, 曾群柱, 等, 2000. 中国寒区水文. 北京: 科学出版社. 曾涛, 郝振纯, 王加虎, 2004. 气候变化对径流影响的模拟. 冰川冻土, 26(3): 324-332. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2004.03.014 -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(6) / 表(4)
计量
- 文章访问数: 3260
- HTML全文浏览量: 558
- PDF下载量: 262
- 被引次数: 0
