Earthquake Triggered Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation Based on GIS Platform and Weight-of-Evidence Modeling
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摘要: 汶川地震诱发了数以万计的滑坡灾害.应用地理信息系统与遥感技术, 选取地震烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流与公路8个因素作为汶川地震滑坡影响因子, 采用证据权方法, 对研究区内汶川地震滑坡进行灾害易发性研究.检验表明, 易发性评价结果的正确率达到81.855%.不同因子组合评价结果表明, 地震烈度对滑坡易发性分区结果影响最大, 而地质、地形、人类活动因素对地震滑坡影响相对较小.使用自然分类法则方法将研究区内滑坡按易发程度分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区5类, 极高易发区与高易发区面积之和约为11255.93km2, 占研究区总面积的23.12%, 其中发育滑坡面积为521.98km2, 占滑坡总面积的73.36%.Abstract: Wenchuan earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides. Eight factors that influence landslide occurrence, including seismic intensity, lithology, slope angle, faults, elevation, slope aspect, drainages, and roads were created in raster data format base on geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies. The landslide hazard map was derived by using weight-of-evidence modeling. Earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility zonings of other eight impact factor combination categories were analyzed and mapped one after another, using GIS raster analysis methods. The eight different impact factor combinations analysis suggests that seismic intensity play an important role in determining the landslide susceptibility index value, while geological, geomorphological, and human-related factors only play minor roles. The resulting susceptibility map was divided into five categories, i.e. extremely high, high, moderate, low, and extremely low by using Natural Breaks law. The validation results show satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide distributions in the form of area under curve (AUC) up to 81.855%. The area with extremely high and high susceptibility accounts for about 11255.93km2, 23.12% of the study area, including landslide areas of 521.98km2, 73.36% of all landslide occurrence areas.
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图 1 汶川地震诱发不同类型滑坡典型照片
a.密集发育的滑坡群；b.北川新中崩塌；c.北川老城王家岩滑坡；d.青川东河口高速远程碎屑流
Fig. 1. Different types of landslides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake
图 3 8种滑坡影响因子组合下的易发性评价成功率检验曲线
Fig. 3. Success rate curves of landslide susceptibility values calculated from 8 impact factor combinations
图 4 滑坡易发性统计分析结果
Fig. 4. Statistics analysis result of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility
表 1 基于汶川地震滑坡的8个影响因子各个等级证据权计算
Table 1. Computed weight-of-evidence for classes of various data layers based on Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides
影响因子及分级 栅格数 栅格数(%) 滑坡栅格数 滑坡栅格数(%) 比率 W+ W- Wf 地震烈度 1：Ⅵ 979925 0.8052 158 0.0089 0.011 -4.5217 0.0081 -4.5298 2：Ⅶ 33747147 27.7308 149764 8.4188 0.3036 -1.2024 0.2408 -1.4432 3：Ⅷ 54272356 44.5968 324309 18.2307 0.4088 -0.9033 0.3964 -1.2996 4：Ⅸ 18768949 15.4229 334017 18.7764 1.2174 0.2 -0.041 0.241 5：Ⅹ 8234811 6.7667 536805 30.1759 4.4594 1.5477 -0.2928 1.8406 6：Ⅺ 5692379 4.6776 433867 24.3893 5.2141 1.7159 -0.2347 1.9507 岩性 1：Ⅰ类 6180804 5.0789 14759 0.8297 0.1634 -1.8242 0.0445 -1.8686 2：Ⅱ类 8280948 6.8046 42522 2.3903 0.3513 -1.0558 0.047 -1.1027 3：Ⅲ类 4982141 4.0939 47192 2.6528 0.648 -0.4391 0.0151 -0.4542 4：Ⅳ类 12176668 10.0058 300024 16.8655 1.6856 0.5323 -0.0804 0.6127 5：Ⅴ类 75896394 62.3658 864346 48.5882 0.7791 -0.2529 0.3174 -0.5703 6：Ⅵ类 4957067 4.0733 22084 1.2414 0.3048 -1.1985 0.0295 -1.228 7：Ⅶ类 9221551 7.5776 487993 27.432 3.6202 1.3262 -0.245 1.5712 坡度 1：<10° 12787708 10.5079 38877 2.1854 0.208 -1.582 0.0903 -1.6723 2：10°~20° 12843642 10.5539 90244 5.073 0.4807 -0.7402 0.0604 -0.8006 3：20°~30° 28754523 23.6282 261487 14.6992 0.6221 -0.4802 0.1123 -0.5925 4：30°~40° 38904975 31.9691 555194 31.2096 0.9762 -0.0244 0.0113 -0.0357 5：40°~50° 22361909 18.3753 557180 31.3213 1.7045 0.5438 -0.175 0.7188 6：50°~60° 5306897 4.3608 226672 12.7421 2.922 1.1012 -0.093 1.1942 7：＞60° 735913 0.6047 49266 2.7694 4.5797 1.5762 -0.0223 1.5985 距离断裂 1：F1：0~500m 688074 0.565 13043 0.7332 1.2968 0.2643 -0.0017 0.266 2：F1：500~1000m 729475 0.5994 9953 0.5595 0.9334 -0.0699 0.0004 -0.0703 3：F1：1000~1500m 744900 0.6121 9449 0.5312 0.8678 -0.1438 0.0008 -0.1446 4：F1：1500~2000m 754383 0.6199 11191 0.6291 1.0148 0.0149 -0.0001 0.015 5：F1：2000~3000m 1500274 1.2328 24014 1.3499 1.095 0.0922 -0.0012 0.0934 6：F1：3000~4000m 1416755 1.1642 17210 0.9674 0.831 -0.1876 0.002 -0.1896 7：F2：0~500m 852199 0.7003 60812 3.418 4.8817 1.6448 -0.0282 1.673 8：F2：500~1000m 869094 0.7142 59611 3.351 4.6922 1.6022 -0.0273 1.6295 9：F2：1000~1500m 864559 0.7104 54352 3.0553 4.3007 1.509 -0.0243 1.5332 10：F2：1500~2000m 861783 0.7081 48112 2.7046 3.8192 1.3828 -0.0206 1.4034 11：F2：2000~3000m 1706741 1.4025 99394 5.5873 3.9839 1.4275 -0.044 1.4715 12：F2：3000~4000m 1656973 1.3616 86001 4.8345 3.5506 1.3057 -0.0364 1.3421 13：F3：0~500m 803491 0.6602 12786 0.7188 1.0886 0.0862 -0.0006 0.0868 14：F3：500~1000m 821666 0.6752 15426 0.8672 1.2843 0.2545 -0.002 0.2564 15：F3：1000~1500m 827863 0.6803 22523 1.2661 1.8612 0.6341 -0.006 0.6401 16：F3：1500~2000m 834363 0.6856 23191 1.3037 1.9014 0.6561 -0.0063 0.6624 17：F3：2000~3000m 1690111 1.3888 39192 2.2031 1.5864 0.4702 -0.0084 0.4786 18：F3：3000~4000m 1710914 1.4059 43339 2.4363 1.7329 0.5607 -0.0107 0.5714 19：缓冲区外 102361955 84.1131 1129321 63.4835 0.7547 -0.285 0.8517 -1.1367 高程 1：＜1000m 19799704 16.2699 182347 10.2504 0.63 -0.4675 0.0705 -0.538 2：1000~1500m 22965976 18.8717 565039 31.763 1.6831 0.5308 -0.1754 0.7062 3：1500~2000m 24682865 20.2825 405527 22.7962 1.1239 0.1187 -0.0325 0.1512 4：2000~2500m 17161003 14.1016 246511 13.8573 0.9827 -0.0177 0.0029 -0.0206 5：2500~3000m 12901928 10.6018 151924 8.5402 0.8055 -0.2191 0.0231 -0.2423 6：3000~3500m 9882054 8.1203 98787 5.5532 0.6839 -0.3847 0.028 -0.4126 7：3500~4000m 7228803 5.9401 84420 4.7456 0.7989 -0.2275 0.0128 -0.2403 8：4000~4500m 4825053 3.9649 32379 1.8201 0.4591 -0.7865 0.0224 -0.809 9：4500~5000m 1986444 1.6323 11807 0.6637 0.4066 -0.9087 0.0099 -0.9186 高程 10：5000~5500m 251341 0.2065 179 0.0101 0.0487 -3.0357 0.002 -3.0377 11：＞5500m 10396 0.0085 Nan Nan 0 -5.0383 0.0001 -5.0384 坡向 1：平坦 3030811 2.4905 9354 0.5258 0.2111 -1.5669 0.0202 -1.5871 2：北 13379293 10.9941 184407 10.3662 0.9429 -0.0596 0.0071 -0.0668 3：北东 14250052 11.7096 211530 11.8909 1.0155 0.0156 -0.0021 0.0177 4：东 16452226 13.5192 283102 15.9143 1.1772 0.1657 -0.0285 0.1942 5：南东 17322933 14.2346 304389 17.1109 1.2021 0.187 -0.0346 0.2216 6：南 15208207 12.4969 236407 13.2894 1.0634 0.0624 -0.0092 0.0717 7：南西 14126254 11.6079 185236 10.4128 0.8971 -0.1102 0.0136 -0.1238 8：西 13804928 11.3438 177945 10.003 0.8818 -0.1275 0.0152 -0.1428 9：北西 14120863 11.6034 186550 10.4867 0.9038 -0.1026 0.0127 -0.1154 距离水系 1：0~200m 30784000 25.2959 544210 30.5922 1.2094 0.193212 -0.0746 0.2678 2：200~400m 26700900 21.9407 458778 25.7897 1.1754 0.164236 -0.0513 0.2155 3：400~600m 20785063 17.0796 310642 17.4624 1.0224 0.0225 -0.0047 0.0272 4：600~800m 15768157 12.9571 200357 11.2628 0.8692 -0.14207 0.0196 -0.1616 5：800~1000m 10323135 8.4828 111587 6.2727 0.7395 -0.30568 0.0242 -0.3299 6：＞1000m 17334312 14.244 153346 8.6202 0.6052 -0.50807 0.0645 -0.5726 距离公路 1：0~1000m 9203286 7.5625 277079 15.5757 2.0596 0.7383 -0.092 0.8303 2：1000~2000m 8361515 6.8708 165543 9.3058 1.3544 0.3086 -0.0269 0.3355 3：2000~3000m 7852565 6.4526 125367 7.0474 1.0922 0.0895 -0.0065 0.096 4：3000~4000m 7454298 6.1254 105367 5.9231 0.967 -0.0341 0.0022 -0.0363 5：4000~5000 m 7026799 5.7741 86084 4.8391 0.8381 -0.179 0.01 -0.1891 6：＞5000m 81797110 67.2145 1019480 57.3089 0.8526 -0.1616 0.2685 -0.4301 
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表 2 不同滑坡易发性评价因子组合及AUC检验结果
Table 2. Different impact factor combinations for landslide susceptibility evaluation and AUC results
组合 因子列表 AUC(%) 全选 烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流、公路 81.855 组合1 烈度、坡度、坡向、高程、水系 80.569 组合2 烈度、坡度、坡向、高程、水系、岩性、断裂 81.682 组合3 烈度、坡度、坡向、高程、水系、公路 80.700 组合4 烈度、岩性、断裂、公路 80.144 组合5 烈度、岩性、坡度、公路 81.868 组合6 烈度、坡度、坡向、岩性、断裂、公路 81.861 组合7 岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流、公路 77.705
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表 3 滑坡易发性统计
Table 3. Susceptibility to landsliding
评价结果 预测(km2) 百分比(%) 实滑(km2) 百分比(%) 面密度(%) 极高易发区 3617.39 7.43 336.11 47.24 9.29 高易发区 7638.54 15.69 185.87 26.12 2.43 中易发区 14848.30 30.50 117.66 16.53 0.79 低易发区 17653.69 36.27 65.44 9.20 0.37 极低易发区 4920.29 10.11 6.48 0.91 0.13
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