Reliability Analysis of Stability of Fill Slope
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摘要: 为了系统地建立填土边坡稳定性的可靠度分析方法, 首先, 在可靠度分析原理的基础上, 对填土边坡的不确定性进行了讨论; 然后, 建立了多变量影响下填土边坡可靠度分析的基本流程; 最后, 以广西平乐县二塘锰矿区典型填土边坡为例, 基于GeoStudio软件, 应用所提出的分析流程对典型填土边坡的可靠度指标进行了计算, 通过"安全概率"对边坡的安全性进行了评价.研究结果表明: (1)填土边坡的不确定性包括内部结构和环境因素两方面, 前者不确定因素来自于填土土体不确定性和边坡的几何特征不确定性, 后者不确定性因素来自于降雨、地震和人工加载等; (2)可靠度分析的基本流程为填土边坡系统不确定性分析、建立可靠度极限状态方程、求解可靠度指标和边坡安全性评价; (3)广西平乐二塘锰矿填土边坡敏感性因素排序为: 内摩擦角Φ＞黏聚力C＞车辆荷载F; (4)考虑50年一遇极值降雨过程, 稳定性系数在降雨12 h达到最小, 其可靠度指标(β)为8.79, 破坏概率为0.根据《滑坡防治工程设计与施工技术规范》所规定的安全系数, 填土边坡的安全概率为69.84%.Abstract: In order to analyze reliability of the stability of fill slopes, first, uncertain factors of stability of slope are discussed on the basis of the reliability theory. Then, the basic process of reliability analysis of fill slope is established, considering multi-variables. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze typical fill slope in manganese mine located at Ertang village, Pingle county, Guangxi. Results show that the fill slope uncertainties include two aspects, namely, internal structure and environmental factors. The former is due to the uncertainty of soil and slope geometric characteristics, and the latter is due to the rainfall, earthquakes, artificial load and so on. The reliability analysis contains three steps including analyzing uncertainty of fill slope, establishing the equation of reliability analysis, calculating reliability index and evaluating slope safety. The sensitivity factors for analyzing slope stability is internal friction angle Φ > cohesion C > vehicle load F. When Considering the maximum rainfall of 50 years return period, the stability is lowest at 12 h in one rain course. Its reliability index (β) is 8.79 and the failure probability is 0. According to the safety factor of criterion, the safe probability of the fill slope is 69.84%.
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Key words:
- slope stability /
- reliability analysis /
- system uncertainty /
- safety probability /
- engineering geology
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图 1 不同施工技术填土结构特征(据陈团结和贾润萍, 2002)
a.分层压实填土结构；b.强夯法填土结构；c.不同压实技术填土压实度分布情况；d.平乐二塘锰矿填土压实度和黏聚力关系
Fig. 1. Fill soil structure of different compaction methods
图 8 单参数敏感性分析解结果
a.C值敏感性图；b.Φ值敏感性图；c.F值敏感性图
Fig. 8. Single parameter sensitivity analysis
图 9 50年重现期极值雨量边坡稳定性均值变化曲线
Fig. 9. Mean curve of slope stability with maximum rainfall of 50-year return period
图 10 50年重现期极值雨量边坡稳定性概率
a.稳定性分布概率；b.稳定性累计概率
Fig. 10. Slope stability probability with maximum rainfall of 50-year return period
表 1 平乐二塘锰矿区典型填土边坡可靠度分析参数
Table 1. Typical fill slope reliability analysis parameters in Ertang Manganese Mine, Pingle
统计特征 填土物理参数 降雨量 车辆加载kN 粘聚力C(KPa) 重度γ(kN/m3) Φ(°) 次降雨量重现期(mm) 降雨强度(mm/h) 均值 23 17.4 19.5 20 a/250 20 a/15 250.7 50 a/300 50 a/20 方差 1.80 1.50 1.50 51.3 概率模型 正态分布 正态分布 正态分布 极值分布 极值分布 正态分布 
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表 2 填土边坡不同滑面最小稳定性系数结果比较
Table 2. Minimum stability coefficient of fill slope with different slip surface
项目名称 本文(抛物线)法 圆弧法 ordinary Bishop 最小稳定性系数 1.15 1.39 1.50 滑动面形状 抛物线形 圆弧形
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表 3 50年重现期极值雨量边坡稳定性均值
Table 3. Mean stability coefficient of fill slope with rainfall of 50-year return period
时间(h) 计算方法 ordinary Bishop Janbu M-P 0 1.189 1.251 1.152 1.245 1 1.161 1.221 1.128 1.215 4 1.143 1.200 1.112 1.195 12 1.059 1.106 1.036 1.102 24 1.076 1.137 1.048 1.132 36 1.093 1.176 1.057 1.169 48 1.100 1.183 1.063 1.176
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