中小流域山洪危险性区划

陆桂华; 钟凌; 吴志勇; 何海

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2014.136

中小流域山洪危险性区划

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.136

陆桂华^{1, 2,},
钟凌^{1, 2},
吴志勇^{1, 2},
何海^{1, 2}

1.
河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏南京 210098
2.
河海大学水问题研究所, 江苏南京 210098

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 2010CB428405

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目 201301040

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目 201301070

详细信息

作者简介:
陆桂华(1962-), 男, 教授, 主要从事水文水资源和水文气象方面研究.E-mail: lugh@hhu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P343
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-02-27
- 刊出日期: 2014-10-01

Zoning of Mountain Torrent Hazards in Medium-Small River Basins

Lu Guihua^{1, 2
,},
Zhong Ling^{1, 2},
Wu Zhiyong^{1, 2},
He Hai^{1, 2}

1.
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2.
Institute of Water Problems, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

摘要

摘要: 山洪危险性区域划分是一种行之有效的防洪减灾非工程措施，是防洪减灾体系中的重要组成部分.利用GIS技术和模糊数学方法建立山洪危险性评价模型；从山洪危险性定义出发，利用正交设计方法，考察降雨量和单位面积汇流时间等对山洪影响的敏感性，确定了合理的山洪危险性评价指标体系并结合层次分析法确定了评价指标权重.选择淮河上游息县流域进行了实证应用分析，对研究区域山洪危险性空间分布进行划分.研究结果表明：单位面积汇流时间短、地势起伏较大的地区是山洪危险性较大的区域，需要加强防治.
- 洪水灾害 /
- 评价模型 /
- 危险性分析 /
- 正交设计 /
- 水文地质
Abstract: As one of the effective non-engineering measurements, zoning of mountain torrent hazards is an important part of flood prevention and disaster mitigation system. A torrent hazard evaluation model is built by using GIS spatial analysis and modeling techniques and fuzzy mathematics method in this paper, in which the evaluation index weight is determined with analytic hierarchy process according to the results of orthogonal analysis. In addition, seven factors are chosen as the new evaluation index system to evaluate the torrent hazards, combined with the definition of mountain torrent hazard and the analysis of factors causing mountain torrent disaster, with the application of orthogonal design method, and the observed influence degree of rainfall and conflux time on mountain torrent. The areas of the upper reach of the Huaihe River were chosen as the case study area of mountain torrent hazards zonation. The results show that areas with the shortest confluence time and the largest hypsographic feature are the most dangerous areas.
- flood damage /
- evaluation model /
- hazard analysis /
- orthogonal design /
- hydrogeology

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图 1 指标处理结果

a.各子流域单位面积汇流时间(取倒数)；b.高程标准差；c.20年一遇年最大6 h降雨量；d.河网密度

Fig. 1. Results of index processing

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 息县上游流域山洪危险性评价

a.使用指标体系A的山洪危险性评价结果；b.使用指标体系B的山洪危险性评价结果

Fig. 2. The torrent hazard evaluation map of the upper reach of the Xixian

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 评价指标数据层的间隔点设置

Table 1. The interval of evaluation index

评价指标	D₁	D₂	D₃	D₄	D₅
20年一遇年最大6 h降雨量(mm)	74	84	94	104	114
20年一遇年最大1 h降雨量(mm)	23	38	53	68	83
植被覆盖(取倒)	1.23	1.37	1.51	1.65	1.79
河网密度(m·m^-²)	0.001 8	0.002 9	0.004 0	0.005 1	0.006 2
高程标准差(m)	7.34	14.62	21.90	29.18	36.46
土壤类型指数	1	2	3	4	5
前期土壤含水量(%)	20	40	60	80	100
单位面积汇流时间(取倒数)(km²·h^-1)	178.57	196.42	214.27	232.12	249.97
注：D₁，D₂，D₃，D₄和D₅为各评价指标间隔设置；前期土壤含水量为土壤实际水分含量占田间持水量的百分比.

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表 2 因素水平

Table 2. The factor level

水平	A(mm)	B(km²·h^-1)	C(m)
1	1 h降雨量	无	无
2	6 h降雨量	计算值	实际值
注：因素A，B和C分别为降雨量、单位面积汇流时间(取倒数)和高程标准差，且因素B和C的第一个水平“无”表示评价时不考虑该指标.

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表 3 正交设计结果及分析

Table 3. The results and analysis of orthogonal design

方案/其他	A(mm)	B(km²·h^-1)	C(m)	评价结果
1	1 h	无	无	2
2	1 h	计算值	实际值	4
3	6 h	无	实际值	4
4	6 h	计算值	无	3
K1	6	6	5
K2	7	7	8
k1	3	3	2.5
k2	3.5	3.5	4.0
极差	0.5	0.5	1.5
最优方案	A2	B2	C2
注：1、2、3、4为4种方案的编号，因素A，B和C含义同表 2，A2表示降雨量的第2个水平，即6 h降雨量，B2，C2含义类似；因素主次顺序为C、A、B.

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