Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (Ms6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust
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摘要: 2014年8月3日16时30分, 在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N, 103.3°E)发生Ms6.5地震, 震源深度10 km, 死亡617人, 失踪112人, 受伤3 143人, 受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应, 总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期, 具备Ms7地震的发生条件.次年, 利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息, 制定了2014年底211号地震预测表, 预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N, 105.33°E)将发生Ms5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Ms6.5地震表明: 这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天, 震中相差226 km, 震级误差Ms1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究, NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置, 为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.Abstract: At 16:30 of August 3rd, 2014, an earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province (27.1°N, 103.3°E). The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km. Due to this disaster, 617 people were died, 112 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured. According to the superposition effects of the moon declination angle, sunspot extreme year cycles and the two, summed up 2013—2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of Ms7 earthquake. The following year, forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument, developed by the end of 2014 211 earthquake prediction table, predict 2014 August Sichuan (26.18°N, 105.33°E) Ms5.3 earthquake will occur. The Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3, 2014 indicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day, the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earthquake epicenter. Besides that the actual magnitude is Ms 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude. According to the comprehensive analysis in tectonic setting, the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake, we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake, while the junction of the middle-low crust's low-velocity (high-conductivity) body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accumulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes.
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图 1 云南鲁甸地震区域构造背景
F1.安宁河断裂；F2.则木河断裂带；F3.小江断裂带北段；F4.大凉山断裂带；F5.峨边-烟峰断裂带；F6.马边-盐津断裂带；F7.莲峰断裂带；F8.龙树断裂；F9.鲁甸-昭通断裂；F10.会泽-彝良断裂带；F11.华蓥山断裂带；F12.包谷垴-小河断裂；AB.研究区内S波速度结构剖面位置；震源机制解资料来自CMT，http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html
Fig. 1. The tectonic background of Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province
图 2 2014年7月30日(a) 与2014年3月30日(b)第六通道“指纹”对比
Fig. 2. Comparison between fingerprints from the channel 6 observed on July 30th, 2014(a) and on March 30th, 2014(b)
图 3 地壳及上地幔S波速度结构剖面(张晓曼等，2011)
Fig. 3. The profile of S-wave velocity structure of crust and upper mantle
图 4 研究区8-638阶(10 km)卫星重力异常及历史地震分布
Fig. 4. The satellite gravity anomalies of 8-638 order and history earthquakes distribution map in study area
表 1 20世纪以来白赤交角、太阳黑子与云南强震关系
Table 1. The relationship among the moon declination angle, sunspot number and major earthquake in Yunnan province
白赤交角 太阳黑子 云南强震活跃期 震级大于Ms7.0强震 最大年 最小年 谷值 峰值 1913 1922 1913 1917 第1活跃期 1913峨山Ms7.0 1923 1925大理凤仪Ms7.0 1932 1941 1933 1937 第2活跃期 1941澜沧耿马Ms7.0 1944 1941勐海Ms7.0 1950 1959 1954 1957 1950勐海Ms7.0 1969 1978 1968 第3活跃期 1970通海峨山Ms7.7 1964 1974昭通大关Ms7.1 1976 1976龙陵Ms7.3 1976龙陵Ms7.4 1987 1996 1989 第4活跃期 1988澜沧Ms7.6 1986 1988耿马Ms7.2 1996 1995孟连Ms7.3 1996丽江Ms7.0 2005—2007 2014—2016 2009 2014 第5活跃期 只发生了普洱Ms6.4(2007年)、盈江Ms5.9(2008年)、本次鲁甸Ms6.5(2014年)和景谷Ms6.6(2014年)地震.暂未发生Ms7.0以上地震 2022 注：观测确定2008—2009年为太阳黑子谷年，2014年预测为太阳黑子峰年(据胡辉等(2003)，杨冬红(2009)，杨冬红和杨学祥(2013)修改). 
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