GPS-Constrained Inversion of Slip Rate on Major Active Faults in the Northeastern Margin of Tibet Plateau
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摘要: GPS测量可以提供高精度的时空图像, 但前任对比研究尚未深入.通过使用线性球面块体模型理论, 在前人针对活动块体研究的基础上, 建立青藏高原东北缘地区三维块体几何模型.以1999—2007年的GPS水平速度场数据作为约束, 反演得到青藏高原东北缘的主要活动断裂长期滑动速率和广义海原断裂带的空间亏损滑动分布及其耦合变化.上述结果为青藏高原东北缘现今运动变形的动力学和强震中-长期危险性预测研究提供了约束和参考.Abstract: GPS mwasurements can provide a high accuracy of spatio-temporal images, but there aren't enough study about it. We use the spherical linear block theory constrained by geodetic observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations to estimate fault slip rates on the Northeastern margin of Tibet plateau and spatially variable coupling on Haiyuan fault in abroad sense. The 3D geometric block model is based on the previous researches of active block. The result provides a new constraint and reference for the geodynamics of present crustal deformation and the middle-long term strong earthquake hazard study in this area.
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图 1 青藏高原东北缘主要活动断裂(黑线)分布
主要活动断裂据文献(袁道阳等，2004b)，插图中红色虚线框表示研究区位置; F1.东昆仑断裂；F2.大柴旦-宗务隆山断裂；F3.西秦岭北缘断裂；F4.鄂拉山断裂；F5.日月山断裂；F6.庄浪河断裂；F7.马衔山断裂；F8.六盘山断裂；F9.陇县-宝鸡断裂；F10.党河-南山断裂；F11-1.海原断裂哈拉湖段；F11-2.海原断裂祁连段；F11-3.海原断裂毛毛山-老虎山段；F11-4.海原断裂海原段；F12.旱峡-大黄沟断裂；F13.佛洞庙-红崖子断裂；F14.肃南断裂；F15.民乐-永昌断裂；F16.合黎山南缘断裂；F17.昌马-俄博断裂；F18.榆木山北缘断裂；F19.榆木山东缘断裂；F20.阿尔金断裂；F21.金塔-花海断裂；F22.龙首山北缘断裂；F23.武威-天祝断裂
Fig. 1. Main active faults (black lines) in the northeastern margin of Tibet plateau
图 2 青藏高原东北缘块体模型的块体边界(红色线)和断裂(灰色线)
附图表示本文块体模型总图，红线表示块体边界；A.柴达木次级块体；B.共和次级块体；C.西宁次级块体；D.兰州次级块体；E.甘南次级块体；F.柴北次级块体；G.祁连次级块体；H.河西次级块体；I.华南地块；J.鄂尔多斯地块；K.阿拉善地块；L.阿坝次级地块
Fig. 2. Block boundaries (red lines) of the block model of the northeastern margin of Tibet plateau
图 3 青藏高原东北缘GPS速度场
附图表示总的GPS速度场；相对于欧亚板块，误差椭圆代表 70%的置信区间
Fig. 3. GPS velocity field of the northeastern margin of Tibet plateau
图 4 青藏高原东北缘断层最优闭锁深度
a.青藏高原东北缘平均值；b.老虎山断裂；c.海原断裂西段；d.海原断裂东段；e.六盘山断裂；f.西秦岭北缘断裂断裂
Fig. 4. Optimal fault locking depths for the northeastern margin of Tibet plateau
图 5 青藏高原东北缘模拟GPS速度场
附图为总的模拟GPS速度场
Fig. 5. Modeled GPS velocities of the northeastern margin of Tibet plateau
图 6 GPS观测值与模拟值的残差
a.研究区残差速度场；b.残差速度场；c.残差分布
Fig. 6. Residual velocities (the difference between the predicted and the GPS site velocities)
图 7 青藏高原东北缘模型的主要断裂活动速率
a.走滑速率；b.倾滑速率
Fig. 7. Predicted fault slip rates along major active faults
图 8 平滑因子迭代测试结果
a.毛毛山-老虎山段：灰色曲线代表极值，黑色曲线代表平均值，虚线代表由块体相对运动计算出的走滑速率; b.拟合速度场数据统计与平滑因子的函数关系：黑色曲线代表平均残差速度大小，灰色曲线表示残差大小小于GPS观测值平均误差的测站数所占总测站数百分比
Fig. 8. Results of the smoothing iteration tests on Maomaoshan-Laohushan fault TDE elements
图 9 广义海原断裂带断层滑动及耦合分布
a.走滑速率：正值代表左旋走滑; b.倾滑速率：正值代表逆冲速率; c.滑动耦合分布
Fig. 9. Slip rates and coupling fraction estimated on Haiyuan fault
表 1 模拟主要断裂的滑动速率
Table 1. Predicted fault slip rates on major faults
断裂 分段 走滑速率①(mm/a) 挤压/拉张速率②(mm/a) 东昆仑断裂 北西西段 14.8±2.5 0.3±3.7 索托湖段 14.4±1.8 -3.6±5.2 玛沁段 10.2±2.6 -1.4±2.3 玛曲段 9.4±2.0 -5.5±2.6 祁连北缘断裂 旱峡-大黄沟 0.5±1.1 -7.0±3.8 佛洞沟-红崖子 0.2±1.2 -5.1±2.5 民乐-永昌 -0.6±1.3 -1.1±2.4 榆木山北缘断裂 2.6±1.3 -3.1±1.9 榆木山东缘断裂 -1.6±1.6 -3.2±1.5 昌马-俄博断裂 -0.5±1.2 0.7±3.6 党河-南山断裂 西段 3.6±2.7 1.0±3.9 中段 3.6±3.2 -1.4±2.6 东段 4.2±1.9 -0.2±3.8 海原断裂 哈拉湖段 4.5±2.4 -1.1±1.7 祁连段 7.5±1.4 -2.3±3.0 毛毛山-老虎山段 8.4±1.1 -2.6±1.3 海原段 7.8±0.9 -1.2±1.1 六盘山断裂 3.2±1.2 -3.2±0.8 陇县-宝鸡断裂 3.9±1.2 0.1±1.4 大柴旦-宗务 西段 -2.9±3.0 -7.3±2.5 隆山断裂 东段 -0.6±2.1 -3.7±4.1 西秦岭北缘断裂 漳县段 0.3±1.5 1.3±1.7 武山段 2.2±1.3 -1.4±1.1 天水段 2.5±1.3 -3.9±2.5 鄂拉山断裂 北段 -0.6±4.0 0 南段 -2.6±3.6 1.7±3.8 日月山断裂 北段 -2.1±1.8 1.2±1.8 南段 -3.9±2.5 -1.6±2.8 庄浪河断裂 -0.5±1.3 -0.1±1.4 马衔山断裂 -1.2±1.5 -1.8±1.1 合黎山南缘断裂 -2.0±0.9 1.0±1.5 武威-天祝断裂 -2.7±1.4 -2.1±2.1 注: ①正值代表左旋, 负值代表右旋; ②正值代表拉张, 负值代表挤压. 
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