Mechanism of Sea Level Change at the Earth Orbital Parameter Cycles during the Last 2 Ma BP
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摘要: 海平面的变化往往对区域生态环境、社会经济造成严重影响.通过对全球相对海平面变化(relative sea level，简称RSL)记录的再分析结果，合成了近2 Ma BP以来的全球RSL变化记录，分析了合成RSL记录对原始RSL记录数理特征的继承性，并基于频谱、滤波等数理分析验证了合成RSL记录的合理性.在此基础上，讨论了合成RSL与大气CO2浓度、中高纬度海域表层海水温度(sea surface temperature，简称SST)、全球大洋底栖氧同位素(δ18OB)等参数指标间的相关性，结果显示：(1) 合成RSL不仅与原始RSL记录的变化趋势基本一致，继承了原始RSL记录对全球气候变化的响应特征，而且显示出合成RSL记录对地球轨道参数周期变化响应明显；(2) 近2 Ma BP以来，在冰期-间冰期旋回中，合成RSL与δ18OB变化呈良好的负相关，相关系数r平均值可以达到约0.81，高于合成RSL与大气CO2浓度及中高纬度海域SST变化的相关系数；(3) 在地球轨道参数周期上，合成RSL与极地冰盖体积(δ18OB)的变化几乎同时，在偏心率周期上，合成RSL落后于SST和大气CO2浓度变化；在斜率周期上，合成RSL落后于SST变化而领先于大气CO2浓度变化.推测这些变化的诱导因素可能是在太阳辐射量改变的前提下，大气CO2浓度及大洋SST变化对极地冰盖体积产生了差异影响，进而引起海平面发生变化.Abstract: Sea level change usually has great impact on global (or regional) ecological environment and social economy. Based on the published records of relative sea level (RSL), one new stacked RSL is reconstructed in this paper, and the correlations between the new stacked RSL and original records are analyzed. In addition, the reliability and rationality of the new stacked RSL are tested and verified respectively by Spectrum and Filtering analysis. Furthermore, the evolutionary history and correlations between the stacked RSL and atmospheric CO2 concentration, sea surface temperature (SST) in middle-high latitudinal oceans and benthic oxygen isotope (δ18OB) record are separately discussed in detail. The results show that: (1) the new stacked RSL has the similar change trend to the original RSL records during the last 2 Ma BP, and the correlation coefficients are all nearly 0.9. Meanwhile, the new stacked RSL also responds well to the global climate change events at the earth orbital parameter cycles; (2) The new stacked RSL and LR04-δ18OB have high negative correlation in glacial-interglacial cycles during the last 2 Ma BP, with the correlation coefficient of about 0.81, which is much higher than those of the new stacked RSL with SST and atmospheric CO2 concentration; (3) Based on the cross-spectral analytical results between the new stacked RSL and CO2, SST and δ18OB, individually, the new stacked RSL is nearly in phase with δ18OB, and both lags SST and CO2 at the eccentricity band, and lags SST but leads CO2 at the obliquity band. It is concluded that the polar ice sheet volume was influenced by changes of SST and atmospheric CO2 concentration, which might be caused by the change of solar insolation and finally influenced the sea level change at the earth orbital parameter cycles.
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Key words:
- sea level /
- polar ice sheet /
- correlations /
- 2 Ma BP /
- climate change
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图 1 LR04-δ18O记录和ODP846-δ18O、地中海-δ18O记录的对比
a.LR04-δ18O记录(Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005)；b.ODP846-δ18O记录(Shackleton et al., 1995)；c.地中海-δ18O记录(Lourens, 2004; Wang et al., 2010).图(b)和(c)中数值表示ODP846-δ18O和地中海-δ18O记录与LR04-δ18O记录“峰对峰，谷对谷”的对比中的年龄差异
Fig. 1. Comparison between LR04-δ18O stack and ODP846-δ18O, Mediterranean δ18O stack
图 2 近2 Ma BP以来合成RSL与LR04-δ18OB记录变化
a.LR04-δ18OB记录(Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005)；b.近2 Ma以来合成RSL变化记录(黑色实线)：红色虚线来源于Miller et al.(2005)；绿色虚线来源于Rohling et al.(2014)；蓝色虚线来源于Waelbroeck et al.(2002)，作为参考记录.拟合方法为将各个记录的线性趋势去掉，再计算平均值后加上平均线性趋势得到
Fig. 2. Changes of RSL stack and LR04 stack during the last 2 Ma BP
图 3 近2 Ma BP以来合成RSL记录的频谱分析
a.2 000~900 ka时间段RSL的频谱分析结果，显示较强的40 ka周期，100 ka周期信号不明显；b.900~0 ka时间段RSL的频谱分析结果，显示较强的100 ka周期和较弱的40 ka周期.90%、95%、99%表示置信度，分析软件为Redfit35(Schulz and Mudelsee, 2002)
Fig. 3. Spectrum results of RSL stack during the last 2 Ma BP
图 4 近2 Ma BP以来合成RSL记录与LR04-δ18OB在地球轨道参数周期上的滤波分析
a.为合成RSL记录；b.100 ka偏心率周期滤波；c.40 ka斜率周期滤波；d.20 ka岁差周期滤波的中心频率和带宽分别为0.01 ka-1和0.003 105 ka-1、0.024 390 ka-1和0.002 654 ka-1及0.047 610 ka-1和0.010 250 ka-1，黑色曲线代表合成的RSL记录的滤波，右侧纵横数据代表RSL记录的滤波振幅；灰色曲线代表LR04-δ18OB记录的滤波，左侧纵横数据代表LR04-δ18OB记录的滤波振幅.图中矩形框指示“MPT”事件发生的主要阶段
Fig. 4. Filtering results of RSL stack and LR04-δ18OB stack in orbital cycles during the last 2 Ma BP
图 5 近2 Ma BP以来合成RSL记录与大气CO2浓度、SST、LR04-δ18OB记录变化对比
a.合成RSL变化趋势及其小波分析；b.近800 ka BP以来南极冰心中大气CO2浓度记录和近2 Ma BP以来合成大气CO2浓度变化及其小波分析，2 Ma BP以来的大气CO2浓度变化计算方法来自参考文献(Lüthi et al., 2008; Lisiecki, 2010)，得出公式：大气CO2浓度=1/2×60.092×(δ13CB-南大洋+δ13CB-北大西洋)+239.35，相关系数r大于0.6，δ13CB数据来源于Wang et al.(2010)；c.合成中高纬度SST变化趋势(数据来源见表 1)及其小波分析；d.LR04-δ18OB变化趋势及其小波分析.图中纵向阴影代表间冰期；小波分析结果中黑色等值线代表红噪假设下显著性水平为5%的区域.小波分析方法由Grinsted et al.(2004)提供
Fig. 5. Comparison between RSL stack and CO2, SST and δ18OB records during the last 2 Ma BP
图 6 近2 Ma BP以来合成RSL与各参数的相关性及交叉频谱分析
中文a.合成RSL与大气CO2浓度变化相关性及其交叉频谱分析；b.合成RSL与中高纬度SST变化相关性及其交叉频谱分析；c.合成RSL记录与LR04-δ18OB记录相关性及其交叉频谱分析.左侧相关性分析图中蓝色字体为冰期相关性，红色为间冰期相关性，黑色为近2 Ma BP以来冰期-间冰期旋回中的相关性(图中相关性分析数据为各参数指标在冰期，间冰期内的平均值；频谱分析数据为插值后的数据)；右侧频谱图中段划线代表 80%置信度，点划线代表 95%置信度，交叉频谱图中带黄-紫色阴影区表示相位关系及偏差，80%或95%代表置信度.分别对大气CO2浓度与合成RSL值进行了800 ka BP以来与2 Ma BP以来的交叉频谱分析，结果基本一致.图中为近2 Ma BP以来的交叉频谱分析结果注解
Fig. 6. Relationships and cross-spectral analyses between RSL stack and other proxies
表 1 文章涉及到数据的来源
Table 1. Resources of data in this paper
参数 时间长度(Ma) 原始平均分辨率(ka) 参考文献 备注 RSL 0.45 0.5 Waelbroeck et al., 2002 仅作为参考 543.00 ≥5.0 Miller et al., 2005 0~9.25 Ma，平均分辨率为5 ka 5.30 2.0~3.0 Rohling et al., 2014 - SST 3.50 3.0 Martnez-Garcia et al., 2010 北太平洋ODP882 4.01 4.0 Lawrence et al., 2009 北大西洋ODP982 3.60 3.2 Martnez-Garcia et al., 2010 南大洋ODP1090 1.96 1.5 本文，未发表数据 南大洋ODP1170 CO2 0.79 0.7 Lüthi et al., 2008 南极冰心 LR04-δ18OB 5.30 2.5 Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005 全球底栖有孔虫氧同位素合成曲线 
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表 2 合成RSL变化与其他参数在地球轨道参数周期上的相关性
Table 2. Cross-spectral relationships and coherencies between RSL stack and other proxies
偏心率周期(100 ka) 斜率周期(40 ka) 岁差周期(23 ka) 岁差周期(19 ka) 相关系数 相位差* 相关系数 相位差 相关系数 相位差 相关系数 相位差 RSL vs CO2 0.930 9 -12.30°±15.2° 0.980 2 23.50°±8.0° 0.742 5 30.20°±31.3° 0.553 4 28.20°±46.1° RSL vs SST 0.904 2 -29.70°±18.1° 0.928 8 -27.20°±16.1° 0.564 1 -80.30°±45.4° 0.295 8 -2.60°±66.4° RSL vs δ18OB 0.981 6 -3.60°±11.1° 0.969 5 7.70°±9.7° 0.911 0 -6.10°±17.4° 0.781 7 6.10°±28.9° 注：“*”相位差为正值代表RSL变化领先其他参数，负值代表RSL变化落后其他参数.
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