Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains
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摘要: 目前, 国内普遍使用的“简单加和”或“概率加权加和”方法计算的区带或三(四)级圈闭资源量很大程度上与实际地质情况并不吻合.在PetroV开发过程中, 设计并实现了一种可充分考虑不同地质条件约束的油气资源量计算方法——以不确定性体积法的随机蒙氏模拟为基础, 对最新地质上识别出的、不可切分的含油气聚集单元, 进行符合不同地质模型约束的取样、组合; 在明确了哪些单元才应该同时出现的基础上, 将其他不同地质条件约束有机融合到模拟过程中, 客观描述各个计算单元体积模型的不确定性.从实例计算结果分析可以看出, “概率组合加和”可获取更加符合当前地质模型的不确定性油气资源量计算结果, 显著提升勘探部署项目优选排队的合理性.Abstract: Resources of the zone or the 3rd (or the 4th) tectonic trap are often evaluated by directly and simply cumulating the resources size of its segments weighted by discovery probability in China. Obviously, not all segments certainly have been discovered due to constraints of special geological conditions. In addition, prediction value generally doesn't honestly reflect the practical geological model if quantifying the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and Monte Carlo simulation process is ignored. For the development of PetroV, an improved non-deterministic volumetric method with quantifying kinds of geological constraints is devised in the paper: to sample and composite the undivided segments which should stay in the same combination, then quantify impact caused by the key geological factors in order to objectively delineate volumetric uncertainty. It is confirmed by applications and detailed analysis that "combination probability cumulating" method proposed in this paper could explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scenarios, which leads to more reasonable exploration strategies.
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图 1 剖分前与剖分后油气聚集单元地质模型示意
a.剖分前定义两个油气聚集单元; b.基于断层与储层条件进一步剖分4个油气聚集单元
Fig. 1. Geological model between original and anatomized units
图 2 不确定性体积法计算参数及结果分布
Fig. 2. ontecarlo simulation process of uncertainty volumetric method
图 3 油气聚集单元的相互依赖性
右图划分为10个格，代表 10个概率刻度，从0.0到1.0，图只标出了实际最大概率值0.3；A与B用以代表三角洲沉积环境下两种不同沉积亚相成因的圈闭，具有部分相同成藏条件又各自有局部成藏条件
Fig. 3. Types of discovery risk dependency between petroleum assessment units
图 4 层间上、下叠置影响示意
a.上部储层变厚或变薄直接决定了下部储层的厚薄；b.油水界面的变化直接决定了上、下两层的有效含油气体积
Fig. 4. Kinds of geological effects caused by stabbed horizons
图 5 断层封闭性对油气充注的影响
a.封闭断层；b.连通断层
Fig. 5. Sealing or leak directly affects HC volume of up and down block
图 6 “完全决定”的地质涵义与不确定性资源量计算结果示意
Fig. 6. Compositions and corresponding resource distribution of "discovery full risk dependency"
图 7 “概率组合加和”算法的自顶到底的分解模式
A、B、C、D为次级圈闭，E和G为三级或四级圈闭
Fig. 7. Top-down composition model of probability combinatory accumulation
图 8 滩Ⅰ断块中生界顶层构造
Fig. 8. The structural sketch of top boundary of Mesozoic in Tan Ⅰ block
图 9 “部分决定时”多个次级圈闭含油气概率树组合概率计算
Fig. 9. Probability tree modified following the "discovery partial dependency" geological constraint
表 1 体积法计算资源量的相关参数
Table 1. Core parameters involved by volumetric method
运算符 体积参数 计算结果 含油气面积 × 总厚度 × 几何因子 岩石总体积 × 净毛比 有效岩石体积 × 孔隙度 孔隙体积 × 含油饱和度 含油气孔隙体积 × 1/体积系数 地质资源量(体积单位) × 采收率 × 转换因子 可采资源量(体积单位) 
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表 2 反映影响圈闭的各种地质因素
Table 2. Key geological conditions for one trap
圈闭及封盖 储层发育参数 储层质量参数 溢出点深度 厚度 凝析油产量 圈闭充注 净毛比 气油比 砂地比 NGL Yield 净储层比 采收率 孔隙度 含油气饱和度
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表 3 二个次级圈闭的含油气组合概率计算(完全决定)
Table 3. Calculation demo of discovery full risk dependency between two trap segments
公式 评价因子 A B 含油气概率 P1 圈闭条件 0.8 0.8 P2 储层条件 0.7 0.7 P3 盖层条件 0.8 0.6 P4 烃源岩条件 0.6 0.6 P(S)=P1×P2 边际概率 0.56 0.56 P(X|S)=P3×P4 条件概率 0.48 0.36 P(X)=P(X|S)×P(S) 非条件(后验)概率 0.27 0.20 A和B同时出现=P(S)×P(A|S)×P(B|A)，其中P(B|A)=P(B|S)/P(A|S) 0.20 仅A出现=P(A)-P(B) 0.07 仅B出现=P(B)×(1-P(A|A)) 0.0 A和B都不出现= 1-上述概率和 0.73
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表 4 成藏要素风险概率评价
Table 4. The table of risk assessment of accumulation factors
圈闭名称 次级圈闭 圈闭条件(个性因子) 储层条件(共性因子) 充注条件(共性因子) 保存条件(个性因子) 成功概率滩 1号断块 0.80 0.8 0.85 0.90 0.489 Ⅰ断块山 2号断块 0.80 0.8 0.85 0.85 0.462 3号断块 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.90 0.459 4号断块 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.80 0.408
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表 5 “部分决定时”各圈闭油气发现的可能情况及各自发生的概率
Table 5. Probable trap compositions and their probabilities sampled by "discovery partial dependency" principle
油气发现情况 次级圈闭名称 含油气概率 1号断块 2号断块 3号断块 4号断块 4个均有发现 √ √ √ √ 0.133 √ √ √ 0.094 3个有发现 √ √ √ 0.064 √ √ √ 0.063 √ √ √ 0.051 √ √ 0.049 √ √ 0.045 2个有发现 √ √ 0.040 √ √ 0.031 √ √ 0.023 √ √ 0.022 √ 0.023 仅1个有发现 √ 0.014 √ 0.019 √ 0.014 至少一层含油气的概率 0.685 注:表中√ 表示该圈闭有油气发现.
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