Hazard Assessment of Typical Debris Flow Induced by Rainfall Intensity
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摘要: “5·12”汶川地震后大量滑坡崩塌体出现，伴随极端降雨极易向泥石流转换，其规模及危害程度远高于预期.2010年8月13日都江堰龙池场镇突发暴雨，导致八一沟泥石流暴发，冲毁拦挡坝，掩埋道路、房屋及农田.为了探索降雨驱动泥石流的危险性，选取八一沟泥石流作为研究对象，通过分析不同降雨频率下的泥石流暴发强度及周期，采用FLO-2D数值模拟方法开展危险性评价.经验证模拟精度可达78%，结合降雨频率（5年、20年、50年、100年、200年）、流速和堆积深度构建八一沟泥石流危险性评价模型并绘制分布图.结果表明，八一沟泥石流危险范围内高危险区占62%，中危险性区占28%，低危险区占10%，该结论为危险范围内重点设施的监测预警提供科学依据.Abstract: A large number of landslides and rock falls were produced in the meizoseismal area by the "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake. If an extreme rainfall occurred, lots of materials could be transformed into debris flow, with larger size and higher damage degree than expected. On 13th October 2010, debris flow occurred in Bayi gully in Dujiangyan County under rainstorm condition, destroying dam, burying road, houses and farms, and seriously affecting the daily life of local people. In order to reduce these damage, Bayi gully was selected as the research object. Combined debris flow intensity under the different rainfall frequency and period of the outbreak, this paper aims to obtain Bayi gully hazard assessment by the FLO-2D numerical simulation. First, the Bayi gully numerical simulation accuracy can reach 77% according to field test. Then, according to the different frequency of rainfall (5 years, 20 years, 50 years, 100 years, 200 years) and the debris flow velocity and deposit depth, the hazard assessment model is established. Finally, the hazard map of Bayi gully is obtained. The results show that the high hazard area accounted for 62% in the Bayi gully, the medium hazard area accounted for 28%, and the low hazard area accounted for 10%. The hazard assessment of Bayi gully can provide a reliable basis for the post-disaster reconstruction and the key area prevention.
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Key words:
- Bayi gully mud flow /
- FLO-2D /
- rainfall frequency /
- hazard assessment /
- engineering geology /
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图 2 八一沟泥石流堆积扇对比
a. “5·12”地震后八一沟堆积扇全貌; b. “8·13”泥石流后八一沟堆积扇全貌
Fig. 2. Comparison chart of Bayi gully fan
图 4 八一沟③号集水点不同降雨强度下清水流量过程线
Fig. 4. The water flow process of ③ set point in Bayi Basin under different rainfall frequency
图 5 八一沟泥石流不同降雨强度下数值模拟结果及验证
Fig. 5. Numerical simulation results of Bayi debris flow under different rainfall frequency
表 1 八一沟泥石流③号集水点20年一遇参数选取
Table 1. The parameter of ③ set point in Bayi basin under 20 years rainfall frequency
参数 数值 流域面积F（km2） 2.08 沟道长度L（km） 2.5 径流系数ψ 0.918 洪峰流量QP（m3/s） 37.46 洪水流量WP（104m3） 5.62 体积浓度CV 0.6 径流深度H(cm) 27 汇流时间τ(h) 1.2 曼宁系数 0.05 屈服强度τy(MPA) 4 903 粘滞系数η 5 704 放大系数BF 2.5 
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表 2 八一沟泥石流数值模拟精度表
Table 2. Accuracy of numerical simulation in Bayi gully
泥石流名称 “8·13”泥石流堆积面积 实测值(103 m2) 模拟值(103 m2) 重叠区(103 m2) 精确程度 八一沟泥石流 136.48 112.28 109.09 0.78
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表 3 八一沟泥石流强度划分表
Table 3. Debris flow intensity partition in Bayi gully
八一沟泥石流强度 堆积深度(m) 关系式 堆积深度与流速乘积(m2/s) 高 H≥2.5 OR VH≥2.5 中 0.5≤H＜2.5 AND 0.5≤VH＜2.5 低 0.0≤H＜0.5 AND VH＜0.5
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