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    基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价:以三峡库区湖北段为例

    吴润泽 胡旭东 梅红波 贺金勇 杨建英

    吴润泽, 胡旭东, 梅红波, 贺金勇, 杨建英, 2021. 基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价:以三峡库区湖北段为例. 地球科学, 46(1): 321-330. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032
    引用本文: 吴润泽, 胡旭东, 梅红波, 贺金勇, 杨建英, 2021. 基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价:以三峡库区湖北段为例. 地球科学, 46(1): 321-330. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032
    Wu Runze, Hu Xudong, Mei Hongbo, He Jinyong, Yang Jianying, 2021. Spatial Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on Random Forest: A Case Study from Hubei Section in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Earth Science, 46(1): 321-330. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032
    Citation: Wu Runze, Hu Xudong, Mei Hongbo, He Jinyong, Yang Jianying, 2021. Spatial Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on Random Forest: A Case Study from Hubei Section in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Earth Science, 46(1): 321-330. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032

    基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价:以三峡库区湖北段为例

    doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032
    基金项目: 

    三峡库区后续地质灾害防治信息系统建设 0001212012AC50001

    详细信息
      作者简介:

      吴润泽(1979-), 男, 工程师, 主要从事地质灾害防治信息化研究.ORCID:0000-0003-1063-1431.E-mail:wurunze@163.com

      通讯作者:

      梅红波, ORCID:0000-0001-6377-3877.E-mail:hbmei@cug.edu.cn

    • 中图分类号: P642.2

    Spatial Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on Random Forest: A Case Study from Hubei Section in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

    • 摘要: 滑坡空间易发性分析有助于开展滑坡防灾减灾工作,训练有效的滑坡预测模型在其中扮演重要角色.以三峡库区湖北段为研究区,选取高程、坡度、斜坡结构、土地利用类型、岩土体类型、断裂距离、路网距离、河网距离、以及归一化植被指数这9个影响因子建立滑坡空间数据库,采用集成学习中的随机森林算法进行滑坡易发性评价.结果显示,随机森林抽样训练的方式有利于确定较优的训练参数,保证随机森林在不过拟合的情况下取得满意的拟合能力和泛化能力.随机森林绘制的滑坡易发性分级图显示出合理的空间分布,其中73.35%的滑坡分布在较高和极高级别区域.而巴东县北部、秭归县中部以及夷陵区南部等区域显示出较高的易发性级别.性能评估及易发性统计结果均表明随机森林是一种出色的算法,在滑坡空间预测领域具有较好的适用性.

       

    • 图  1  研究区地理位置以及滑坡分布

      Fig.  1.  Locations of study area and landslides

      图  2  随机森林OOB误差曲线图

      Fig.  2.  OOB error curves of random forest

      a. mtry=2;b. mtry=3;c. mtry=4;d. mtry=5

      图  3  随机森林ROC曲线

      Fig.  3.  The ROC curve of random fores

      图  4  研究区滑坡易发性评价图

      Fig.  4.  Landslide susceptibility maps in the study area

      表  1  评价因子汇总表

      Table  1.   The summary of conditioning factors

      高程(m) 坡度(°) 斜坡结构
      类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR
      ≤200 7.44 10.22 1.37 ≤5 6.22 2.47 0.40 水平坡 0.40 0.52 1.30
      200~400 9.21 30.96 3.36 5~10 11.05 6.49 0.59 顺向坡 18.33 18.50 1.01
      400~600 11.84 20.05 1.69 10~15 15.21 14.59 0.96 顺斜向坡 17.83 18.27 1.02
      600~800 13.75 14.13 1.03 15~20 17.34 22.11 1.28 横向坡 32.79 33.20 1.01
      800~1000 15.28 11.72 0.77 20~25 16.15 23.09 1.43 逆斜向坡 15.56 14.47 0.93
      1 000~1 200 15.60 7.01 0.45 25~30 12.69 16.94 1.34 逆向坡 15.09 15.05 1.00
      1 200~1 400 13.37 3.73 0.28 30~35 9.04 8.50 0.94
      > 1 400 13.51 2.18 0.16 35~40 5.88 3.10 0.53
      > 40 6.43 2.70 0.42
      路网距离(m) NDVI 断裂距离(m)
      类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR
      ≤50 15.99 30.96 1.94 ≤-0.1 2.12 3.27 1.54 ≤1000 19.75 17.92 0.91
      50~100 12.52 21.65 1.73 -0.1~0 1.85 2.81 1.52 1 000~2 000 16.07 13.10 0.81
      100~200 17.96 22.63 1.26 0~0.1 4.53 6.66 1.47 2 000~3 000 12.68 10.45 0.82
      200~300 11.97 9.88 0.83 0.1~0.2 10.27 11.60 1.13 3 000~4 000 9.63 8.62 0.89
      300~400 8.36 5.05 0.60 0.2~0.3 19.00 17.69 0.93 4 000~5 000 7.74 6.72 0.87
      400~500 6.11 3.22 0.53 0.3~0.4 27.02 23.95 0.89 5 000~6 000 6.59 8.27 1.26
      500~600 4.66 1.84 0.39 0.4~0.5 25.24 23.43 0.93 6 000~7 000 5.71 9.25 1.62
      600~700 3.60 1.03 0.29 > 0.5 9.96 10.57 1.06 7 000~8 000 4.85 5.51 1.14
      700~800 2.91 1.21 0.41 8 000~9 000 4.10 4.77 1.16
      > 800 15.91 2.53 0.16 > 9 000 12.88 15.39 1.19
      河网距离(m) 土地利用类型 岩土体类型
      类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR 类别 PA(%) PL(%) FR
      ≤500 17.34 21.83 1.26 农地 14.38 17.98 1.25 松散岩土类 12.09 24.99 2.07
      500~1 000 17.04 18.90 1.11 园地 6.68 22.80 3.41 碎屑岩类 21.63 38.94 1.80
      1 000~1 500 15.72 14.88 0.95 居民地 2.97 8.90 3.00 碳酸盐岩类 52.40 29.47 0.56
      1 500~2 000 13.33 9.13 0.69 林地 72.47 43.54 0.60 岩浆岩及变质岩类 13.88 6.61 0.48
      2 000~2 500 10.30 8.39 0.81 草地 0.56 0.52 0.93
      2 500~3 000 7.79 6.32 0.81 其它 2.95 6.26 2.12
      3 000~3 500 5.65 6.84 1.21
      > 3 500 12.84 13.73 1.07
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  2  随机森林性能统计表

      Table  2.   Performance of random forest

      性能度量指标 准确度 均方根误差 kappa系数
      训练集 0.791 0.390 0.582
      测试集 0.753 0.417 0.507
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  3  易发性评价灾害点分布统计表

      Table  3.   The summary of landslide locations in corresponding susceptibility classes

      易发性等级 滑坡数 滑坡百分比(%) 栅格数 栅格百分比(%) 滑坡密度
      极高 1 040 58.47 1 839 800 14.57 4.01
      较高 265 14.88 1 475 600 11.69 1.27
      中等 218 12.23 1 695 650 13.43 0.91
      较低 125 7.00 2 232 150 17.68 0.40
      极低 132 7.41 5 382 825 42.63 0.17
      下载: 导出CSV
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    • 收稿日期:  2020-02-21
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