Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Ice Sheet Melting in Greenland and Contributions to Sea Level Rise from 2003 to 2015
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摘要: 研究格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）质量变化异常速率可以帮助了解异常气候事件驱动海平面变化的机制.聚焦于2010~2012年GrIS质量变化的异常速率，及其对海平面指纹（SLF）和相对海平面（RSL）变化的贡献.通过联合2003~2015年GRACE月重力场数据和表面质量平衡（SMB）数据，采用mascon拟合法及网格尺度因子恢复泄漏，获得了6个流域的质量变化时空分布.基于海平面变化方程（SLE）并考虑负荷自吸引效应估算了SLF的空间分布.结果表明，2003~2015年间GrIS总质量变化速率分别为-288±7 Gt/a及-275±1 Gt/a；而在2010~2012年间速率相应地增加至-456±30 Gt/a及-464±38 Gt/a，该时期格陵兰西北海岸及东南沿海地区呈现出大量冰盖融化，其对海平面的贡献变化呈现倒“V”型（即先升后降），而全球平均海平面变化呈现出明显的正“V”型（即先降后升）.另外，GrIS融化对海平面的贡献约为31%，造成全球平均RSL增加了0.07 cm/a，而对斯堪的纳维亚及北欧地区的RSL贡献为-0.6 cm/a，GrIS融化造成的远海地区RSL上升速率比全球平均RSL速率高近30%.Abstract: Studing the abnormal mass change rate of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can help us understand the drivers of sea level change due to the abnormal climate events. Therefore, in this paper it focuses on the anomalous rate of GrIS mass change in 2010-2012 and its contributions to SLF and relative sea level (RSL) changes. By combining the 2003-2015 GRACE monthly gravity field data and surface mass balance (SMB) data, the spatio-temporal distributions of the mass change of the six extended sub-basins are estimated based on the mascon fitting and the grid scale factors. Afterwards, it obtains the spatial distribution of the SLF based on the sea level equation (SLE) and considering the self-attraction and loading effect. The results indicate that during 2003-2015, the total mass change rates of GrIS were -288±7 Gt/a and -275±1 Gt/a as derived from scaled GRACE and SMB results respectively; and the trend increased to -456±30 Gt/a and -464±38 Gt/a correspondingly during 2010-2012, when the northwest coast and the southeast coast showed a large number of melting. And the contributions of GrIS to sea level showed an inverted "V" type (i.e., first rise and then fall), while the global mean sea level change showed a distinct positive "V" type (i.e., first drop and then rise). Between 2003 and 2015, GrIS contributed approximately 31% of total terrestrial water reserves (converted to sea level rise), and a global average RSL increased by 0.07 cm/a, while the contribution to the RSL of Scandinavia and the Nordic region was -0.6 cm/a. In addition, the far-field RSL rising rate due to the melting of GrIS is nearly 30% higher than the global average. Meanwhile, in this paper it proves that the far-filed peak increase is less dependent on the accurate pattern of the self-attraction and loading.
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Key words:
- GRACE /
- SMB /
- Greenland ice sheet /
- anomaly melting /
- sea level fingerprints /
- marine hydrology
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图 1 格陵兰岛流域
流域划分据Rignot et al. (2011)；NO.北部，NE.东北部，SE.东南部，SW.西南部，CW.中西部，NW.西北部
Fig. 1. Greenland drainage basins
图 2 1960~2011年的累积SMB均方根误差
Fig. 2. Root mean square errors of accumulated SMB values during 1960 to 2011
图 3 GrIS流域的mascons（a）和扩展的mascons的目标源区域（b）
每个颜色区域代表一个mascon
Fig. 3. Mascons for the GrIS drainage basins (a) and the extended mask of six mascons (b)
图 4 实际和扩展mascon拟合GRACE月系数得到的整个GrIS的质量变化时间序列
Fig. 4. Time series for the entire GrIS from the exact and extended mascons to fit monthly GRACE coefficients
图 5 GRACE计算的GrIS冰盖质量平衡线性趋势
a.2003~2009年；b.2010~2012年；c.2013~2015年；d.2003~2015年
Fig. 5. GRACE-derived linear trends of GrIS ice mass balance
图 6 RACMO2.3累积SMB（mmWE/a）趋势
Fig. 6. The trend of accumulated SMB (mmWE/a) obtained from the RACMO2.3
图 7 GrIS冰质量变化
图a~d分别为GrIS实际mascon、北部、东北部和东南部扩展mascon（经尺度因子恢复）；图e~h为GrIS、西南部、中西部和西北部的扩展mascon拟合结果.红线为2003年1月到2015年12月GRACE时间序列，蓝线为2003年1月到2015年12月累积SMB异常的时间序列.浅蓝色条带区域代表2010年1月到2012年12月的时间跨度
Fig. 7. Ice mass change for GrIS
图 8 2003年1月至2015年12月期间由GrIS质量变化引起的海平面指纹（SLF）趋势（a）和地球弹性响应对SLF的贡献（b）
蓝色等值线为平均RSL或重静态（barystatic）海平面当量
Fig. 8. Trends in the sea level fingerprint (SLF) due to mass change of GrIS (a) and contributions from the Earth's elastic response (b) from January 2003 to December 2015
图 9 所有流域的实际mask（a）和扩展mask（b）的区域核函数
Fig. 9. Sensitivity kernel for the truly mask (a) and the extended mask (b) of all drainage basins
图 10 基于不同mask与泄漏恢复方法的格陵兰东北部区域平均质量变化
Fig. 10. Regional average mass change in northeastern Greenland based on the optimal averaging kernel and data-driven approach
图 11 每个子流域（a）和整个GrIS地区（b）的GRACE去除SMB后的残差
Fig. 11. Residuals obtained from GRACE after removing SMB for each drainage basin (a) and the entire GrIS (b)
图 12 格陵兰岛MODIS数据中的平均近地表空气温度
Fig. 12. Average near-surface air temperatures from MODIS data in Greenland
图 13 由2003~2015年测高数据得到的全球平均海平面变化及其分量的贡献
以上均移除了季节性信号；绿色竖条表示GrIS对总质量变化的贡献率（GRACE数据有效时段内的GrIS与总质量变化的比率）
Fig. 13. Global mean sea level (GMSL), total freshwater input from land (without Greenland) and steric sea level changes, and GrIS contribution from altimetry during 2003-2015
表 1 6个子流域基于扩展mascon拟合法的尺度因子
Table 1. Scale factors of six basins derived with the extended mascon fitting approach
NO NE SE SW CW NW NO_extended 0.952 0.014 0.000 0.011 -0.005 0.062 NE_extended 0.126 1.063 0.059 -0.031 0.056 0.112 SE_extended -0.007 -0.021 0.954 0.190 0.071 -0.013 SW_extended 0.012 -0.003 0.071 0.960 -0.098 -0.012 CW_extended -0.042 0.036 0.151 0.136 1.045 0.050 NW_extended 0.181 0.049 -0.039 -0.033 -0.008 0.964 累积尺度因子 1.223 1.138 1.196 1.235 1.061 1.163 
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