Preliminary Analysis and Prediction of Strategic Replacement Area for Gas Hydrate Exploration in South China Sea
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摘要: 二十多年来，南海天然气水合物勘查评价均主要集中在南海北部大陆边缘陆坡深水区，且先后在珠江口盆地神狐、珠江口盆地东部海域调查区和琼东南盆地陵水-松南调查区取得了天然气水合物勘查试采的重大突破及进展，陆续发现了两个大规模的天然气水合物藏，初步评价预测南海天然气水合物资源规模达800亿吨油当量左右，取得了南海天然气水合物勘探的阶段性重大成果.然而，南海天然气水合物资源进一步深化和拓展勘探的有利领域在哪里？尤其是可持续滚动勘探的战略接替区及选区在何处？其与目前陆坡深水油气及水合物勘探紧密相邻的外陆坡-洋陆过渡带（OCT）乃至洋盆区是否具有天然气水合物形成的地质条件？根据海洋地质调查及初步的地质综合分析研究，认为外陆坡-洋陆过渡带乃至洋盆区具备天然气水合物成藏的基本地质条件，可作为南海未来天然气水合物勘查的战略接替区和可持续滚动勘探的战略选区及资源远景区.针对这些影响和决定将来天然气水合物勘探决策部署及走向等关键问题进行初步分析与探讨，抛砖引玉希望能够对未来南海天然气水合物资源勘查评价及战略接替区之选择有所裨益！Abstract: The natural gas hydrate exploration and evaluation of South China Sea are mainly concentrated in continental margin slope deep water area of the northern South China Sea in the last 20 years. Major breakthroughs in the exploration and production of natural gas hydrate have been made in Shenhu area, Dongsha area and Lingshui-Songnan area of Qiongdongnan basin, where three billions of cubic meters of reserves of natural gas hydrate reservoir were found. A preliminary evaluation prediction about the south China sea natural gas hydrate resources is scale of 80 billion tons of oil equivalent, which has made major achievements in the natural gas hydrate exploration stage of South China Sea. However, where are the gas hydrate resources beneficial areas to further deepen and expand exploration in the South China Sea? In particular, where are the strategic replacement areas for sustainable rolling exploration? Is there any geological condition for gas hydrate formation in the continental slope-ocean continent transition (OCT) zone or even ocean basin area which is closely adjacent to the exploration of oil, gas and hydrate in deep water of continental slope at present? In this paper it intends to make a preliminary analysis and discussion on the key issues affecting and determining the future deployment and trend of gas hydrate exploration. It is hoped that it can be of some benefit to the exploration and evaluation of gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea and the selection of strategic replacement areas.
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图 1 南海沉积物中酸解烃样品采样位置、烃类异常显示区及成因类型分布（据祝有海等，2008）
Fig. 1. Location of sediment sampling from the South China Sea and higher methane concentratin areas with their origin types (modified by Zhu et al., 2008)
图 2 南海南北陆缘及西南次海盆大剖面深部地壳结构构成及展布特征（引自Pichot et al.，2014修改）
Fig. 2. Geological characteristics of the crustal structure in the SW conjugate margin of South China Sea (modified by Pichot et al., 2014)
图 3 南海北部大陆边缘陆架浅水断陷盆地与深水拆离盆地构造特征及展布规模对比（引自庞雄等，2018修改）
Fig. 3. Comparison of tectonic characteristics and distribution of shallow water rifted basins and deep water detachment basins in the northern continental margin of the South China Sea (modified by Pang et al., 2018)
图 4 南海中央次海盆北部ODP184航次多站位附近BSR分布特征（引自王建桥等，2005b修改）
Fig. 4. Location of ODP Leg 184 with respect to the regional bottom simulating reflector (BSR) on the north of the Central Subbasin in the South China Sea (modified by Wang et al., 2005b)
图 5 南海北部琼东南盆地南部陆坡深水探井有机质热演化（Ro）特征及成烃门槛(修改引自中国海洋石油集团有限公司资料)
Fig. 5. Organic matter thermal evolution (Ro) characteristics and hydrocarbon generation threshold of deepwater exploration wells in southern continental slope of Qiongdongnan basin, northern South China Sea (modified by the data from China National Offshore Oil Corporation)
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