Quantitative Susceptibility Assessment of Breach of Moraine-Dammed Lakes
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摘要: 世界范围内的冰碛湖溃决往往造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡.通过分析不含死冰的冰碛坝溃决机理和相关影响因素，采用控制变量法，以喜马拉雅山区21个溃决冰碛湖及其周围未溃决冰碛湖为研究对象，采用6个无量纲影响因子可以合理评估喜马拉雅山区和加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区以及美国西北部地区的冰湖溃决易发性，但喜马拉雅山区不同级别判别阈值较加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区偏大.危险冰体坡度因子、危险冰体温度因子、冰川坡向因子、危险冰体与冰碛湖体积因子、危险冰体与冰湖的运动因子、冰碛坝坡度因子是影响不含死冰冰碛湖溃决的主要因子，由这些影响因子构成的冰碛湖溃决易发性定量评价方法，可以用于其他地区的冰碛湖溃决易发性评价.Abstract: Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have caused tens of millions of dollars of damage to infrastructure and have killed thousands of people worldwide. Based on the formation mechanism of GLOF of moraine-dammed lakes without ice core, 21 GLOFs were selected for the analysis of triggering factors in the Himalayan region. A statistical method was used via the Variable-Controlling Approach (VCA). Six dimensionless impact factors can be used to reasonably assess the GLOFs susceptibility in the Himalayan mountains, southwestern part of Canadian Columbia and northwestern part of the United States, but the threshold values in the Himalayan mountains are larger than those in southwestern part of Canadian Columbia. The dangerous glacier slope factor, the dangerous glacier temperature factor, the glacier aspect factor, the dangerous glacier volume and lake volume factor, the dangerous glacier and lake kinetic factor, and the downstream slope of the moraine-dam factor are major factors for the breaching of moraine-dammed lake and GLOF. The assessment model with these factors may thus be used to assess the hazard of GLOFs occurrence in other areas.
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Key words:
- quantitative study /
- moraine-dammed lake /
- breach /
- hazard assessment /
- geotechnical engineering
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图 3 与冰碛湖溃决有关的冰川与冰湖的变量
数字表示：①冰川类型；②冰川面积；③冰川坡向；④冰湖体积；⑤危险冰体面积；⑥危险冰体质心至冰湖的高差；⑦危险冰体至冰湖的水平运动距离；⑧冰碛堤背水坡坡度；⑨危险冰体坡度；⑩危险冰体温度；⑪危险冰体高程
Fig. 3. The factors related drained moraine-dammed
图 4 北半球冰川坡向的平面投影角
Fig. 4. The planar projection of aspect of the glacier in the northern Hemisphere
图 5 冰川坡向因子X与体积因子G关系图
a.子区域1~3；b.子区域4~6；c.子区域7~9；d.子区域10~14
Fig. 5. The relationship between the glacier aspect factor X and the volume factor G
图 6 因子P1与运动因子R关系图
a.子区域1~3；b.子区域4~6；c.子区域7~9；d.子区域10~13
Fig. 6. The relationship between the factor P1 and the kinetic factor R
图 7 因子P2与冰碛堤背水坡坡度因子D关系图
a.子区域1~3；b.子区域4~6；c.子区域7~9；d.子区域10~13
Fig. 7. The relationship between the factor P2 and the downstream slope of the moraine-dam factor D
图 8 因子P3与危险冰体因子S关系图
a.子区域1~3；b.子区域4~6；c.子区域7~9；d.子区域10~13
Fig. 8. The relationship between the factor P3 and the dangerous glacier slope factor S
图 9 因子P4临界值与温度因子T关系
Fig. 9. The relationship between the critical value of factor P4 and the temperature factor T
图 11 加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚西南地区及美国西北部地区的溃决和未溃决冰碛湖分布
Fig. 11. The distribution of moraine lakes in southwestern British Columbia, Canada and the Northwest United States
图 13 研究区与验证区温度年际变化对比
Fig. 13. The comparison of the interannual variation of temperature in the study area and in the verification area
表 1 喜马拉雅山区各子区域溃决与未溃决冰碛湖的评价因子
Table 1. The factors of sub-areas in the Himalayan region with or without GLOFs
名称 子区域 X S G R D T 溃决 参考文献 穷比吓玛错 1 0.93 0.51 0.68 0.20 0.39 -7.42 是 McKillop and Clague(2007b) 1-1 1 0.42 0.47 0.17 0.39 0.46 -6.19 否 1-2 1 0.86 0.47 0.08 0.51 0.35 -6.34 否 1-3 1 0.71 0.47 0.39 0.36 0.44 -6.73 否 1-4 1 0.07 0.50 -0.67 0.26 0.35 -8.84 否 鲁惹错 2 0.38 0.50 0.99 0.20 0.40 -9.59 是 吕儒仁等(1999) 得嘎错 2 0.33 0.48 1.52 0.20 0.43 -8.78 是 姚晓军等(2014) Upper Jiejiu Tsho 2 0.89 0.48 1.13 0.38 0.45 -8.18 是 刘美(2020) Upper Shegong Tsho 2 0.79 0.47 0.26 0.50 0.44 -8.41 是 刘美(2020) Tarikha Lake 2 0.99 0.47 0.54 0.17 0.41 -7.90 是 Nie et al.(2018) 2-1 2 0.05 0.48 0.81 0.30 0.24 -9.66 否 2-2 2 0.08 0.22 1.57 0.17 0.42 -8.38 否 2-3 2 0.86 0.49 -0.02 0.26 0.21 -8.45 否 2-4 2 0.24 0.48 0.40 0.24 0.41 -7.81 否 2-5 2 0.87 0.46 0.45 0.20 0.22 -7.79 否 2-6 2 0.02 0.47 0.18 0.30 0.33 -9.17 否 2-7 2 0.51 0.25 0.53 0.24 0.39 -8.85 否 2-8 2 0.26 0.37 0.95 0.18 0.35 -9.11 否 隆达错 3 0.51 0.47 0.55 0.22 0.47 -5.31 是 徐道明和冯清华(1989) 扎那泊 3 0.73 0.51 1.40 0.22 0.48 -5.99 是 姚晓军等(2014) 扎隆嘎布 3 0.60 0.50 0.02 0.20 0.37 -6.16 是 刘建康等(2019) 3-1 3 0.39 0.49 0.67 0.27 0.43 -6.83 否 3-2 3 0.39 0.59 0.00 0.26 0.69 -6.49 否 3-3 3 0.28 0.57 -0.36 0.25 0.40 -5.49 否 3-4 3 0.16 0.56 -0.13 0.31 0.48 -6.27 否 3-5 3 0.60 0.55 1.17 0.33 0.44 -5.92 否 吉莱错(吉来普错) 4 0.64 0.49 0.04 0.18 0.37 -5.13 是 刘建康等(2019) 4-1 4 0.37 0.49 -0.55 0.22 0.37 -5.41 否 4-2 4 0.01 0.51 0.77 0.26 0.31 -6.51 否 Nagma Pokhari 5 1.00 0.48 0.18 0.40 0.46 -4.75 是 Nie et al.(2018) 5-1 5 0.29 0.51 0.92 0.40 0.54 -4.99 否 5-2 5 1.00 0.44 0.37 0.36 0.59 -4.61 否 5-3 5 0.97 0.30 1.25 0.31 0.36 -4.27 否 5-4 5 0.92 0.47 -0.18 0.32 0.49 -5.18 否 Dig Tsho 6 0.67 0.52 0.34 0.52 0.43 -2.40 是 Gurung et al.(2017) 6-1 6 0.58 0.48 1.21 0.33 0.37 -3.57 否 6-2 6 0.43 0.54 -0.86 0.30 0.14 -3.66 否 6-3 6 0.29 0.60 -0.95 0.21 0.53 -4.22 否 6-4 6 0.55 0.49 0.78 0.39 0.28 -4.05 否 Upper Langbu Tsho 7 0.79 0.48 1.19 0.31 0.62 -4.31 是 Nie et al.(2018) 7-1 7 0.26 0.36 -0.44 0.22 0.46 -4.96 否 7-2 7 0.72 0.42 1.08 0.27 0.38 -5.17 否 7-3 7 0.40 0.48 0.53 0.19 0.42 -3.55 否 7-4 7 0.34 0.51 -0.28 0.28 0.42 -4.63 否 错嘎 8 0.93 0.48 0.00 0.28 0.37 -6.55 是 姚晓军等(2014) 8-1 8 0.03 0.50 -0.12 0.38 0.23 -6.46 否 8-2 8 0.56 0.52 -0.15 0.20 0.47 -6.45 否 8-3 8 0.94 0.49 -0.11 0.40 0.35 -5.15 否 光谢错 9 0.34 0.51 0.94 0.24 0.44 -6.68 是 刘建康等(2019) 9-1 9 0.17 0.49 1.12 0.24 0.53 -5.39 否 9-2 9 0.99 0.34 0.18 0.47 0.27 -5.52 否 Tam Pokhari 10 0.97 0.52 -0.41 0.56 0.50 -5.35 是 Nie et al.(2018) 10-1 10 0.34 0.28 -0.03 0.31 0.52 -4.33 否 10-2 10 0.72 0.56 0.47 0.31 0.53 -4.43 否 10-3 10 0.34 0.50 0.13 0.33 0.45 -5.91 否 10-4 10 0.95 0.48 -0.34 0.21 0.33 -6.73 否 龙纠错 11 0.55 0.57 -0.19 0.37 0.44 -6.92 是 姚晓军等(2014) Simdong Goi Tsho 11 0.84 0.51 1.30 0.28 0.40 -6.72 是 Nie et al.(2018) 11-1 11 0.24 0.47 0.61 0.22 0.42 -6.88 否 11-2 11 0.59 0.49 1.07 0.30 0.32 -8.16 否 11-3 11 0.59 0.48 0.87 0.32 0.55 -7.28 否 11-4 11 0.19 0.58 0.42 0.19 0.50 -7.35 否 嘉龙错 12 0.74 0.55 0.46 0.54 0.53 -3.34 是 陈晓清等(2006) 12-1 12 0.22 0.47 0.65 0.45 0.42 -4.42 否 12-2 12 0.03 0.48 0.46 0.32 0.21 -2.53 否 Unnamed 6th 13 0.92 0.51 1.18 0.49 0.44 -1.98 是 刘美(2020) 13-1 13 0.19 0.49 1.18 0.24 0.41 -1.49 否 Upper ChokhamTsho 14 0.85 0.48 0.60 0.59 0.36 -5.36 是 Nie et al.(2018) 14-1 14 0.61 0.47 0.34 0.29 0.49 -5.79 否 14-2 14 0.55 0.53 -0.19 0.30 0.50 -6.82 否 14-3 14 0.15 0.53 0.51 0.40 0.33 -5.79 否 注：表中的因子X、S、G、R、D、T等分别表示坡向因子、危险冰体坡度因子、危险冰体与冰湖体积因子、运动因子、背水坡坡度因子、温度因子，详细定义见文章第2部分. 
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表 2 与冰碛湖溃决的相关参数
Table 2. The factors related to GLOFs
参数 本文采用 参数 本文采用 参数 本文采用 流域集水面积 否 冰湖与危险冰体高差 是 冰碛坝溢流口宽度 否 冰川面积 是 危险冰体与冰湖的运动参数 是 冰碛坝溢流口长度 否 冰川坡向 是 危险冰体体积与冰湖体积比 是 冰碛坝背水坡坡度 是 危险冰体面积 否 冰湖面积 否 冰碛坝岩性 否 危险冰体体积 是 冰湖体积 是 死冰 否 危险冰体坡度 是 冰碛坝高宽比 否 管涌 否 危险冰体裂缝 否 冰碛坝固结程度 否 温度 是 冰川裂缝宽度 否 冰湖湖面与冰碛坝顶距离 否 地震 否 冰湖与危险冰体距离 是 冰湖湖面与冰碛坝顶距离和冰碛坝高之比 否 滑坡 否
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