Influence of Land Subsidence on Minable Groundwater Resources
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摘要: 为研究地面沉降对地下水可采资源量的影响，以华北地区沧州市为例，基于Biot固结理论，建立了地下水开采与地面沉降三维变参全耦合黏弹塑性数值模型.分别预测了2019-2030年按现状开采地下水，2031-2040年禁采（方案一）；2019-2030年规划开采，2031-2040年禁采（方案二）；和2019-2040年地下水持续禁采（方案三）三方案的地面沉降量和各个方案在2041-2050年的地下水可采资源量.结果表明，2041-2050年，方案一、方案二和方案三的地下水可采资源量分别为1.29×108 m3/a、1.35× 108 m3/a和1.43×108 m3/a.方案二比方案一的累计地面沉降减少84.4 mm，地下水可采资源量多6×106 m3/a；相较于方案一，方案三发生了88 mm的地面回弹，地下水可采资源量多1.4×107 m3/a.说明了地面沉降严重的情况下，地下水可采资源量相对较少.Abstract: In order to study the impact of land subsidence on minable groundwater resources, taking Cangzhou City in North China as an example, based on Biot consolidation theory, a three-dimensional variable-parameter fully coupled viscoelastic-plastic numerical model of groundwater exploitation and land subsidence is established. Regarding groundwater mining from 2019 to 2030 based on current conditions and a ban on mining from 2031 to 2040 (scheme 1), compression mining from 2019 to 2030 and a ban on mining from 2031 to 2040 (scheme 2), and continuous ban on groundwater mining from 2019 to 2040 (scheme 3), the land subsidence of each scheme is predicted, and the minable groundwater resources of each scheme from 2041 to 2050 are reasonably evaluated. Results show: from 2041 to 2050, the minable groundwater resources of scheme 1, scheme 2 and scheme 3 are 1.29×108 m3/a, 1.35×108 m3/a and 1.43×108 m3/a, respectively. Compared with scheme 1, the maximum cumulative land subsidence of scheme 2 is reduced by 84.4 mm, and its minable groundwater resources increase by 6×106 m3/a. Compared with scheme 1, scheme 3 achieves a ground rebound of 88 mm, and its minable groundwater resources increase by 1.4×107 m3/a. These fully explain that the amount of recoverable groundwater resources is relatively small under the condition of severe land subsidence.
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图 2 AA’剖面线第四系水文地质剖面图
Fig. 2. Quaternary hydrogeological section of the AA' section line
图 5 吴1（a）、青11-3（b）观测井水位拟合图
Fig. 5. Water level fitting curves in observation Well Wu 1 (a) and Well Qing 11-3 (b)
图 6 东光县（a）、肃宁县（b）地面沉降监测点拟合图
Fig. 6. Fitting diagrams of land subsidence monitoring points in Dongguang County (a) and Suning County (b)
图 7 2012-2018年累计地面沉降量（mm）校准结果
Fig. 7. Calibration results of cumulative land subsidence (mm) from 2012 to 2018
图 9 方案一2040年第Ⅲ含水层组预测流场图
Fig. 9. Predicted flow field of the Ⅲ aquifer in 2040 for scheme 1
图 10 方案一2019-2040年累计地面沉降量预测等值线图
Fig. 10. Map of land subsidence forecast for 2019-2040 for scheme 1
图 11 方案一2050年第Ⅲ含水层组预测流场图
Fig. 11. Predicted flow field of the Ⅲ aquifer in 2050 for scheme 1
图 12 方案二2040年第Ⅲ含水层组预测流场图
Fig. 12. Predicted flow field of the Ⅲ aquifer in 2040 for scheme 2
图 13 方案二2019-2040年累计地面沉降量等值线图
Fig. 13. Map of land subsidence forecast for 2019-2040 for scheme 2
图 14 方案三2040年12月第Ⅲ含水层组预测流场图
Fig. 14. Predicted flow field of the Ⅲ aquifer in 2040 for scheme 3
图 15 方案三2019-2040年累计地面沉降量等值线图
Fig. 15. Map of land subsidence forecast for 2019‒2040 for scheme 3
图 16 沧州市区主要水文地质参数和水位动态变化曲线
Fig. 16. Main hydrogeologic parameters and water level dynamic curve in Cangzhou
表 1 第Ⅲ含水层组各参数分区的参数汇总
Table 1. Parameters for each parameter zone of the Ⅲ aquifer
分区 主轴渗透系数（m/D） 变形模量（MPa） 泊松比 黏聚力（kPa） 摩擦角（°） 重度（kN/m3） Kx Ky Kz E ν c φ γ 21 10 10 0.025 0 23.85 0.45 6.3 23 20.73 22 10 10 0.001 5 23.83 0.45 6.0 20 20.63 23 8.4 8.4 0.001 8 24.65 0.44 6.5 20 20.69 24 8.5 8.5 0.095 0 23.63 0.45 7.0 19 20.76 25 8.5 8.5 0.003 0 23.55 0.46 7.5 20 20.93 26 7.5 7.5 0.000 4 23.47 0.46 6.0 19 20.75 27 9.5 9.5 0.000 1 24.45 0.46 6.5 21 20.69 28 5 5 0.004 8 23.5 0.46 6.0 17 20.70 29 5 5 0.010 9 23.52 0.46 6.0 19 20.75 30 6 6 0.001 4 23.52 0.46 6.2 19 20.85 31 3 3 0.001 5 25.15 0.47 6.0 18 20.75 32 5 5 0.000 3 23.23 0.47 6.0 19 21.13 33 4 4 0.000 7 24.03 0.47 7.0 17 21.03 34 8 8 0.007 0 23.35 0.47 6.5 19 21.23 
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表 2 2019-2040年累计沉降量及2041-2050年地下水可采资源量
Table 2. Summary of subsidence from 2019 to 2040 and groundwater resources from 2041 to 2050
县市 开采井个数 方案一 方案二 方案三 沉降量(mm) 可采资源量(104m3/a) 沉降量(mm) 可采资源量(104m3/a) 沉降量(mm) 可采资源量(104m3/a) 肃宁县 6 716 559.38 875.07 475.00 915.76 ‒88.15 972.46 泊头市 7 474 382.04 1 212.78 321.81 1 269.17 ‒61.06 1 347.76 沧县 7 390 164.93 1 099.12 139.17 1 150.22 ‒27.89 1 221.45 东光县 6 767 536.43 561.81 473.05 587.93 ‒84.65 624.34 海兴县 2 516 187.86 88.87 156.06 93.00 ‒31.39 98.76 河间市 7 474 353.29 1 079.99 308.25 1 130.20 ‒56.67 1 200.18 孟村县 8 027 181.41 205.97 153.19 215.54 ‒30.41 228.89 南皮县 6 775 464.53 1 160.50 402.80 1 214.46 ‒73.66 1 289.66 青县 9 144 391.95 827.73 309.21 866.22 ‒62.58 919.86 任丘市 741 263.52 1 978.60 204.69 2 070.59 ‒42.95 2 198.80 吴桥县 9 254 395.34 595.08 344.08 622.75 ‒63.09 661.31 献县 7 390 358.11 1 606.88 313.65 1 681.59 ‒57.40 1 785.72 盐山县 352 203.89 684.25 172.26 716.06 ‒33.84 760.40 黄骅市 952 199.24 616.41 168.35 645.07 ‒33.13 685.01 总计 89 997 12 869.24 13 467.58 14 301.52
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