Evaluation of Deep Geothermal Resources Potential in the Songliao Basin Based on the Fuzzy Mathematics
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摘要: 松辽盆地具有高大地热流、高地温梯度特点，是我国地热资源有利远景区.前人对松辽盆地干热岩研究取得了系列认识，但部分地热评价中缺乏重要参数（如大地热流、地温梯度），评价数据以收集资料为主，造成预测的地热有利区存在争议.本文通过处理分析大量实测地球物理数据，获得了壳内高导层埋深、居里等温面埋深、莫霍面埋深和中生界基底岩性等分布特征，结合大地热流、地温梯度等信息，利用模糊数学法开展松辽盆地深层地热资源评价，结果表明：松辽盆地深层地热资源具有“中部优、东南部良好、西部和北部差”的分布格局；大庆‒松原和肇东‒哈尔滨是两大深层地热资源有利区，其干热岩总资源量为6.236×1022 J，折合为2.128×1012 tce（吨标准煤当量），指示了深层巨大的干热岩资源潜力.Abstract: With the high heat flow values and high geothermal gradient values, the Songliao basin is considered as a favorable geothermal resources potential area in China. Although some important developments have been made in previous studies on hot dry rocks in the Songliao basin, there is a lack of important parameters in some domains (such as terrestrial heat flow, geothermal gradient), and there are still controversies over the favorable areas of geothermal resources due to the colletion-based major evaluation data. In this paper, based on a large number of geophysical data, the buried depth of high conductivity layers in the crust, the depth of curie point isotherm, the Moho buried depth and the lithology distribution on Mesozoic base were obtained. Meanwhile, the collected data was integrated, including heat flow, geothermal gradient, earthquake magnitude and the distribution of surface hot springs and geothermal wells. Finally, using the method of fuzzy mathematics, the deep geothermal resources potential in the Songliao basin is evaluated. The main results are as follows: The distribution characteristics of deep geothermal resources in the Songliao basin are "excellent in the middle, good in the southeast, poor in the west and north"; Two favorable areas for deep geothermal resources are obtained, with one of Daqing-Songyuan area, and the other of Zhaodong-Harbin area; The total resources of hot dry rock in the two favorable areas are about 6.236×1022 J(equivalent to 2.128×1012 tce), which indicates that there is great resource potential of hot dry rock in the basin.
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Key words:
- Songliao basin /
- geothermal energy /
- hot dry rock /
- terrestrial heat flow /
- fuzzy mathematics
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图 3 松辽盆地及邻区大地热流分布
数据引自相关学者汪集旸等（1985）、汪集旸等（1986）、汪集旸和黄少鹏（1990）、吴乾蕃（1991）、张汝惠等（1991）、金旭等（1995）、王永新等（2003）、崔军平（2004）、肖伟等（2004）、姜光政等（2016）
Fig. 3. Distribution map of terrestrial heat flow in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 4 松辽盆地及邻区地温梯度分布
数据引自相关学者汪集旸等（1985，1986）、汪集旸和黄少鹏（1990）、吴乾蕃（1991）、张汝惠等（1991）、金旭等（1995）、王永新等（2003）、崔军平（2004）、肖伟等（2004）、姜光政等（2016）
Fig. 4. Distribution map of geothermal gradient in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 5 松辽盆地及邻区壳内高导层顶界埋深分布
黑色倒三角为本文MT处理解译得到数据，主要位于松辽盆地内与盆缘；红色倒三角收集数据引自相关学者：马杏垣等（1991）、史书林等（1991）、白登海等（1993）、卢造勋和夏怀宽（1993）、杨宝俊等（1996）、牛雪和卢造勋（1998）、刘国兴等（2006），主要分布在松辽盆地外围
Fig. 5. Buried depth distribution map at the top boundary of crustal high conductivity layer in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 6 松辽盆地及邻区居里等温面埋深分布
Fig. 6. Buried depth distribution map of curie point isotherm in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 7 松辽盆地及邻区莫霍面埋深分布
黑色倒三角为本文深反射地震处理解译获得数据，主要位于松辽盆地内；红色倒三角收集数据引自熊小松等（2011）、危自根和陈凌（2012），且主要分布在松辽盆地外围
Fig. 7. Buried depth distribution map of Moho in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 8 松辽盆地及邻区温泉与地热井分布
部分数据引自Wang et al.（2001），以及中国地质科学院水文地质环境研究所，2014，吉林省地热资源调查评价与区划成果报告
Fig. 8. Distribution map of hot springs and geothermal wells in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 9 松辽盆地及邻区中下地壳内纵向电导分布
Fig. 9. Longitudinal conductance distribution map between the middle and lower crust in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 10 松辽盆地中生代基底岩性分布
Fig. 10. Lithology distribution map on Mesozoic base in the Songliao basin
图 11 松辽盆地及邻区地震震级分布
数据来源中国地震台网和美国国家地震信息中心
Fig. 11. Earthquake magnitude distribution in the Songliao basin and its adjacent areas
图 12 松辽盆地深层地热定量评价得分与有利区分布
Fig. 12. Deep geothermal evaluation scores and favorable areas in the Songliao basin
表 1 深层地热能评价指标数据集
Table 1. The indicator data set for evaluating deep geothermal energy
评价指标数据集 C1 大地热流(mW/m2) C2 地温梯度(℃/km) C3 壳内高导层顶界埋深(km) C4 居里等温面埋深(km) C5 莫霍面埋深(km) C6 温泉/地热井显示 C7 埋深10~30 km地壳纵向电导分布(S) C8 中生代基底岩性分布 C9 地震震级大小(M) 
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表 2 指标权重判断矩阵
Table 2. Index weighted evaluation matrix
指标 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 C2 1/2 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 C3 1/3 1/2 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 C4 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 2 3 3 3 4 C5 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 2 3 3 3 C6 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 2 3 3 C7 1/4 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 2 3 C8 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 2 C9 1/5 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/2 1
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表 3 松辽盆地地热指标的评价等级
Table 3. List of evaluation levels assigned to indicators in the Songliao basin
指标 分级 R1
(优)R2
(良)R3
(中等)R4
(较差)R5
(差)C1 大地热流(mW/m2) 80 70 60 50 40 C2 地温梯度(℃/km) 45 40 35 30 25 C3 壳内高导层埋深(km) 10 13 16 19 22 C4 居里等温面埋深(km) 19.6 20 20.4 20.8 21.2 C5 莫霍面埋深(km) 30 31.5 33 34.5 36 C6 温泉/地热井显示(℃) ≥80 60~80 40~60 40~25 < 25 C7 埋深10~30 km地壳纵向电导分布(S) 104.5 103.5 102.5 101.5 100.5 C8 盆地基底岩性分布 碳酸盐岩 花岗闪长岩 花岗岩 砂岩类 板岩、片麻岩和其他变质岩 C9 地震震级大小(M) < 1.0 1.0~4.5 4.5~6.0 6.0~7.0 > 7.0
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表 4 松辽盆地典型隶属度矩阵值分布
Table 4. Typical membership matrix values in the Songliao basin
位置 隶属度矩阵G 地热指标特征 指标 分级 优 良 中等 较差 差 大庆南部 C1 1 0 0 0 0 高大地热流、高地温梯度；壳内高导层与居里面埋深浅；莫霍面埋深与温泉/地热井显示均为中等；无地震风险 C2 1 0 0 0 0 C3 1 0 0 0 0 C4 0.874 3 0.125 7 0 0 0 C5 0 0.040 5 0.959 5 0 0 C6 0 0 1 0 0 C7 1 0 0 0 0 C8 0 0 0 1 0 C9 1 0 0 0 0 长春 C1 0.900 0 0.100 0 0 0 0 高大地热流、中等地温梯度、壳内高导层埋藏深、居里面较浅，莫霍面埋藏浅，具有一定地震安全风险 C2 0 0.394 2 0.605 8 0 0 C3 0 0 0 0 1 C4 0.326 3 0.673 7 0 0 0 C5 1 0 0 0 0 C6 0 0 1 0 0 C7 0.311 7 0.688 3 0 0 0 C8 0 0 0 0 1 C9 0 0 1 0 0 五大连池 C1 0 0 0 0.298 9 0.701 1 低大地热流与低地温梯度，中等‒良好壳内高导层埋深和中等偏下的居里面埋深，较差地热井显示 C2 0 0 0 0.375 0 0.625 0 C3 0 0.500 3 0.499 7 0 0 C4 0 0 0.526 7 0.473 3 0 C5 0.026 9 0.973 1 0 0 0 C6 0 0 0 1 0 C7 0 0 1 0 0 C8 0 0 0 1 0 C9 1 0 0 0 0
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