Optimization of Parameters and Application of Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Analysis Model Based on Newmark Displacement Model: A Case Study in Ludian Earthquake Area
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摘要:
应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划，是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法.通过理论分析，结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况，对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析，将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中，进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型，更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用，在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中，优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性，在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中，鲁甸地区包谷垴—小河断裂、鲁甸—昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高—极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此，在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系，对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义.
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关键词:
- 地震滑坡 /
- 概率地震危险性 /
- Newmark位移模型 /
- 危险区预测 /
- 工程地质
Abstract:Applying probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation model for seismic landslide hazard zonation is an effective method to handle the uncertainty of seismic source and spatial and temporal uncertainty of seismic-induced landslide evaluation in potential seismic area. Combined with theoretical analysis and actual ground motion parameters of Ludian earthquake and landslide hazards, the uncertainty of earthquake parameters and the geotechnical strength parameters in the proposed Newmark model were optimized and verified. Specifically, the strength attenuation effect of slope rock mass, the topographic amplification effect of seismic acceleration, and the fault zone effect were integrated into the Newmark model to optimize the model parameters. The optimized model shows a better effect of the slope topography and fault zone on the development of earthquake-induced landslide. Meanwhile, the calculation results have a higher agreement with the actual seismic landslide distribution in Ludian earthquake area. In addition, the prediction results show that the probability of seismic landslide will greatly increase in the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault, the Ludian-Zhaotong fault, and the Niulanjiang River valley for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the dynamic response laws of earthquake parameters and geotechnical parameters in the Newmark model, which has great effect to improve the reliability of regional slope stability analysis.
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图 1 区域地震构造与动力学背景
a.区域活动断裂分布图；b.昭通-鲁甸断裂带及邻区地震构造图，①鲜水河断裂；②龙门山断裂；③安宁河断裂；④则木河断裂；⑤莲峰-昭通断裂；⑥小江断裂；⑦红河断裂；⑧实皆断裂；⑨大凉山断裂；⑩马边-盐津断裂；⑪莲峰断裂；⑫昭通-鲁甸断裂；⑬翻身村断裂；⑭者海-石门坎断裂；⑮汤朗-易门断裂；据常祖峰等（2014）；Wen et al.（2011）
Fig. 1. Regional seismological tectonic map and dynamic setting
图 2 研究区三维地形示意图
Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of the three-dimensional topography of the study area
图 3 研究区典型崩滑灾害特征
a.红石岩右岸滑坡；b.红石岩左岸滑坡；c.乐红崩塌；d.沙坝滑坡
Fig. 3. Typical geological hazards in the study area
图 6 断层长度与断层影响带宽度变化关系曲线(据雷光伟等, 2016)
Fig. 6. Relation curves between the length of fault and the width of fault-affected zone (modified from Lei et al., 2016）)
图 7 研究区断层分布及断层影响带宽度变化
Fig. 7. Distribution map of faults and changes in the width of the fault-affected zone in the study area
图 8 研究区斜坡临界加速度分布图
a.参数优化方法计算结果; b.传统方法计算结果
Fig. 8. Critical acceleration distribution of slopes in the study area
图 9 研究区50年超越概率10%地震滑坡危险性概率分布图
a.参数优化方法计算结果; b.传统方法计算结果
Fig. 9. Probability distribution of earthquake-induced landslide risks in study area for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
图 10 震中100 km范围内地震台站分布图(a)与鲁甸地震PGA等值线分布图(b)
Fig. 10. Distribution of seismic stations within 100 km of the epicenter (a) and PGA contour distribution of Ludian earthquake (b)
图 11 鲁甸地震滑坡Newmark位移分布图
a.参数优化方法计算结果; b.传统方法计算结果
Fig. 11. Newmark displacement distribution in Ludian area
图 12 鲁甸地震滑坡危险性概率分布与崩滑灾害分布
Fig. 12. Probability distribution of earthquake-induced landslide risks and actual seismic-induced landslides in Ludian area
图 13 研究区50年超越概率2%地震滑坡危险性概率分布图
Fig. 13. Probability distribution of earthquake-induced landslide risks in study area for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years
图 14 不同超越概率水平下滑坡失稳概率面积曲线图
Fig. 14. Area curves of probability distribution of earthquake-induced landslide at different exceedance probability levels
表 1 研究区模型计算岩石参数取值
Table 1. Rock parameters used in the study area
岩性 $ {\phi }^{\mathrm{\text{'}}}(°) $ $ {c}^{\mathrm{\text{'}}}\left(\mathrm{M}\mathrm{P}\mathrm{a}\right) $ $ \gamma (\mathrm{k}\mathrm{N}•{m}^{-3}) $ 白云岩 35.25 0.036 27.50 泥岩 30.00 0.020 27.00 砂黏土 20.25 0.015 20.00 砂岩 33.75 0.025 26.50 石灰岩 36.50 0.030 27.50 玄武岩 38.75 0.035 30.00 页岩 25.20 0.025 27.00 
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表 2 50年不同超越概率水平下峰值加速度PGA比值
Table 2. Bedrock PGA ratios at different exceeding probabilities over 50 years
不同超越概率水平下峰值加速度PGA之比 场地类别 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 多遇地震(63.5%/10%) 0.323 0.333 0.378 罕遇地震((2%~3%)/10%) 2.145 1.900 1.657
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表 3 建筑规范中规定的不同超越概率地震PGA比值
Table 3. The PGA ratios at different exceeding probabilities for seismic design of buildings
加速度分档 0.05 g 0.10 g 0.15 g 0.20 g 0.30 g 0.40 g 多遇地震(63.5%/10%) 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.35 0.37 0.35 罕遇地震((2%~3%)/10%) 2.50 2.20 2.07 2.00 1.70 1.55
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