Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution of Streamflow Trends over the Global Major River Basins
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摘要: 受水文站数量与空间分布的制约，目前径流变化研究集中于区域或流域尺度，基于实测数据且综合考虑多种因子影响的全球尺度径流变化趋势归因尚待开展.基于此，本文整合多套站点实测径流数据，并提取各站点对应集水区范围的气象和植被数据，构建了当前站点数量最多、空间分布最完整的全球气象水文数据集.采用Mann-Kendall等趋势分析方法，检测了全球4 469个水文站点径流变化趋势；基于随机森林方法，建立全球径流变化趋势归因框架，定量评估了降水、潜在蒸散发、植被叶面积指数、融雪4个驱动因子对全球主要流域径流变化的影响.结果表明，全球径流变化以减少趋势为主，径流显著减少（增加）趋势站点占比28.2%（9.7%）.植被变化主导了全球42.2%的水文站点径流变化趋势，高于降水（35.3%）、潜在蒸散发（12.5%）和融雪（10.0%）主导的站点.Abstract: Limited by the available gauging hydrological data, most studies concerning streamflow change are restricted to the regional scale. By combining two streamflow datasets and extracting their corresponding meteorological data, we obtained the most complete global hydrometeorological dataset. Furthermore, we applied the Mann-Kendall test to examine the streamflow change at 4 469 global stations. Lastly, based on the random forest method, we developed an attribution framework to quantify the contributions of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), leaf area index (LAI) and snowmelt to observe streamflow change. The results indicate that the global streamflow change is mainly showing a decreasing trend, with 28.2% (9.7%) of global stations showing significantly decreasing (increasing) trends. For 42.2% of global stations, streamflow changes are dominated by the LAI, while P, PET, and snowmelt dominate 35.3%, 12.5%, and 10.0%, respectively.
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Key words:
- streamflow change /
- quantitative attribution /
- vegetation /
- snowmelt /
- global scale /
- geographical distribution /
- hydrology
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图 1 水文站点及其对应流域空间分布
Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of global hydrological stations and catchments
图 2 1982‒2014年全球径流变化趋势空间分布
Fig. 2. Maps showing global streamflow change during 1982‒2014
图 3 各驱动因子对径流变化影响量之和与实测径流变化趋势对比
Fig. 3. Comparison of simulated (the sum of 4 driving factors' influence) and observed streamflow trend
图 4 各因子对径流变化贡献率空间分布
Fig. 4. Maps showing the contributions of driving factors to streamflow change
图 5 全球实测径流变化主导因子分布
Fig. 5. Maps showing the dominant factor controlling streamflow change
表 1 1982-2014年各大洲径流变化趋势汇总
Table 1. Slope of global streamflow change for each continent during 1982‒2014
各大洲 增加站点（%） 减少站点（%） 显著增加站点（%） 显著减少站点（%） 亚洲 31.9 68.1 15.3 29.2 欧洲 11.2 88.8 1.1 46.9 非洲 75.9 24.1 28.6 8.3 北美洲 56.1 43.9 16.1 10.1 南美洲 23.1 76.9 5.9 40.1 大洋洲 0 100 0 68.8 
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