Development Status and Feasibility Evaluation Index System of Continental Shale Oil Demonstration Area in China
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摘要: 页岩油示范区建设对引领和推动我国陆相页岩油规模效益开发、产业持续发展意义重大.基于现有国家级页岩油示范区发展现状与建设进展跟踪评述及其面临形势与挑战分析，创建了（拟建）示范区可行性评价方法、评价参数与指标体系.研究表明：我国已建陇东、吉木萨尔、古龙、济阳4个国家级页岩油示范区，取得2项重大战略突破与储量发现、5方面关键技术突破和集成创新，多项工程技术参数实现了阶梯式跨越提升、地质工程一体化应用与提质增效，形成了组织管理、生产施工、技术攻关、措施保障四方面机制模式与重要经验.示范区发育三种页岩油类型，个别成效低于审批规划目标，增储上产、规模效益开发潜力与压力并存.根据页岩油可行性评价重点内容、主要方法和指标体系构建原则，建立起由资源可行性、地质条件可行性、开发技术可行性、环保节能可行性、经济可行性、风险对策可行性6个大类一级指标、18类二级指标、126个三级指标组成的页岩油示范区可行性评价参数与指标体系框架.4个国家级页岩油示范区建设推进总体顺利、平稳发展，可行性评价指标体系在内容上注重资源与地质特性、开发技术与经济评价结合，在方法上突出参数类比法、经济评价法与综合分析法、排队比选法结合，在指标上加强了新时期“双碳”背景下环保节能降碳、风险与对策分析的可行性评价，可为我国页岩油示范区可行性评价和建设提供决策参考依据.Abstract: The construction of shale oil demonstration area is of great significance to leading and promoting the scale benefit development of continental shale oil and the sustainable development of the industry in China. Based on the development status and construction progress of the existing national shale oil demonstration area, as well as the analysis of the situation and challenges faced, the feasibility evaluation method, evaluation parameters and index system of the (proposed) demonstration area are established. China's Longdong, Jimusar, Gulong and Jiyang demonstration areas have made two major strategic breakthroughs and reserves discovery of shale oil, five key technological breakthroughs and integrated innovation. A number of engineering and technical parameters have achieved step-by-step leapfrog upgrading, geology-engineering integration application, quality improvement and efficiency increase, forming the mechanism mode and gaining important experience in four aspects: organization and management, production and construction, technical breakthrough and measure guarantee. There are three types of shale oil developed in the demonstration area, individual achievements are lower than the approval planning objectives, potential and pressure of increasing reserves and production as well as scale benefit development coexist. According to the key contents, main methods and parameter-index system construction principles of shale oil feasibility evaluation, six categories of primary indicators (including resource feasibility, geological condition feasibility, development technology feasibility, environmental protection and energy conservation feasibility, economic feasibility and risk countermeasure feasibility), 18 categories of secondary indicators, 126 three-level indicators are established, which constitutes the feasibility evaluation index system framework of shale oil demonstration. In general, the construction of three national shale oil demonstration areas has been smoothly promoted and developed steadily. The feasibility evaluation parameter-index system pays attention to the combination of resources and geological characteristics, development technology and economic evaluation in terms of content, highlights the combination of parameter analogy method, economic evaluation method and comprehensive analysis method and queuing comparison method in terms of methods, and strengthens the feasibility evaluation of environmental protection, energy conservation and carbon reduction, risk and countermeasure analysis under the background of "dual carbon" goals in the new era. It is expected to provide decision-making reference for the feasibility evaluation and construction of shale oil demonstration areas in China.
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图 1 陇东页岩油示范区发展阶段及历年产量分布
据《长庆油田公司2021年度油田开发工作报告》，中国石油长庆油田公司，2021
Fig. 1. Development stage and annual output of Longdong shale oil demonstration area
图 2 吉木萨尔页岩油示范区提速、提效、提质对比
据《新疆油田公司2021年度油气田开发工作报告》，中国石油新疆油田公司，2021
Fig. 2. Comparison of speed, efficiency and quality improvement in Jimusar shale oil demonstration area
图 3 古龙页岩油示范区2021年完钻水平井三开井段“一趟钻”指标情况
据《工程技术研究院2021年开发年会报告》，中国石油工程技术研究院，2021
Fig. 3. "One trip drilling" index of the third spud section of horizontal wells completed in Gulong shale oil demonstration area in 2021
图 4 页岩油（拟建）示范区可行性评价方法与技术流程图
Fig. 4. Feasibility evaluation method and technical flow chart of shale oil (proposed) demonstration area
表 1 不同类型陆相页岩油示范区特征及与北美典型海相页岩油对比
Table 1. Characteristics of different types of continental shale oil demonstration areas and comparison with typical marine shaleoil in North America
区块 Bakken页岩油 Eagle Ford页岩油 陇东页岩油 吉木萨尔页岩油 古龙页岩油 细分类型 源储分异型 源储分异型 源储分异型+ 少量纯页岩型 源储一体型 纯页岩型+源储分异型 沉积环境 浅海厌氧陆棚相 浅海厌氧陆棚相 陆相淡水湖盆 陆相咸化湖盆 陆相淡水湖盆 含油层 D3-C1，Bakken组 K3，Eagle Ford组 延长组长7段 芦草沟组芦一二段 青山口组青一段 储集岩性 含泥云质粉砂岩、极细砂岩、
页岩泥灰岩、黑色钙质页岩 粉砂岩‒细砂岩 泥质粉‒极细砂岩、砂屑云岩、云屑砂岩 层状/纹层状页岩、泥质/含泥粉砂岩 源储关系 源间 源内 源间 源内 源内、源下 深度（m） 2 100~3 300 1 200~4 300 1 000~2 800 2 340~4 500 1 800~2 500 单层厚度(平均值)（m） 15~35(30) 15~100(80) 20~60(33) 0.5~5.0(1.0) 0.15~5(4) 累计厚度（m） 20~90 4~124 150~300 90~260 平均TOC（%） 5~12.0 4~7 5.8~13.8 0.2~19.9 1.4~4.5，主体 > 2.0 裂缝发育程度 很发育 很发育 0.2~0.3 欠发育 0.012~0.046 孔隙度(平均值)（%） 10~15(7.0) 5~14(11.0) 5.8~14.6(8.3~9.2) 11.2~13.8(12.5) 4~14(6.2~9.8) 渗透率(平均值)（mD） 0.01~0.1(0.04) 0.001~0.002 0.03~0.25(0.07~0.09) 0.002~0.6(0.07) 0.2~2，水平0.2~6.94 Ro（%） 0.5~1.3 0.7~1.4 0.85~1.15 0.6~1.2 1.0~1.7 含油饱和度（%） 68~75 55~88 73~76 65~95 48~73.2 气油比(m3/m3) 89~249.2 240 > 100 17.0，生产 < 15 25~100，与Ro正比增减，生产60~500 地层压力系数 1.6~1.8 1.4~1.7 0.64~0.87 1.26~1.68 1.2~1.58 地层原油粘度（mPa·s） 0.45 / 0.75 50.27~123.20（50 ℃） < 0.80 流度（mD/mPa·s） 0.67 / 0.40 0.000 08~0.000 20 0.10~0.27 估算最终可采储量EUR（104 t） 5.0~7.8 3.9~4.3 2.3~2.6 3.3~4.8 1.7 资源丰度（104 t/km2） 68.0 151.0 38.1~45.9 35.0~76.9 12.1 
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表 2 页岩油示范区可行性评价参数与指标体系
Table 2. Summary of feasibility evaluation index system of shale oil demonstration area
准则性参数/一级指标 要素性参数/二级指标 指标性参数/三级指标 评价指标内涵 资源可行性 资源状况 资源量、三级（探明/控制/预测）储量 资源规模大小与潜力 资源探明率、先导试验效果、储量动用率 探明潜力与落实程度 资源丰度、探明面积、估算最终可采储量EUR、储量丰度 资源品质与富集程度 地面状况 地形地貌、管线、示范区与管线距离、水源、示范区与水源距离 地面开采条件与建设难易度 地质条件可行性 源岩品质 岩性、有效厚度、面积、有机质类型、有机碳含量TOC、成熟度Ro、游离烃S1（可动烃） 岩性（岩电特性）、烃源性（生烃特性）、可动性及分布 储层品质 岩性、有效厚度及连续性、面积、（有效）孔隙度、渗透率、储地比、孔隙结构+裂缝 储集性（储油特性、储层连续性、孔隙连通性）及分布 工程力学品质 脆性矿物含量、脆性指数、泊松比、杨氏模量、水平两项主应力差、孔隙/地层压力系数 可压性（脆性、成缝性）及分布 含油品质 含油饱和度、地面原油密度、气油比、地层原油黏度、流度、可动油量、可动流体饱和度 含油性、流动性及分布 开发技术可行性 综合评价技术 甜点层厚度、甜点区面积、（黄金）靶体评价符合率、地震分辨率、预测符合率，测井识别率、解释符合率 甜点规模、识别精度及评价符合率水平，技术先进性、适用性 压裂改造技术 压裂工艺，水平段长、加砂强度、单井砂量；注入规模、排液量；压裂段数/长度、每段簇数、压裂缝长、缝间距、压裂效率 压裂效率、压裂技术水平与先进性、适用性 开发优化技术 动用面积、动用地质储量、油层动用率、钻井工作量、井网井距及开采方式、单井产量、水平井/单井EUR，单井/平均采收率、水平井/年递减率、建产规模 产量、规模与建产效率，开发技术水平与先进性、可靠性 钻井工艺技术 （黄金）靶体钻遇率、机械钻速、钻井液量及重复利用率、水平井建井周期、建井成本 钻井效率、技术水平与先进性、适用性 地面工程技术 官网集输规模、联合站处理能力、智能系统利用率 集输规模、处理能力、地面工程技术水平与先进性、适用性 经济可行性 投资与成本分析 勘探投资、产能建设投资、单井钻井投资、钻井/压裂/地面工程投资、安全环保投资、单井投资、百万吨投资、总投资，单位产量（/可采储量）开发成本、建井综合成本、单位操作成本 资本投入状况，资本预算、投资方案科学性、客观性与合理性，技术经济性 财务分析 评价期内利润总额、税后财务净现值、税后内部收益率、投资回收期、行业基准收益率（6%） 财务盈利能力、投资收益大小 盈亏平衡与敏感性分析 原油价格、产量、建设投资、操作成本，盈亏平衡点，敏感参数波动率 财务经济适应性和抗经济风险能力 环境保护与节能可行性 环境保护可行性 环境敏感性、三废（废水、废气、废渣）收集率、三液（钻井液、采出液、压裂返排液）重复利用率、诱发地质灾害可能性、站址绿化率 对环境保护影响程度、环保技术与措施先进性、可靠性、经济性与有效性 节能可行性 水、电、气、温节能降耗指标，低碳技术采用率 节能降耗程度与可行性 风险因素及对策可行性 风险因素分析 资源风险、地质风险、技术风险、市场风险、财务风险、经济风险、职业病危害、工程施工风险及社会风险，等 风险分析全面性、合理性 避险对策分析 各项风险应对预案、主要风险避险对策 综合抗风险能力，避险对策合理性与可行性
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