Glacier Movement Characteristics and Influencing Factors in High Mountain Asia
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摘要: 冰川运动速度通过控制冰量输送变化影响冰川进退，认识冰川运动及影响机制有助于理解冰川变化差异性机理.利用ITS_LIVE冰川运动速度数据分析了亚洲高山区冰川运动时空特征，并基于地理探测器和相关分析探讨了亚洲高山区冰川运动及其变化的影响因素.青藏高原东南部和兴都库什山冰川运动特征值较大，西昆仑山、青藏高原中部、青藏高原东部、东天山等区域冰川运动特征值较小. 2000—2016年，亚洲高山区大多数冰川呈现减速的状态，念青唐古拉、横断山等地区冰川减速幅度最大，而西昆仑等地区冰川呈现增速状态.冰川运动主要受规模因素控制，兼受地形和气候等因素的影响，冰川运动变化主要受冰川物质平衡或者厚度变化的影响.Abstract: Under climate change, glacier movement controls mass transport changes, which further leads to the response of changes in glacier length, area and thickness. However, there are differences on response time and degree for glaciers in different scales and types. For further understanding the mechanism of heterogeneous glacier changes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of glacier movement in the High Mountain Asia were analyzed by using ITS_LIVE glacier velocity data. And the influencing factors of glacier movement, glacier velocity change were analysed by Geodetector and correlation analysis. The results are as follows: The characteristic values of glacier movement are larger in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the Hindu Kush, but smaller in the West Kunlun, the eastern Tianshan and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Most glaciers in the High Mountain Asia were slowing down during 2000-2016. Glaciers in Hengduan and Nianqentanglha Mountains decelerate most dramatically. In contrast, West Kunlun experience slightly accelerated glacier movement. Glacier movement is mainly controlled by glacier length and area (thickness), as well as terrain and climate factors. The change of glacier mass balance or thickness is the most important reason for glacier movement change.
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Key words:
- glacier movement /
- glacier mass balance /
- high mountain Asia /
- remote sensing monitoring /
- geodetector
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图 2 亚洲高山区冰川运动特征值
a. 区域所有冰川；b. 排除跃动冰川外的区域冰川
Fig. 2. Characteristic values of glacier movement in High Mountain Asia
图 3 亚洲高山区冰川运动变化（a）与高程变化（b）
Fig. 3. Variations of glacier movement (a) and elevation (b) in High Mountain Asia
表 1 不同山系冰川运动速度及特征值
Table 1. Velocities and characteristic values of glacier movement in different mountains
山系 统计冰川平均规模 平均运动速度 最大运动速度平均值 特征值 A N A N A N A N Dzhungarsky Alatau 7.4 7.4 3.0 3.0 11.3 11.3 0.13 0.13 东天山 10.3 10.3 4.2 4.2 21.2 21.2 0.19 0.19 西天山 19.1 14.2 10.4 6.9 106.3 59.3 0.31 0.26 希萨尔-阿莱山 12.9 13.1 7.0 7.1 41.5 41.9 0.30 0.30 帕米尔 17.3 15.7 13.2 11.6 108.6 105.1 0.37 0.22 兴都库什 14.9 14.9 10.8 10.8 103.5 103.5 0.54 0.54 喀喇昆仑山 24.9 13.4 19.7 8.9 219.3 78.6 0.39 0.24 西喜马拉雅 14.1 14.1 9.2 9.2 52.2 52.2 0.35 0.35 中喜马拉雅 13.2 13.2 6.7 6.7 42.6 42.6 0.32 0.32 东喜马拉雅 13.9 14.0 10.7 10.7 68.4 68.7 0.47 0.47 西昆仑山 19.2 16.8 5.4 4.0 34.6 25.5 0.19 0.17 东昆仑山 15.0 12.2 6.1 4.3 30.6 19.5 0.19 0.12 青藏高原内部 11.9 11.9 4.1 4.1 15.0 15.0 0.17 0.17 冈底斯山 7.9 7.9 1.7 1.7 6.8 6.8 0.10 0.10 念青唐古拉 14.3 13.5 15.0 12.4 138.3 110.3 0.55 0.54 唐古拉山 14.8 13.1 5.3 5.1 29.1 26.9 0.30 0.25 横断山 9.7 9.7 6.0 6.0 45.9 45.9 0.37 0.37 青藏高原东部 6.9 6.9 1.9 1.9 6.3 6.3 0.08 0.08 祁连山 9.1 9.1 3.0 3.0 11.8 11.8 0.15 0.15 阿尔金山 7.3 7.3 2.3 2.3 9.7 9.7 0.09 0.09 注：A为区域所有冰川，N为排除跃动冰川外的区域冰川，下同. 
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表 2 不同山系冰川运动速度变化与物质平衡
Table 2. Velocity variation and mass balance of glacier in different mountains
山系 运动速度变化（%/dec） 物质平衡（m w.e/a） A N A N Dzhungarsky Alatau -6.0 -6.0 -0.46 -0.46 东天山 -17.1 -17.1 -0.38 -0.38 西天山 -3.2 -2.0 -0.19 -0.18 希萨尔-阿莱山 -15.9 -14.0 -0.04 -0.04 帕米尔 -10.0 -12.7 -0.07 -0.06 兴都库什 -8.6 -8.7 -0.13 -0.13 喀喇昆仑山 -2.7 -2.2 -0.04 0.00 西喜马拉雅 -21.7 -21.7 -0.35 -0.35 中喜马拉雅 -15.1 -15.1 -0.33 -0.33 东喜马拉雅 -14.0 -14.0 -0.41 -0.41 西昆仑山 2.5 4.5 0.16 0.17 东昆仑山 -14.0 -7.4 -0.02 0.01 青藏高原内部 -8.1 -8.1 -0.03 -0.03 冈底斯山 -19.1 -19.1 -0.37 -0.37 念青唐古拉 -21.5 -25.0 -0.53 -0.51 唐古拉山 -10.5 -10.5 -0.32 -0.32 横断山 -25.6 -25.6 -0.60 -0.60 青藏高原东部 Null Null -0.41 -0.41 祁连山 -14.7 -14.7 -0.28 -0.28 阿尔金山 Null Null 0.11 0.11 注：Null为数值缺失，阿尔金山冰川物质平衡数据仅包括阿尔金山西段.
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表 3 亚洲高山区冰川运动速度地理探测结果
Table 3. Geodetector results of glacier velocity in High Mountain Asia
因素 L A Zai Zei Zae Zi Za P D S Ze T As q1 a 0.38 0.34 0.34 0.30 0.23 0.18 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 i 0.40 0.33 0.28 0.23 0.21 0.14 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 q2 a 0.30 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 i 0.31 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.16 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 注：q1为区域所有冰川的q值，q2为排除跃动冰川外的区域冰川的q值，a为最大运动速度，i为平均运动速度，下同.
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表 4 亚洲高山区冰川运动速度与影响因子之间相关性分析结果
Table 4. Correlation analysis results between glacier velocity and influencing factors in High Mountain Asia
因素 L A Zai Zei Zae Zi Za P D S Ze T As r1 a 0.61 0.48 0.53 0.51 0.44 -0.31 0.27 0.08 0.06 0.08 -0.03 0.01 -0.06 i 0.64 0.46 0.52 0.47 0.45 -0.30 0.26 0.12 0.07 -0.01 -0.05 0.03 -0.04 r2 a 0.53 0.43 0.48 0.47 0.39 -0.28 0.21 0.13 0.08 0.05 -0.05 0.08 -0.04 i 0.56 0.42 0.47 0.43 0.40 -0.27 0.20 0.19 0.09 -0.06 -0.05 0.15 -0.01 注：r1为区域所有冰川的相关系数; r2为排除跃动冰川外的区域冰川相关系数，下同.
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表 5 亚洲高山区冰川运动变化地理探测结果
Table 5. Geodetector results of glacier movement variation in High Mountain Asia
因素 M P T Za Ze D Pc S Tc Zi A Zei Zae L Zai As q1 0.18 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 q2 0.18 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
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表 6 亚洲高山区冰川运动变化相关性分析结果
Table 6. Correlation analysis results between glacier movement variation and influencing factors in High Mountain Asia
因素 M P T Za Ze D Pc S Tc Zi A Zei Zae L Zai As r1 0.41 -0.26 -0.24 0.13 0.10 -0.13 -0.02 0.18 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.06 r2 0.43 -0.24 -0.20 0.13 0.12 -0.12 -0.02 0.16 0.07 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.09
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