Parameter Back Analysis and Stability Prediction of Loess Landslide Based on NSGA-II Genetic Algorithm
-
摘要: 甘肃省永靖县黑方台台塬周边区域由于黄河移民大规模农业灌溉诱发了众多黄土滑坡灾害，其稳定性分析与滑面预测可为防灾减灾提供重要支撑，显得尤为重要.黑方台黄土滑坡具有渐进后退式的失稳特征，已发生滑坡灾害与潜在滑坡灾害具有高度相似性，其反分析结果可为未来滑坡稳定性分析提供重要数据基础.选用有限差分强度折减法，通过设定3个目标优化函数(土体抗剪强度参数均值误差函数、滑面位置误差函数和稳定性系数误差函数)，基于NSGA-II遗传算法开展稳定性反分析获取黄土的粘聚力和内摩擦角.以黑方台党川2#滑坡为例，通过第一次滑动时观测到的滑面信息，并假设其稳定性系数等于1，利用NGSA-II算法反分析得出当滑坡发生时，天然黄土层粘聚力为28.20 kPa，内摩擦角为25.16°，饱和黄土层有效粘聚力为16.59 kPa，有效内摩擦角为16.11°.基于该反分析结果，对党川2#滑坡后续3次失稳的稳定性系数和临界滑面进行了预测，并与实际观察结果对比验证.研究结果表明，通过多目标约束优化算法开展滑坡稳定性反分析可获得更加合理的黄土强度参数估计，为黑方台地区滑坡稳定性分析和风险定量评估提供了新的解决思路.Abstract: Many loess landslides were caused by the agricultural irrigation in Heifangtai terrace, Yongjing County, Gansu Province. Their stability analysis and critical slip surface identification are particularly important, as it can provide a good support to disaster prevention. The loess landslides located on the margin of Heifangtai terrace have the characteristics of progressive backward failure, and the occurred and potential landslides are highly similar. The results from back analysis can provide important data basis for future landslide stability prediction. In this paper, the finite difference strength reduction method was used to calibrate the cohesion and internal friction angle of loess based on the NSGA-II genetic algorithm by setting three objective optimization functions (i.e., mean value of soil strength parameters, slip surface and factor of safety). Taking Dangchuan 2# landslide in Heifangtai terrace as a study case, based on the slip surface observed after the first slide and assuming its factor of safety was equal to 1, the back analysis results show that the cohesion and internal friction angle of natural loess were 28.20 kPa and 25.16°; and the effective cohesion and internal friction angle of saturated loess were 16.59 kPa and 16.11°. Based on the computed results, the factor of safety and critical slip surface of the three subsequent slides were predicted, with their comparison with in-site observation information. The results show that a more reasonable estimation of loess strength parameters can be obtained by using the multi-objective constraint optimization algorithm, which provides a new solution for the stability analysis and quantitative risk assessment of landslides in Heifangtai terrace.
-
图 4 黑方台地区高程图及党川2#滑坡地理位置
Fig. 4. Elevation map of Heifangtai area and location of Dangchuan 2# landslide
图 9 党川2#滑坡渗流模拟后的FLAC模型
Fig. 9. FLAC model of Dangchuan 2# landslide after seepage simulation
图 14 第二次失稳预测临界滑面与稳定性系数
Fig. 14. Predicted critical slip surface and factor of safety for the second failure
表 1 各土层的渗流系数
Table 1. Seepage parameters of soil layers
土层 黄土层 粉质粘土层 渗流系数(m/s) 6.8×10‒6 2×10‒8 密度(g/cm3) 1.54 2.06 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 黄土抗剪强度参数统计信息
Table 2. Statistical information of loess
强度参数 均值 标准差 天然黄土粘聚力(kPa) 26.11 5.65 天然黄土内摩擦角(°) 23.58 4.65 饱和黄土有效粘聚力(kPa) 18.64 8.85 饱和黄土有效内摩擦角(°) 17.37 6.02
下载: 导出CSV
-
Bi, Y. Q., Zhang, M. S., Gu, T. F., et al., 2018. Soil-Water Characteristics and Strength Indexes of Unsaturated Loess. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 38(3): 520-527 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-DZXK201803016.htm Cao, Y., Mihardjo, L. W. W., Parikhani, T., 2020. Thermal Performance, Parametric Analysis, and Multi- Objective Optimization of a Direct-Expansion Solar- Assisted Heat Pump Water Heater Using NSGA-II and Decision Makings. Applied Thermal Engineering, 181: 115892. doi: 10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2020.115892 Deng, D. P., Li, L., Zhao, L. H., 2017. Back Analysis of Anti-Slide Strength Parameters of Slope Stability Based on Limit Equilibrium Theory. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 34(3): 67-73, 79 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-CJKB201703014.htm Feng, L., Hu, W., Zhang, M. S., et al., 2018. Study on Practical Use of Strength Theory Concerning Unsaturated Loess. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 54(5): 619-625 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-LDZK201805007.htm Griffiths, D. V., Lane, P. A., 1999. Slope Stability Analysis by Finite Elements. Géotechnique, 49(3): 387-403. doi: 10.1680/geot.1999.49.3.387 Gu, T., Sun, P., Wang, J., et al., 2020. An Experimental and Numerical Study of Landslides Triggered by Agricultural Irrigation in northwestern China. Advances in Civil Engineering, (3): 1-13. http://www.researchgate.net/publication/347291120_An_Experimental_and_Numerical_Study_of_Landslides_Triggered_by_Agricultural_Irrigation_in_Northwestern_China Gu, T. F., Zhang, M. X., Wang, C. X., et al., 2019. The Effect of Irrigation on Slope Stability in the Heifangtai Platform, Gansu Province, China. Engineering Geology, 248: 346-356. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.10.026 Guo, Q. Y., Gu, T. F., Xie, W. L., et al., 2018. Analysis of Shear Strength and Parameter Difference of Loess under Different Test Methods—Taking Heifangtai Loess Landslides in Gansu Province as an Example. Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention, 20(1): 25-31 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-8047.2018.01.004 He, C., Tang, H. M., Shen, P. W., et al., 2021. Progressive Failure Mode and Stability Reliability of Strain- Softening Slope. Earth Science, 46(2): 697-707 (in Chinese with English abstract). Huang, Y. H., Lü, Y. J., Rong, M. S., et al., 2017. Efficient Search for the Most Possible 3D Slip Surface on the Loess Slope and Its Stability Evaluation. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 12(1): 125-132 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-ZZFY201701014.htm Li, S., 2016. Experimental Study on the Influence of Long-Term Groundwater Action on Loess Strength in Heifangtai, Gansu Province (Dissertation). Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu (in Chinese with English abstract). Li, W., 2018. Experimental Study and Numerical Simulation on the Influence of Confining Pressure and Shear Rate on Shear Strength of Saturated Remolded Loess (Dissertation). Chang'an University, Xi'an (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-GCDZ201803008.htm Li, W. B., Fan, X. M., Huang, F. M., et al., 2021. Uncertainties of Landslide Susceptibility Modeling under Different Environmental Factor Connections and Prediction Models. Earth Science, 46(10): 3777-3795 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816221001090 Li, Y. F., 2019. Study on the Influence of Freeze-Thaw Action on Pore Structure and Slope Stability of Heifangtai Loess (Dissertation). China University of Geosciences, Beijing (in Chinese with English abstract). Lian, B., Wang, X., Zhu, R., et al., 2018. A Numerical Simulation Study of Landslides Induced by Irrigation in Heifangtai Loess Area—A Case Study of Huangci. Earth and Environmental Science, 108: 032064. Liu, W. H., Zhang, Y. Q., Li, T. L., et al., 2014. Analysis on Failure Mechanism of Unsaturated Loess Slope with Inverse Results of Soil Strength Parameters. Journal of Engineering Geology, 22(5): 915-920 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201405022.htm Ma, J. Q., 2012. Study on Stability of Loess Landslide at Platform Edge in Heifangtai Irrigation District (Dissertation). Jilin University, Changchun (in Chinese with English abstract). Nie, Z. B., Zheng, H., Zhang, T., 2017. Determination of Slope Critical Slip Surfaces Using Strength Reduction Method and Wavelet Transform. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 38(6): 1827-1831 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://www.researchgate.net/publication/321106370_Determination_of_slope_critical_slip_surfaces_using_strength_reduction_method_and_wavelet_transform Sayyaadi, H., Mehrabipour, R., 2012. Efficiency Enhancement of a Gas Turbine Cycle Using an Optimized Tubular Recuperative Heat Exchanger. Energy, 38(1): 362-375. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.048 Shen, Z. X., 2015. Study on Search Technology and Reinforcement Optimization of Slip Surface of Loess Slope (Dissertation). Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an (in Chinese with English abstract). Song, D. Y., Zhang, M. S., Mu, H. D., et al., 2018. Research on the Evolution Mechanism of Deformation and Failure of No. 13 Landslide in the North of Jiaojiayatou. Geological Bulletin of China, 37(7): 1360-1364 (in Chinese with English abstract). Sun, P. P., Zhang, M. S., Dong, Y., et al., 2013. The Coupled Analysis of Phreatic Water Flow and Slope Stability at Heifangtai Terrace, Gansu Province. Geological Bulletin of China, 32(6): 887-892 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-ZQYD201306010.htm Sun, X. P., Zeng, P., Li, T. B., et al., 2021. From Probabilistic Back Analyses to Probabilistic Run-out Predictions of Landslides: A Case Study of Heifangtai Terrace, Gansu Province, China. Engineering Geology, 280: 105950. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105950 Tarantola, A., 2005. Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter Estimation (2nd Ed.). Elsevier Science, New York. Wang, K., 2020. Study on the Formation Mechanism of Loess Landslide Induced by Irrigation—Taking Luojiapo Landslide in Heifangtai as an Example (Dissertation). Changan University, Xi'an (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu, J. H., 2016. Study on Stability of Landslide in Heifangtai Loess Plateau (Dissertation). Lanzhou University, Lanzhou (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu, R. Z., Hu, X. D., Mei, H. B., et al., 2021. Spatial Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on Random Forest: A Case Study from Hubei Section in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Earth Science, 46(1): 321-330 (in Chinese with English abstract). Xu, L., Dai, F. C., Tu, X. B., et al., 2013. Landslides in a Loess Platform, North-West China. Landslides, 11: 993-1005. Xu, Q., Peng, D. l., Qi, X., et al., 2016. Dangchuan 2#LANDSLIDE of April 29, 2015 in Heifangtai Area of Gansu Province: Characteristices and Failure Mechanism. Journal of Engineering Geology, 24(2): 167-180 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yang, F., 2013. Study on Deformation Mechanism of Loess Landslide Induced by Heifangtai Irrigation (Dissertation). Changan University, Xi'an (in Chinese with English abstract). Yuan, W., Hu, Y. J., Li, X. C., et al., 2016. An Approach to Determining Critical Slip Surface Based on Displacement Field Analysis. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 37(6): 1791-1798 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-YTLX201606032.htm Zhang, J., Wilson, H., Tang, L. M., et al., 2010. Efficient Probabilistic Back-Analysis of Slope Stability Model Parameters. Journal of Geotechnical Geoenvironmental Engineering, 136: 99-109. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000205 Zhang, J. B., Sun, J., Zhang, S., et al., 2012. Search for the Most Dangerous Slip Surface of 3D Loess-Slope Based on the Genetic Algorithm. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, (3): 19-22 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://www.gissky.net/paper/ShowSoftDown.asp?UrlID=1&SoftID=2260 Zhang, M. S., 2013. Formation Mechanism as Well as Prevention and Controlling Techniques of Loess Geo- Hazards in Irrigated Areas: A Case Study of Heifangtai Immigration Area in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yellow River. Geological Bulletin of China, 32(6): 833-839 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://www.researchgate.net/publication/286994733_Formation_mechanism_as_well_as_prevention_and_controlling_techniques_of_loess_geo-hazards_in_irrigated_areas_A_case_study_of_Heifangtai_immigration_area_in_the_Three_Gorges_Reservoir_of_the_Yellow_Riv Zhang, T. L., 2020. Study on Evaluation Method of Instability Probability of Soil Landslide Based on Active Learning Agent Model and Strength Reduction Method (Dissertation). Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhao, K. Y., Xu, Q., Liu, F. Z., et al., 2020. Seepage Characteristics of Preferential Flow in Loess. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 42(5): 941-950 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhao, L. H., Shi, Z., Lin, Y. L., et al., 2015. Reliability Back Analysis of Shear Strength Parameters of Landslide with Three-Dimensional Upper Bound Limit Analysis Theory. Landslides, 13(4): 711-724. http://www.onacademic.com/detail/journal_1000038113557410_7417.html Zhou, F., 2015. Study on Deformation Characteristics and Landslide Mechanism of Loess Slope in Heifangtai, Gansu Province (Dissertation). Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhu, Z. B., Wang, X. G., Zhu, R. S., et al., 2021. Ring Shear Test on the Shear Characteristics of Sliding Zone Soil of Loess in Heifangtai, Gansu. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 35(5): 144-150 (in Chinese with English abstract). 毕银强, 张茂省, 谷天峰, 等, 2018. 非饱和黄土土水特征及其强度指标. 防灾减灾工程学报, 38(3): 520-527. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZXK201803016.htm 邓东平, 李亮, 赵炼恒, 2017. 极限平衡理论下边坡稳定性抗滑强度参数反演分析. 长江科学院院报, 34(3): 67-73, 79. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CJKB201703014.htm 冯立, 胡炜, 张茂省, 等, 2018. 非饱和黄土强度理论的实用化方法研究. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 54(5): 619-625. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-LDZK201805007.htm 郭倩怡, 谷天峰, 谢婉丽, 等, 2018. 不同试验方法下黄土抗剪强度以及参数差异分析: 以甘肃省黑方台黄土滑坡为例. 防灾科技学院学报, 20(1): 25-31. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-FZJS201801004.htm 何成, 唐辉明, 申培武, 等, 2021. 应变软化边坡渐进破坏模式及稳定性可靠度. 地球科学, 46(2): 697-707. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.058 黄雅虹, 吕悦军, 荣棉水, 等, 2017. 黄土边坡"三维最危险滑裂面"的高效搜索和稳定性评价. 震灾防御技术, 12(1): 125-132. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZZFY201701014.htm 李姝, 2016. 甘肃黑方台地下水长期作用对黄土强度影响的试验研究(硕士学位论文). 成都: 成都理工大学. 李威, 2018. 围压及剪切速率对饱和重塑黄土抗剪强度影响试验研究及数值模拟(硕士学位论文). 西安: 长安大学. 李文彬, 范宣梅, 黄发明, 等, 2021. 不同环境因子联接和预测模型的滑坡易发性建模不确定性. 地球科学, 46(10): 3777-3795. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2021.042 李宇飞, 2019. 冻融作用对黑方台黄土孔隙结构及边坡稳定性影响研究(硕士学位论文). 北京: 中国地质大学. 刘文红, 张亚卿, 李同录, 等, 2014. 根据参数反演结果分析非饱和黄土边坡破坏机理. 工程地质学报, 22(5): 915-920. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201405022.htm 马建全, 2012. 黑方台灌区台缘黄土滑坡稳定性研究(博士学位论文). 长春: 吉林大学. 聂治豹, 郑宏, 张谭, 2017. 基于强度折减法确定边坡临界滑面的小波变换法. 岩土力学, 38(6): 1827-1831. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTLX201706034.htm 沈子翔, 2015. 黄土边坡滑裂面搜索技术与加固优化研究(硕士学位论文). 西安: 西安建筑科技大学. 宋登艳, 张茂省, 慕焕东, 等, 2018. 焦家崖头北部13号滑坡变形破坏演化机制. 地质通报, 37(7): 1360-1364. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZQYD201807019.htm 孙萍萍, 张茂省, 董英, 等, 2013. 甘肃永靖黑方台灌区潜水渗流场与斜坡稳定性耦合分析. 地质通报, 32(6): 887-892. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZQYD201306010.htm 王锴, 2020. 灌溉诱发黄土滑坡形成机理研究: 以黑方台罗家坡滑坡为例(硕士学位论文). 西安: 长安大学. 武金辉, 2016. 黑方台黄土台塬滑坡稳定性研究(硕士学位论文). 兰州: 兰州大学. 吴润泽, 胡旭东, 梅红波, 等, 2021. 基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价: 以三峡库区湖北段为例. 地球科学, 46(1): 321-330. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2020.032 许强, 彭大雷, 亓星, 等, 2016.2015年4.29甘肃黑方台党川2#滑坡基本特征与成因机理研究. 工程地质学报, 24(2): 167-180. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201602001.htm 杨飞, 2013. 黑方台灌溉诱发黄土滑坡变形机理研究(硕士学位论文). 西安: 长安大学. 袁维, 胡叶江, 李小春, 等, 2016. 一种基于位移场分析的临界滑动面确定方法研究. 岩土力学, 37(6): 1791-1798. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTLX201606032.htm 张剑波, 孙静, 张帅, 等, 2012. 黄土高边坡三维最危险滑裂面的遗传算法搜索. 测绘通报, (3): 19-22. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CHTB201203005.htm 张茂省, 2013. 引水灌区黄土地质灾害成因机制与防控技术: 以黄河三峡库区甘肃黑方台移民灌区为例. 地质通报, 32(6): 833-839. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZQYD201306002.htm 张天龙, 2020. 基于主动学习代理模型和强度折减法的土质滑坡失稳概率评价方法研究(硕士学位论文). 成都: 成都理工大学. 赵宽耀, 许强, 刘方洲, 等, 2020. 黄土中优势通道渗流特征研究. 岩土工程学报, 42(5): 941-950. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTGC202005022.htm 周飞, 2015. 甘肃省黑方台黄土斜坡变形特征与滑坡机理研究(硕士学位论文). 成都: 成都理工大学. 朱兆波, 王新刚, 朱荣森, 等, 2021. 甘肃黑方台黄土滑坡滑带土剪切特性环剪试验研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 35(5): 144-150. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GHZH202105021.htm -
点击查看大图
图(14) / 表(2)
计量
- 文章访问数: 710
- HTML全文浏览量: 580
- PDF下载量: 93
- 被引次数: 0
