Short-Impending Earthquake Prediction Method Based on High-Order Magnetic Anomaly Derivative and High-Order Statistic
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摘要: 中强级地震给我国人民生命财产安全带来不可磨灭的灾难，探索中强震发生时地球内部磁场与地震间的联系，获取地震发生的前兆信息，进而实现对中强级地震的预报，是亟待解决的关键问题. 近年来，地磁场垂直分量Z被普遍用来进行地震预警，但其存在预测周期长、阈值不易确定、对中强震预测精度不高等问题.为解决上述问题，提出一种基于高阶磁异常导数与高阶统计量的地震短临预测方法（简称：HMAD-HS），以有效减少高斯噪声对中强震前兆地磁信号的影响、缩短预测期、降低预测误报率，进而提高预测性能. 为验证该方法的可行性，以2017年新疆喀什地区中强震情况为例，将HMAD-HS与加卸载响应比、地磁逐日比等常用方法进行对比分析，实验表明：HMAD-HS处理得到的中强震前兆信号明显且漏报率与误报率降低30%以上，大幅提升了预报可信度. 此外，将HMAD-HS应用于我国多个地区的中强震短临预测，证明该方法具有普适性且对中强震预测效果良好.Abstract: In recent years, moderate-strong earthquakes have brought indelible disasters to the safety of people's lives and properties. Hence, exploring the connection between geomagnetic fields and earthquakes, obtaining precursor information, and then realizing the prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes are vital issues that need to be solved urgently. For now, the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field has been widely used for moderate-strong earthquake early warning. However, it still has numerous problems such as long prediction periods, difficulty in determining the threshold, and low prediction accuracy. To solve the above problems, a short-impending earthquake prediction method based on high-order magnetic anomaly derivative and high-order statistic, dubbed HMAD-HS, is proposed, which can effectively reduce the influence of Gaussian noise on the precursor geomagnetic field, shorten the prediction period, and then improve the prediction accuracy. To verify the feasibility of this method, taking the moderate-strong earthquakes of Kashgar, Xinjiang in 2017 as an example, the HMAD-HS was compared with two commonly used methods, i.e., load-unload response ratio and geomagnetic daily ratio. The experimental results show that the precursor signals of moderate-strong earthquakes obtained by HMAD-HS are obvious, and the missing report rate and false report rate are reduced by more than 30%, which greatly improves the forecast credibility. Further, the applications of HMAD-HS for the short-term prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in many regions of our country prove that the proposed method is universal and has a good effect on predicting moderate-strong earthquakes.
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图 1 我国近5年地震分布
底图据自然资源部审图号：GS（2020）4630号
Fig. 1. Earthquake distribution in China in recent 5 years
图 5 地震短临预测方法比较
Fig. 5. Comparison of different short-impending earthquake forecasting methods
图 6 基于HMAD-HS方法的成都地区地震短临预测结果
Fig. 6. Short-impending earthquake forecasting results of Chengdu using HMAD-HS
图 7 基于HMAD-HS方法的海西地区地震短临预测结果
Fig. 7. Short-impending earthquake forecasting results of Haixi using HMAD-HS
图 8 基于HMAD-HS方法的武汉地区地震短临预测结果
Fig. 8. Short-impending earthquake forecasting results of Wuhan using HMAD-HS
图 9 2017—2022年使用HMAD-HS方法针对不同地区中强震预测结果对比
Fig. 9. Comparison of medium-strong earthquake forecasting results of multi-cities using HMAD-HS from 2017 to 2022
表 1 地磁逐日比法、加卸载响应比法、以及HMAD-HS方法对比结果
Table 1. Quantified comparison using geomagnetic daily ratio, loading and unloading response ratio, and HMAD-HS
方法 地磁逐日比 加卸载响应比 HMAD-HS 阈值 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 \\ 漏报率 0 0 100% 0 0 50% 0 误报率 81.8% 60% 0 75% 50% 50% 0 涵盖率 100% 100% 0 100% 100% 50% 100% 
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