On Early Warning of First Debris Flow after a Wildfire
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摘要: 火后泥石流是一种易发且破坏力强的灾害，是山区开展防灾减灾的重要对象.国外研究火后泥石流预测模型只针对数据库所在的区域预测效果良好，对其他地区的预测结果不理想.森林火灾会造成林下土壤斥水性显著增强，发生降雨时，极易形成大流量山洪，诱发泥石流.在山火后的第一个雨季泥石流发生的降雨阈值很低，泥石流发生概率很高.选择四川凉山州发生的山火为研究案例，提出等效前期降雨量概念，并通过野外人工降雨实验，建立等效前期降雨量计算模型，结合常规泥石流预警公式建立沟床起动类型的火后首次泥石流的预警模型，在国内凉山、甘孜地区和美国地区的火后首次泥石流案例中，验证了方法的可靠性，为火后泥石流的减灾防灾提供一种新的方法.Abstract: Postfire debris flows are hazards that can easily occur and are highly destructive, making them an important target for hazard prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas. Postfire debris flow prediction models developed by researchers outside China offer good prediction results only for regions corresponding to the databases used but poor prediction results for other regions. A forest fire can significantly increase the water repellency of the soil under the forest, and when rainfall occurs, flash floods with high flows form very easily and trigger debris flows. In the first rainy season after a wildfire, the rainfall threshold for debris flow occurrence is very low and the probability of debris flow occurrence is very high. Using wildfires in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, a concept of equivalent antecedent rainfall (EAR) was introduced, and an EAR calculation model was established through artificial rainfall experiments. An early warning model for the first postfire gully-type debris flow was established using the general quation. The reliability of the method was verified using initial postfire debris flow events in Sichuan, China, and in the United States. The early warning model for first postfire debris flow in this study is a new method for hazard mitigation and the prevention of postfire debris flows.
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Key words:
- postfire debris flow /
- early warning model /
- equivalent antecedent /
- rainfall /
- gully type /
- engineering geology
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图 1 研究区地形地貌及过火区域、火后泥石流沟分布
Fig. 1. Topography and geomorphology of the study area and locations of the burned area and postfire debris flow gullies
图 3 微型人工降雨原位实验图
Fig. 3. In-situ experimental figure of mini artificial rainfall system
图 4 土壤渗透系数与总降雨量关系
Fig. 4. Relationship between soil permeability coefficient and total rainfall
图 5 不同土壤质地颗粒分析曲线图
Fig. 5. Grain size distribution curves of soils with different textures
图 6 不同类型土壤渗透系数与总降雨量关系
Fig. 6. Relationship between soil permeability coefficient and total rainfall
图 7 山火后土壤渗透系数与坡度的关系
Fig. 7. Relationship between postfire soil permeability coefficient and slope angle
图 8 不同火烈度下，土壤渗透系数与前期降雨量的关系
Fig. 8. Relationship between soil permeability coefficient and rainfall under different fire intensities
图 9 等效前期降雨量与土壤渗透系数的关系
Fig. 9. Relationship between EAR and soil permeability coefficient
图 10 预警模型在四川凉山的验证
1. 中坝发生泥石流沟; 2. 中坝未发生泥石流沟; 3. 鹿鹤村发生泥石流沟; 4. 鹿鹤村未发生泥石流沟; 5. 光福寺发生泥石流沟; 6. 响水沟发生泥石流沟; 7. 响水沟未发生泥石流沟
Fig. 10. Validation of the early warning model using data from Liangshan, Sichuan
图 11 预警模型在四川甘孜的验证
Fig. 11. Validation of the early warning model using data from Ganzi, Sichuan
图 12 美国加利福尼亚州和科罗拉多州各地雨量站和火后首次泥石流沟分布
Fig. 12. Distribution of rainfall stations and gullies with initial postfire debris flows in California and Colorado
图 13 1 h降雨预警模型在美国的验证
1. 发生泥石流流域；2. 发生泥石流流域；3. 发生泥石流流域；4. 未发生泥石流流域；5. 未发生泥石流流域；6. 未发生泥石流流域
Fig. 13. Validation of the early warning model with 1 h rainfall data using cases in the United States
表 1 四川凉山地区地形、地质和水源因子数据汇总
Table 1. Summary data on topographic, geological, and hydrological factors in Liangshan, Sichuan
沟名 L (km) J A(km2) T Bz (mm) I(mm) Bq(mm) R1 P R 是否发生泥石流 中坝1# 0.22 0.85 0.04 0.35 6.5 6.5 434 1.30 0.32 0.04 是 中坝2# 0.30 0.59 0.07 0.29 6.5 6.5 434 1.30 0.31 0.04 是 中坝3# 0.27 0.69 0.08 0.42 6.5 6.5 434 1.30 0.34 0.04 是 中坝4# 0.62 0.60 0.26 0.31 6.5 6.5 434 1.30 0.32 0.04 是 中坝5# 0.92 0.56 0.37 0.20 6.5 6.5 271 0.90 0.20 0.04 否 中坝6# 0.78 0.58 0.23 0.17 6.5 6.5 282 0.92 0.20 0.04 否 鹿鹤村1# 0.46 0.31 0.14 0.14 27.5 27.5 43 1.02 0.26 0.15 否 鹿鹤村2# 0.31 0.55 0.04 0.13 27.5 27.5 41 1.02 0.26 0.15 否 鹿鹤村3# 0.33 0.55 0.07 0.07 27.5 27.5 203 1.42 0.35 0.15 是 鹿鹤村4# 0.58 0.44 0.04 0.12 27.5 27.5 203 1.42 0.35 0.15 是 鹿鹤村5# 0.77 0.72 0.13 0.11 27.5 27.5 203 1.42 0.32 0.15 是 鹿鹤村6# 0.96 0.46 0.10 0.08 27.5 27.5 203 1.42 0.35 0.15 是 鹿鹤村7# 0.67 0.41 0.29 0.11 27.5 27.5 203 1.42 0.34 0.15 是 鹿鹤村8# 0.55 0.51 0.16 0.10 27.5 27.5 92 1.14 0.25 0.15 否 光福寺1# 0.63 0.47 0.15 0.12 29.1 29.1 185 1.43 0.36 0.16 是 光福寺2# 0.69 0.37 0.23 0.13 29.1 29.1 185 1.43 0.36 0.16 是 光福寺3# 0.79 0.51 0.35 0.23 29.1 29.1 185 1.43 0.40 0.16 是 光福寺4# 1.12 0.47 0.40 0.12 29.1 29.1 185 1.43 0.36 0.16 是 响水沟1# 0.49 0.37 0.36 0.11 16.3 16.3 326 1.35 0.34 0.09 是 响水沟2# 1.41 0.72 0.20 0.11 16.3 16.3 326 1.35 0.33 0.09 是 响水沟3# 0.74 0.41 0.13 0.13 16.3 16.3 326 1.35 0.33 0.09 是 响水沟4# 0.34 0.27 0.09 0.12 21.2 12.0 161 0.81 0.20 0.09 否 响水沟5# 0.31 0.26 0.08 0.12 21.6 13.0 158 0.81 0.20 0.09 否 响水沟6# 0.36 0.29 0.07 0.09 21.6 13.0 157 0.81 0.19 0.09 否 响水沟7# 0.44 0.45 0.14 0.23 19.8 12.0 177 0.84 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟8# 0.44 0.51 0.19 0.37 19.1 12.0 186 0.85 0.26 0.09 否 响水沟9# 0.95 0.36 0.38 0.13 16.3 13.2 215 0.97 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟10# 0.87 0.58 0.43 0.28 16.1 13.1 174 0.87 0.25 0.09 否 响水沟11# 0.76 0.38 0.44 0.24 13.9 11.1 194 0.85 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟12# 0.36 0.49 0.03 0.05 12.5 10.0 258 0.97 0.20 0.09 否 响水沟13# 0.26 0.26 0.04 0.08 9.6 7.1 290 0.96 0.22 0.09 否 响水沟14# 0.51 0.31 0.17 0.15 9.6 7.1 289 0.96 0.25 0.09 否 响水沟15# 0.56 0.43 0.13 0.12 10 7.5 285 0.96 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟16# 0.31 0.41 0.08 0.20 10.3 6.4 281 0.91 0.25 0.09 否 响水沟17# 0.26 0.40 0.03 0.10 11 6.8 274 0.90 0.22 0.09 否 响水沟18# 0.42 0.53 0.07 0.13 11.8 7.3 266 0.90 0.23 0.09 否 响水沟19# 0.46 0.41 0.08 0.09 11.8 7.3 266 0.90 0.21 0.09 否 响水沟20# 0.33 0.35 0.05 0.09 11.6 6.8 268 0.88 0.21 0.09 否 响水沟21# 0.26 0.38 0.04 0.11 11.9 6.9 265 0.88 0.21 0.09 否 响水沟22# 0.41 0.50 0.10 0.18 13.4 8.4 247 0.89 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟23# 0.29 0.55 0.04 0.14 13.9 8.6 242 0.88 0.23 0.09 否 响水沟24# 0.33 0.51 0.07 0.18 16.2 10.3 216 0.88 0.24 0.09 否 响水沟25# 0.45 0.45 0.09 0.13 15.8 10.3 222 0.89 0.22 0.09 否 响水沟26# 0.58 0.37 0.27 0.23 15.6 10.3 224 0.90 0.25 0.09 否 响水沟27# 0.46 0.12 0.12 0.04 17.5 11.1 202 0.87 0.18 0.09 否 响水沟28# 0.41 0.22 0.08 0.07 18.2 11.3 195 0.86 0.19 0.09 否 
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表 2 四川甘孜地区地形、地质和水源因子数据汇总
Table 2. Summary of data on topographic, geological, and hydrological factors in Ganzi, Sichuan
沟名 L(km) J A(km2) T G 过火面积占比 I(mm) Bq(mm) R1 P 泥石流发生次序 是否发生泥石流 F1 1.47 0.26 1.68 0.22 7.68 0.52 1.9 252 1.72 0.46 首次 否 21.9 125 2.62 0.70 准首次 否 F2 0.36 0.52 0.09 0.22 7.68 0.93 1.9 451 2.96 0.79 首次 是 1.2 458 2.95 0.79 准首次 是 3.0 416 2.84 0.76 准首次 是 21.9 224 3.23 0.86 准首次 是 F3-2 0.39 0.46 0.07 0.12 7.68 0.86 21.9 207 3.13 0.74 准首次 是 1.9 417 2.75 0.65 首次 否 F4 0.35 0.44 0.04 0.08 7.68 0.86 1.9 384 2.64 0.57 首次 否 3.0 417 2.75 0.59 准首次 是 21.9 207 3.13 0.67 准首次 否 F5-1 0.75 0.50 0.29 0.20 8.64 0.82 1.9 198 3.07 0.76 首次 否 21.9 397 2.63 0.65 准首次 是 F6 0.45 0.61 0.10 0.19 8.64 0.84 1.9 407 2.69 0.66 首次 否 21.9 202 3.10 0.76 准首次 否
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表 3 美国加利福尼亚州和科罗拉多州各地1 h变差系数计算数据汇总
Table 3. Summary of the calculated 1 h COV data for various locations in California and Colorado in the United States
火灾点 地点 R1h σ CV Old and Grand Prix火灾 加利福利亚州南部 36.65 16.49 0.45 Missionary Ridge火灾 科罗拉多州西南部 55.29 25.99 0.47 Coal Seam火灾 科罗拉多州中南部 65.99 33.78 0.51
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表 4 美国各地火后首次泥石流流域在1 h降雨预警模型中地形、地质和水源因子数据汇总
Table 4. Summary of data on topographic, geological and hydrological factors in the early warning model with 1 h rainfall for catchments with initial postfire debris flows across the United States
沟名 L
(km)J A
(km2)高烈度火烧区占比 T G B
(mm)I
(mm)Bq
(mm)R1 P 是否发生泥石流 Mitchell Creek 0.62 0.68 0.51 0.75 0.79 8 6.99 6.99 233 1.55 0.52 是 Fish hatchery 0.11 1.01 0.02 0.75 0.76 8 12.19 12.19 188 1.64 0.55 是 south canyon 0.32 0.50 0.12 0.75 0.39 8 17.02 17.02 146 1.73 0.51 是 A 1.46 0.39 2.25 0.75 0.48 8 9.27 9.27 213 1.59 0.48 是 B 0.65 0.72 0.46 0.75 0.67 8 8.51 8.51 220 1.57 0.51 是 CS1# 0.68 0.30 0.20 0.75 0.09 8 12.19 12.19 188 1.64 0.36 否 CS2# 0.32 0.17 0.13 0.75 0.14 8 6.99 6.99 233 1.55 0.37 否 CS3# 0.38 0.31 0.04 0.75 0.05 8 11.58 11.58 193 1.63 0.31 否 CS4# 0.65 0.26 0.21 0.75 0.09 8 11.35 11.35 195 1.63 0.36 否 CS5# 0.68 0.21 0.20 0.75 0.07 8 9.61 9.61 211 1.59 0.33 否 CS6# 0.52 0.33 0.16 0.75 0.14 8 9.61 9.61 211 1.59 0.38 否 33 0.39 0.70 0.22 0.70 0.75 10 23.50 11.68 190 1.59 0.47 是 34 0.74 0.47 0.55 0.70 0.42 10 86.85 32.00 87 2.30 0.61 是 35 0.38 0.70 0.28 0.70 1.06 10 43.20 22.86 133 1.98 0.63 是 59 0.18 0.27 0.13 0.70 0.73 10 46.25 20.32 85 1.60 0.47 是 60 0.98 0.48 1.18 0.70 0.62 10 50.40 22.86 75 1.70 0.49 是 62 0.29 0.80 0.22 0.70 1.55 10 41.40 14.73 73 1.22 0.42 是 64 0.55 0.82 0.38 0.70 0.85 10 39.40 14.73 90 1.29 0.40 是 67 0.41 0.31 0.35 0.70 0.53 10 8.90 5.59 253 1.53 0.42 是 68 0.21 1.05 0.12 0.70 1.87 10 15.25 10.16 243 1.75 0.63 是 2956 0.36 0.39 0.35 0.70 0.86 10 60.05 29.97 39 1.96 0.60 是 2965 0.22 0.45 0.11 0.70 0.65 10 33.50 16.26 151 1.68 0.49 是 2966 0.72 0.97 0.49 0.70 0.79 10 40.00 18.29 117 1.63 0.49 是 2969 0.35 0.84 0.23 0.70 1.17 10 20.85 12.19 216 1.74 0.57 是 2840 0.74 0.59 0.48 0.70 0.44 10 50.29 50.29 84 3.37 0.90 是 2864 0.22 0.50 0.08 0.70 0.50 10 15.25 12.19 262 1.96 0.54 是 2875 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.70 0.80 10 25.90 10.16 157 1.34 0.41 是 2881 0.2 0.45 0.15 0.70 1.14 10 44.60 32.00 204 2.86 0.93 是 543844 0.12 1.10 0.04 0.70 1.61 10 9.14 9.14 209 1.53 0.53 是 534861 0.21 0.73 0.10 0.70 1.05 10 19.81 19.81 134 1.80 0.57 是 543864 0.98 0.43 0.82 0.70 0.35 10 68.35 24.89 61 1.76 0.45 是 534865 0.10 0.72 0.03 0.70 1.07 10 11.68 11.68 191 1.60 0.51 是 OG1# 0.62 0.06 0.11 0.70 0.01 10 8.90 5.59 253 1.53 0.19 否 OG2# 0.64 0.05 0.17 0.70 0.01 10 8.90 5.59 253 1.53 0.20 否 OG3# 0.86 0.19 0.29 0.70 0.06 10 10.16 10.16 202 1.56 0.28 否 OG4# 0.45 0.31 0.08 0.70 0.07 10 10.16 10.16 202 1.56 0.29 否 OG5# 0.33 0.06 0.03 0.70 0.01 10 10.16 10.16 202 1.56 0.19 否 OG6# 0.76 0.14 0.17 0.70 0.03 10 50.40 22.86 75 1.70 0.26 否 OG7# 0.37 0.22 0.02 0.70 0.01 10 50.40 22.86 75 1.70 0.23 否 OG8# 0.27 0.43 0.02 0.70 0.05 10 12.19 12.19 188 1.61 0.28 否 OG9# 0.31 0.37 0.03 0.70 0.06 10 19.81 19.81 134 1.80 0.32 否 OG10# 0.75 0.46 0.39 0.70 0.26 10 41.40 14.73 73 1.22 0.29 否 OG11# 0.52 0.31 0.09 0.70 0.06 10 40.00 18.29 117 1.63 0.30 否 OG12# 0.47 0.26 0.04 0.70 0.02 10 86.85 32.00 87 2.30 0.35 否 OG13# 0.68 0.28 0.19 0.70 0.08 10 73.55 28.45 68 2.00 0.38 否 OG14# 0.54 0.38 0.07 0.70 0.05 10 73.55 28.45 68 2.00 0.35 否 OG15# 0.39 0.30 0.05 0.70 0.05 10 73.55 28.45 68 2.00 0.35 否 OG16# 0.75 0.14 0.17 0.70 0.03 10 73.55 28.45 68 2.00 0.31 否 OG17# 0.24 0.43 0.02 0.70 0.07 10 71.00 28.45 63 1.98 0.37 否 OG18# 0.42 0.22 0.03 0.70 0.02 10 75.55 37.08 65 2.50 0.36 否 OG19# 0.65 0.19 0.05 0.70 0.01 10 75.55 37.08 65 2.50 0.33 否 OG20# 0.53 0.30 0.27 0.70 0.22 10 34.00 8.13 73 0.83 0.19 否 OG21# 0.58 0.27 0.12 0.70 0.06 10 23.50 11.68 190 1.59 0.29 否 A3 1.12 0.40 1.79 0.61 0.65 9 3.00 3.00 291 1.48 0.45 是 A4 0.26 0.38 0.27 0.61 1.18 9 5.84 5.84 274 1.56 0.54 是 A5 0.65 0.14 0.99 0.61 0.34 9 13.85 13.85 226 1.80 0.48 是 A6 0.30 0.60 0.20 0.61 0.96 9 23.75 23.75 166 2.09 0.69 是 A7 0.44 0.68 0.37 0.61 1.06 9 1.15 1.15 302 1.43 0.48 是 A8 0.61 0.42 0.87 0.61 0.97 9 8.51 8.51 258 1.64 0.54 是 A9 0.43 0.39 0.47 0.61 0.85 9 6.10 6.10 272 1.57 0.51 是 A10 0.31 0.45 0.21 0.61 0.72 9 6.10 6.10 272 1.57 0.49 是 MR1# 0.36 0.16 0.08 0.61 0.06 9 1.15 1.15 302 1.43 0.27 否 MR2# 0.42 0.26 0.06 0.61 0.06 9 6.10 6.10 272 1.57 0.29 否 MR3# 0.70 0.13 0.20 0.61 0.04 9 8.51 8.51 258 1.64 0.28 否 MR4# 0.49 0.32 0.15 0.61 0.14 9 23.75 23.75 166 2.09 0.47 否 MR5# 0.48 0.21 0.12 0.61 0.07 9 13.85 13.85 226 1.80 0.35 否 MR6# 0.39 0.33 0.06 0.61 0.07 9 5.84 5.84 274 1.56 0.31 否 MR7# 0.85 0.12 0.47 0.61 0.07 9 3.00 3.00 291 1.48 0.29 否
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