Vegetation Changes in Tarim River Basin over Past 20 Years and Their Relationship with Climate Factors
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摘要: 为了解西北“暖湿化”进程中气候因素对塔里木河流域植被变化的驱动作用, 基于线性回归、变异系数、Person相关系数、Hurst指数和偏导数方法, 利用MODIS卫星遥感数据和气候数据对塔里木河流域植被变化的气候驱动机制进行定量评估.结果表明：该流域植被最优长势和生产力水平呈波动上升趋势, 指数NDVI、EVI、NPP增速分别为0.036 4/10a、0.023 8/10a、12.606 1 gC/（m2·10a）.Hurst指数显示, 研究区大部分区域植被存在持续变化的不确定性问题, 持续改善区域分别占流域面积的19.7%、18.7%和6.1%.流域尺度上, 气候因素对NDVI、EVI、NPP的贡献分别为0.0016/10a、0.0010/ 10a、2.8019 gC/（m2∙10a）.相较于气温, 降水是影响植被变化的主要气候因子；辐射对植被变化有抑制作用.气候变化对植被最优长势变化的贡献有限, 却促进了植被生产力的明显改善, 结果揭示了塔里木河流域植被变化及气候驱动的空间特征.Abstract: To understand the role of climatic factors in driving vegetation changes in the Tarim River Basin during the "warming and humidification" process in Northwest China, based on the linear regression, coefficient of variation, Person correlation coefficient, Hurst index and partial derivative methods, the climate-driven mechanism of vegetation change in the Tarim River Basin was quantitatively evaluated using MODIS satellite remote sensing data and meteorological data. It is found that the optimal vegetation growth and productivity levels in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the index NDVI, EVI, and NPP growth rates were 0.036 4/10a, 0.023 8/10a, and 12.606 1 gC/(m2∙10a), respectively. The Hurst index shows that the study area had the problem of uncertainty of continuous change in vegetation, and the areas of continuous improvement accounted for 19.7%, 18.7%, and 6.1% of the watershed area, respectively. At the watershed scale, the contributions of climatic factors to NDVI, EVI, and NPP were 0.001 6/10a, 0.001 0/10a, and 2.801 9 gC/(m2∙10a), respectively. Precipitation was the main climatic factor affecting vegetation change compared to air temperature; radiation had an inhibitory effect on vegetation change. Climate change contributed limitedly to the changes in optimal vegetation growth, but promoted significant improvements in vegetation productivity. The results reveal the spatial characteristics of vegetation change and climate-driven changes in the Tarim River Basin.
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Key words:
- Tarim River Basin /
- vegetation change /
- driving mechanism /
- quantitative evaluation /
- climate change
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图 1 塔里木河流域地理位置及气候特征
该图基于国家青藏高原科学数据中心塔里木河流域边界数据集（2000）绘制, 底图边界无修改；国界基于自然资源部地图技术审查中心标准地图（审图号：GS（2019）1822号）绘制, 底图边界无修改.下同
Fig. 1. Geographical location and climatic characteristics of Tarim River Basin
图 2 2001‒2020年塔里木河流域植被指数和变异系数空间格局及随海拔的变化特征
Fig. 2. Spatial pattern of vegetation index and coefficient of variation and its variation characteristics with altitude in Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2020
图 3 2001‒2020年塔里木河流域NDVI、EVI、NPP变化趋势
Fig. 3. NDVI, EVI and NPP trends in the Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2020
图 4 塔里木河流域NDVI、EVI、NPP的Hurst指数及可持续性的空间分布
Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of NDVI, EVI, NPP Hurst index and sustainability in Tarim River Basin
图 5 2001‒2020年塔里木河流域气候变化特征
Fig. 5. Characteristics of climate change in Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2020
图 6 2001‒2020年塔里木河流域NDVI、EVI、NPP与气候因子相关系数分布
Fig. 6. Correlation coefficient distribution of NDVI, EVI, NPP and climatic factors in Tarim River Basin from 2001 to 2020
图 7 气候因子对塔里木河流域NDVI、EVI、NPP变化的贡献
Fig. 7. Contribution of climatic factors to NDVI, EVI and NPP changes in the Tarim River Basin
图 8 气候因子和其他因素对塔里木河流域植被变化的贡献
Fig. 8. Contribution of climatic factors and other factors to vegetation change in Tarim River Basin
表 1 数据来源及说明
Table 1. Data source and description
数据 产品 时段（年） 时间分辨率 空间分辨率 数据来源 MOD13 A3 NDVI、EVI 2001‒2020 月 1 km https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/ MOD17 A3HGF NPP 2001‒2020 年 500 m https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/ 气温 月平均气温 2001‒2020 月 1 km http://www.geodata.cn/ 降水 月累计降水 2001‒2020 月 1 km http://www.tpdc.ac.cn 辐射 月平均辐射 2001‒2020 月 0.1° https://www.copernicus.eu/en 
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表 2 塔里木河流域NDVI、EVI、NPP变异系数面积比例（%）
Table 2. NDVI, EVI, NPP coefficient of variation area ratioin Tarim River Basin （%）
变异系数 波动程度 NDVI EVI NPP 0.00 < CV < 0.16 低波动 46.2 58.0 83.2 0.16 < CV < 0.35 相对较低波动 43.5 34.6 15.2 0.35 < CV < 0.76 中度波动 8.9 6.5 1.4 0.76 < CV < 1.74 相对较高波动 1.3 0.9 0.2 CV > 1.74 高波动 0.1 0 0
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表 3 NDVI、EVI、NPP可持续性变化分类
Table 3. NDVI, EVI, NPP sustainability change classification
Hurst 斜率 P 变化类型 NDVI（%） EVI（%） NPP（%） H > 0.5 S < 0 P≤0.05 持续显著减少 0.8 1.0 1.1 H > 0.5 S < 0 P > 0.05 持续不显著减少 1.9 3.9 1.0 H > 0.5 S > 0 P≤0.05 持续显著增加 19.1 17.0 5.8 H > 0.5 S > 0 P > 0.05 持续不显著减少 12.3 3.4 7.7 H= 0.5 — — 随机游走分布 0.3 10.0 54.1 H < 0.5 S < 0 P≤0.05 反持续显著减少 0.8 0.9 1.3 H < 0.5 S < 0 P > 0.05 反持续不显著减少 6.3 7.4 1.7 H < 0.5 S > 0 P≤0.05 反持续显著增加 28.9 26.7 10.5 H < 0.5 S > 0 P > 0.05 反持续不显著增加 29.6 29.7 16.8
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