喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征

邹强; 周斌; 杨涛; 陈思谕; 姚鸿坤; 蒋虎; 周文韬

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2024.083

喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2024.083

邹强^1, , ,,
周斌^{1, 2},
杨涛¹,
陈思谕^{1, 3},
姚鸿坤^{1, 2},
蒋虎^{1, 2},
周文韬^{1, 2}

1.
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所山地自然灾害与工程安全全国重点实验室, 四川成都 610299
2.
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3.
西南科技大学环境与资源学院, 四川绵阳 621010

基金项目:

第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目 2019QZKK0902

国家自然科学基金项目 42171085

中国科学院“西部之光‒西部交叉团队”项目 xbzg-zdsys-202104

详细信息

作者简介:
邹强（1982-），男，研究员，博士，主要从事山地灾害致灾机理与风险研究.ORCID：0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

通讯作者:
邹强, ORCID: 0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

中图分类号: P951
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-09-14
- 刊出日期: 2024-11-25

Spatio-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Himalayas

Zou Qiang^{1
, ,
,},
Zhou Bin^{1, 2},
Yang Tao¹,
Chen Siyu^{1, 3},
Yao Hongkun^{1, 2},
Jiang Hu^{1, 2},
Zhou Wentao^{1, 2}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3.
School of Environment and Resources, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China

摘要

摘要: 全球气候变暖导致了喜马拉雅高海拔山区的环境变化，冰湖溃决频繁发生，给下游人民和设施造成了巨大的损失.为了解喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征，利用地貌分析、时序分析和气候扰动分析方法，分析了喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰川冰湖变化及环境特征，阐明了喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空格局和演化规律.结果表明：（1）1980‒2014年间喜马拉雅高海拔山区气温和降水均显著增加，且增加速率北坡大于南坡.受地形与气候条件控制，喜马拉雅山北坡冰川损失更为严重；西喜马拉雅比东、中喜马拉雅冰川损失更为严重.冰湖集中分布在中喜马拉雅地区，而喜马拉雅山南坡分布冰湖相对于北坡更多.1990‒2015年间南坡冰湖数量与面积增幅均大于北坡，新增冰湖海拔高于消失冰湖.（2）20世纪以来，喜马拉雅及周边高海拔山区113个冰湖发生了249次溃决；溃决冰湖集中分布在河流陡河段或极陡河段；气候变暖导致区域冰湖溃决数量呈现非线性增加趋势，1901‒2020年间冰湖溃决存在断点1966⁺³⁷/_‒31年，冰湖溃决对升温速率存在20年尺度的滞后效应.研究结果可为应对气候变化下防灾减灾和跨境灾害风险防控提供科学依据.
- 冰湖溃决 /
- 分异规律 /
- 气候变化 /
- 喜马拉雅 /
- 环境地质 /
- 地质灾害
Abstract: Global warming has led to environmental changes in the Himalayas, and glacial lake outburst has occurred frequently, having inflicted significant losses upon downstream communities and infrastructure. To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of Himalayan glacial lake outbursts, it employed geomorphic analysis, time series analysis, and climate perturbation analysis. These methods allowed us to analyze the spatial differentiation and variation characteristics of glaciers, glacial lakes and environments in the Himalayas, and to reveal the evolution patterns of glacial lake outbursts' spatio-temporal distribution in the region. The results show follows: (1) Temperature and precipitation has increased considerably in the Himalayan region between 1980 and 2014, with a more significant increase rate observed on the northern than southern sides. Due to the influence of topography and climate, the northern slope of Himalayas and western Himalayas experienced more severe glacier mass loss. Glacial lakes were predominantly concentrated in the central Himalayas and the southern slope of Himalayas, and the number and area of glacial lakes on the southern slopes have increased more than those on the northern slopes during 1990‒2015, and the new glacial lakes are distributed at a higher elevation than the disappearing ones. (2) Since the 20th century, 249 glacial lake outburst events have occurred in 113 glacial lakes in the Himalayan region and its surrounding areas. The distribution of those glacial lakes is predominantly concentrated in major rivers' steep or extremely steep sections. The number of regional glacial lake outbursts has shown a nonlinear increase trend driven by climate change. The occurrence frequency of glacial lake outburst disasters has a breakpoint of 1966⁺³⁷/_-31 from 1901 to 2020. Furthermore, there is a lag effect of approximately 20 years between the warming rate and the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods. These research findings can provide a scientific basis for addressing climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and cross-border disaster risk management.
- glacial lake outburst /
- differentiation pattern /
- climate change /
- Himalayas /
- environmental geology /
- hazards

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图 1 喜马拉雅造山带主要构造单元及南北坡3条带状剖面

Fig. 1. Main tectonic units of the Himalayan orogenic belt and three belt profiles on the north and south slopes of the Himalayas

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图 2 喜马拉雅高海拔山区2000‒2016年冰川面积和物质平衡变化

Fig. 2. Change of glacier area and mass balance in the Himalayas during 2000‒2016

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图 3 2015年喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖空间分布

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of glacial lakes in the Himalayas in 2015

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图 4 不同高程分级下喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖数量与面积分布

Fig. 4. Distribution of the number and area of glacial lakes in the Himalayas under different elevation classifications

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图 5 不同高程分级下喜马拉雅高海拔山区新增和消失冰湖数量与面积统计

Fig. 5. Number and area of new and disappeared glacial lakes in the Himalayas under different elevation classifications

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图 6 1980‒2014年喜马拉雅高海拔山区年均气温和年内日最高气温时空变化趋势

a.年均气温变化；b.年内日最高气温变化；c.年均温变化趋势空间分布，其中黑点代表通过0.05显著性水平检验的栅格；d.年内日最高气温变化趋势空间分布，其中黑点代表通过0.05显著性水平检验的栅格

Fig. 6. Spatial and temporal trends of annual mean temperature and annual daily maximum temperature variations in the Himalayas in 1980‒2014

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图 7 1980‒2014年喜马拉雅高海拔山区年降水和年内日最大降水变化时空变化趋势

a.年降水变化；b.年内日最大降水变化；c.年降水变化趋势空间分布，其中黑点代表通过0.05显著性水平检验的栅格；d.年内日最大降水变化趋势空间分布，其中黑点代表通过0.05显著性水平检验的栅格

Fig. 7. Spatial and temporal trends of annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation variation in the Himalayas in 1980‒2014

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图 8 喜马拉雅及周边高海拔山区冰湖溃决空间分布

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of glacial lake outburst in the Himalayas

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图 9 冰湖溃决统计

a.不同区域；b.不同坝体类型

Fig. 9. Statistics of glacial lake outburst

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图 10 Hack剖面及SL/K指数

Fig. 10. Hack profiles and SL/K index

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图 11 冰湖溃决频数贝叶斯分段回归

Fig. 11. Bayesian segmentation regression of the frequency of glacial lake outburst

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图 12 年平均温度贝叶斯分段回归

Fig. 12. Bayesian segmented regression of annual mean temperature

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图 13 200‒2100年年均温时间序列

Fig. 13. Annual mean temperature time series in 200‒2100

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图 14 200‒2100年升温速率

Fig. 14. Warming rate from 200 to 2100

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图 15 升温速率与历史冰湖溃决频次匹配

Fig. 15. Matching the warming rate with the frequency of historical glacial lake outbursts

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表 1 数据资料来源

Table 1. Data sources in this study

数据名称	时间	数据来源	数据格式
冰湖溃决事件	1901‒2020	文献(Hewitt, 1982; 徐道明和冯清华, 1989; Feng, 1991; Zhang, 1992; Kreutzmann, 1994; Iturrizaga, 2005; 程尊兰等, 2009; Chen et al., 2010; Hewitt and Liu, 2010; Komori et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2014; 姚晓军等, 2014; Kropáček et al., 2015; Carrivick and Tweed, 2016; Ikeda et al., 2016; Nie et al., 2018; Steiner et al., 2018; Bhambri et al., 2019; Veh et al., 2019; Yin et al., 2019; Bhambri et al., 2020; Byers et al., 2020; Bazai et al., 2021; Zheng et al., 2021; Shrestha et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2023)	表格
冰川边界	2010‒2017	GLIMS全球冰川数据库(GLIMS-Consortium, 2005)	面状图层
冰湖编目	1990、2015	文献(Zheng et al., 2021)	面状图层
冰川物质平衡变化	2000‒2016	文献(Brun et al., 2017)	30 m$ \times $30 m栅格
高程	2000	STRM	90 m$ \times $90 m栅格
逐日气温、降水	1980‒2014	文献(Yatagai et al., 2012) (http://aphrodite.st.hirosaki-u.ac.jp/download/)	0.25$ °\times $0.25$ ° $栅格
Muti-poxy重建气温	201‒1900	文献(Mann et al., 2008)	表格
CRU TS V4.05器测气温	1901‒2020	https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.05/cruts.2103051243.v4.05/	0.50$ °\times $0.50$ ° $栅格
NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 SSP245情景预测气温	2021‒2100	文献(Thrasher et al., 2022)	0.25$ °\times $0.25$ ° $栅格

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表 2 不同规模分级下1990、2015年喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖数量与面积统计

Table 2. Number and area of glacial lakes in the Himalayas from 1990 to 2015 under different area classifications

冰湖规模（km²）	2015		1990
冰湖规模（km²）	数量	面积	数量	面积
< 0.02	2 978	42.42	2 723	39.07
0.02~0.03	1 394	34.29	1 332	32.50
0.03~0.05	1 364	52.83	1 293	49.85
0.05~0.10	1 241	87.04	1 180	82.75
0.10~0.40	999	374.80	892	158.80
0.40~0.60	95	227.49	91	43.84
0.60~0.80	42	181.25	50	34.54
0.80~1.00	28	25.12	20	17.74
≥1.00	63	140.17	44	102.58

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表 3 新增冰湖与消失冰湖空间位置特征值

Table 3. Spatial characteristic values of newly formed glacial lakes and disappeared glacial lakes

类别	高程分布范围（m）	高程平均值（m）	高程中位数（m）
新增冰湖	4 600~5 700	5 001.57	5 082
消失冰湖	4 600~5 500	4 918.75	4 990

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喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2024.083

作者简介:
邹强（1982-），男，研究员，博士，主要从事山地灾害致灾机理与风险研究.ORCID：0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

通讯作者:
邹强, ORCID: 0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

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Spatio-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Himalayas

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喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2024.083

作者简介: 邹强（1982-），男，研究员，博士，主要从事山地灾害致灾机理与风险研究.ORCID：0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

通讯作者: 邹强, ORCID: 0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

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Spatio-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Himalayas

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出版历程

目录

作者简介:
邹强（1982-），男，研究员，博士，主要从事山地灾害致灾机理与风险研究.ORCID：0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn

通讯作者:
邹强, ORCID: 0000-0003-0029-8532. E-mail：zouqiang@imde.ac.cn