Response of Gross Primary Productivity to Different Types of Drought across Various Spatial and Temporal Scales from 1982 to 2018
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摘要:
为准确估测不同类型的干旱对植被生态系统的影响，基于Mann-Kendall、Pearson相关分析等方法，利用1982-2018年的总初级生产力（GPP）数据集以及不同时间尺度的干旱指数（包括scPDSI、SPEI和SPI），定量评估了我国植被GPP对不同时空尺度干旱类型的响应.结果显示，我国干旱化趋势最显著的区域是内蒙古，区域平均的scPDSI、SPEI和SPI分别以每年0.039、0.026和0.004的速率下降.不同区域的GPP与干旱指数的相关性和滞后效应差异显著.华东和华南地区对农业干旱的响应最为显著，平均滞后时间为4~6个月.内蒙古、西北和西南地区对气象干旱的响应更为剧烈，平均滞后时间为9~11个月.华中和华东地区对气象干旱的响应周期较短，为0~3个月.
Abstract:To describe the evolution characteristics of different types of drought and accurately estimate their impact on ecosystems, based on methods such as Mann-Kendall and Pearson correlation coefficients, using the gross primary productivity (GPP) dataset from 1982 to 2018 and concurrent drought indices at different time scales (including scPDSI, SPEI, and SPI), a quantitative assessment was conducted on the response mechanism of the GPP of vegetation in China to different spatiotemporal scales of drought types. The results show that the most significant trend of drought intensification in China is in Inner Mongolia, with the regional averaged scPDSI, SPEI, and SPI declining at an annual rate of 0.039, 0.026, and 0.004, respectively. Further analysis indicates that there are significant differences in the correlation and lag effects between GPP and monthly drought indices in various regions of China. The response to the agricultural drought index is most pronounced in the East China and South China regions, with an average lag time of 4 to 6 months. In contrast, the Inner Mongolia, Northwest, and Southwest regions have a more intense response to meteorological drought, with an average lag time of 9 to 11 months, while the Central and East China regions have a shorter response cycle to meteorological drought, only 0 to 3 months.
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图 1 中国地理位置及区划划分
本文所有中国地图均基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2020）4619号标准地图制作，地图边界无修改
Fig. 1. Geographical location and regional division of China
图 2 中国1982-2018年夏季平均的GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f)的空间分布
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the JJA averages for GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f) from 1982 to 2018 over China
图 3 中国1982-2018年夏季平均的GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f)变化趋势的空间分布
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the trend in changes for the JJA averages for GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f) from 1982 to 2018 over China
图 4 1982-2018年夏季不同区域平均的GPP在干旱和湿润条件的箱图
Fig. 4. Boxplot of JJA-averaged GPP under drought and wet conditions in different regions from 1982 to 2018
图 5 中国1982-2018年夏季平均的GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f)的变异系数(标准差)的空间分布
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) or standard deviation in changes for the JJA averages for GPP (a), scPDSI (b), SPEI-01 (c), SPEI-12 (d), SPI-01 (e), SPI-12 (f) from 1982 to 2018 over China
图 6 1982-2018年不同区域夏季干旱指数随时间的变化
a.东北；b.华北；c.华东；d.华南；e.华中；f.内蒙古；g.西北；h.西南；i.新疆
Fig. 6. Temporal changes in the summer drought index across various regions from 1982 to 2018
图 7 1982-2018年不同区域scPDSI的时间变化
a.东北；b.华北；c.华东；d.华南；e.华中；f.内蒙古；g.西北；h.西南；i.新疆
Fig. 7. Variation of drought duration in different regions from 1982 to 2018
图 8 1982-2018年不同区域夏季GPP的距平演变
Fig. 8. Evolution of summer GPP anomaly in various regions from 1982 to 2018
图 9 中国1982-2018年GPP分别与scPDSI、SPEI-01和SPI-01的最大相关系数(a、c和e)和滞后月数(b、d和f)
Fig. 9. Maximum correlation coefficient (a, c, e) and lag months (b, d, f) between GPP, scPDSI, SPEI-01, and SPI-01 respectively in China from 1982 to 2018
图 10 1982-2018年不同区域平均的GPP和月度干旱指数(scPDSI、SPEI-01和SPI-01)的(a)最大相关系数和(b)平均滞后月数
Fig. 10. Maximum correlation coefficients (a) and average lag months (b) between the average GPP and the monthly drought indices (scPDSI, SPEI-01, and SPI-01) for different regions from 1982 to 2018
图 11 1982-2018年夏季不同区域平均的GPP和不同时间尺度干旱指数的相关系数
其中***表示通过了90%的置信度检验
Fig. 11. Correlation coefficients between average GPP and drought indices at different time scales in various regions during the summer months from 1982 to 2018
表 1 不同干旱指数的干湿等级划分
Table 1. Classification of wet and dry grades
等级 SPI SPEI 类型 等级 scPDSI 类型 1 ≥2 ≥2 重涝 1 ≥4 极端湿润 2 [1.5, 2) [1.5, 2) 中涝 2 [3, 4) 严重湿润 3 [1, 1.5) [1, 1.5) 轻涝 3 [2, 3) 中等湿润 4 (-1, 1) (-1, 1) 正常 4 [1, 2) 轻微湿润 5 (-1.5, -1) (-1.5, -1) 轻旱 5 (-1, 1) 正常 6 (-2, -1.5) (-2, -1.5) 中旱 6 (-2, -1] 轻微干旱 7 ≤-2 ≤-2 重旱 7 (-3, -2] 中等干旱 8 (-4, -3] 严重干旱 9 ≤-4 极端干旱 
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