Characteristics of Large-Scale Drought and Flood Alternation in Autumn in the Yangtze River Basin and Associated Weather Situation Alternation
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摘要:
秋季旱涝转折对于长江流域水库蓄水、发电、供水等有着显著影响.本文采用综合考虑旱涝转折强度和速度的多尺度标准化旱涝急转指数（MSDFAI），分析了长江流域秋季旱涝转折事件的时空变化特征，并从大气驱动的角度分析转折前后的天气形势转换过程.结果表明：1962-2022年长江流域秋季旱涝/涝旱转折事件高发区多位于金沙江中下游、雅砻江上游、岷江、嘉陵江、乌江、汉江石泉以上、鄱阳湖水系，其中以中度事件频数最多；以20世纪90年代中期为转折点，流域旱涝转折范围在此之前呈现减少趋势，之后转为增加，流域内极端旱涝转折事件强度同样先减弱后增强，涝旱转折事件则与之相反；模态分解显示，秋季第二模态主要表现为长江上游北部和汉江上游的一致性旱涝转折异常，在转折前期，我国南方大部由位势高度负异常控制，长江上游及汉江上游风场和水汽输送呈辐散型异常，垂向由干燥下沉气流控制，不利于降雨发生.在转折后一个月，长江中下游出现位势高度正异常，对应副高加强西伸，北方低压槽南伸，长江上游及汉江上游风场和水汽输送呈辐合型异常，垂向由上升气流控制，有利于强降雨发生，从而导致旱涝转折，涝旱转折则基本与之相反.
Abstract:Autumn drought and flood alternation (DFA) has very serious impacts on water storage in reservoirs, power generation, and water supply in the Yangtze River basin (YRB). This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of autumn DFA in the YRB by using the multi-scale standardized DFAI index (MSDFAI), which comprehensively considers the effects of alternation intensity and speed, and the associated weather situation alternation was analyzed from the perspective of the atmospheric driving. The results show that the high incidence areas of autumn drought to flood alternation events (DTF) from 1962 to 2022 in the YRB are mostly located in the middle and lower Jinsha River, upper Yalong River, Jialing, Min and Wu Rivers, Hanjiang River above the Shiquan station, and the Poyang Lake water network, in which the frequency of moderate events is the highest. The range of DTF in the YRB shows a decreasing trend before the mid-90s, and then turn to an increasing trend. Similarly, the intensity of extreme DTF in local areas weaken before mid-90s, and then increase, while the flood to drought alternation events (FTD) are on the contrary. The mode decomposition shows that the second pattern is mainly characterized by consistent DTF anomalies in the north of the main stream of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the upper reaches of the Han River (key area). Before the alternation, most of southern China is controlled by negative geopotential height anomalies, and the wind field and water vapor transport in the key area are divergent anomalies, and the vertical direction is controlled by the dry subsiding flow, which is unfavorable to the occurrence of rainfall. One month after the alternation, there is a positive anomaly in the geopotential height in the middle and lower YRB, the west Pacific subtropical high is intensified and extends westward and the northern low-pressure trough extends southward. Meanwhile, the wind field and water vapor transport in the key area shows a converging anomaly, and the vertical direction is controlled by updrafts and conduced to heavy rainfall. The above weather situation transition leads to a DTF event, while the FTD event is the opposite.
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Key words:
- Yangtze River basin /
- autumn /
- drought to flood alternation /
- weather situation /
- meteorology /
- climatology
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图 1 长江流域雨量站分布及子流域分区
Fig. 1. Distribution of rainfall stations and sub-basins in the Yangtze River basin
图 2 秋季长江流域不同等级旱涝转折和涝旱转折事件累计频数空间分布
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the cumulative frequency of different levels of drought to flood (DTF) and flood to drought (FTD) in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 3 秋季长江流域旱涝转折和涝旱转折平均强度空间分布
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the average intensity of DTF and FTD in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 4 秋季长江流域旱涝/涝旱转折范围时间演变特征
Fig. 4. Temporal evolution of the range of DFA in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 5 秋季长江流域旱涝/涝旱转折范围年代际演变特征
Fig. 5. Interdecadal evolution of DFA ranges in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 6 秋季长江流域旱涝/涝旱转折区域平均强度时间演变特征
Fig. 6. Temporal evolution of the regional average intensity of DFA in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 7 秋季长江流域旱涝/涝旱事件时间演变特征
Fig. 7. Characteristics of the temporal evolution of DFA events in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 8 秋季长江流域旱涝转折EOF分解模态变化特征
Fig. 8. Characteristics of mode changes in EOF decomposition of DFA in autumn of the Yangtze River basin
图 9 KMSDFAI与位势高度场和风场的超前滞后回归
填色区域表示位势高度回归值，打点区域表示通过90%的信度检验，单位：gpm；箭头表示风场回归值，绿色箭头表示通过90%的信度检验，单位：m/s
Fig. 9. lead and lag regression of KMSDFAI with geopotential height and wind
图 10 KMSDFAI与500 hPa垂直速度（左）和整层水汽输送（右）的超前滞后回归
左侧中填色区域表示500 hPa垂直速度回归值，单位：Pa/s；右侧填色区域表示水汽输送散度回归值，单位：kg·m‒2·s‒1，箭头表示水汽输送通量回归值，单位：kg·m‒1·s‒1；打点区域表示通过95%的显著性检验
Fig. 10. Lead and lag regression of KMSDFAI with 500 hPa vertical velocity (left) and whole-layer water vapor transport (right)
图 11 秋季长江流域旱涝（左）和涝旱（右）转折500 hPa环流场合成分析
填色区域表示位势高度距平，打点区域表示通过90%的信度检验，单位：gpm；箭头表示风场距平，绿色箭头表示通过90%的信度检验，单位：m/s
Fig. 11. Composite 500 hPa geopotential height and horizontal wind of drought-flood (left) and flood-drought (right) in the Yangtze River basin in autumn
表 1 基于MSDFAI指数的旱涝转折等级划分表
Table 1. Classification of DFA based on the MSDFAI index
等级 SPI值 类型 1 MSDFAI≥2.0 极端旱涝转折 2 MSDFAII≥1.5 重度旱涝转折 3 1.0≤MSDFAI < 1.5 中度旱涝转折 4 0.5≤MSDFAI < 1.0 轻度旱涝转折 5 ‒0.5 < MSDFAI < 0.5 非转折 6 ‒1.0 < MSDFAI≤‒0.5 轻度涝旱转折 7 ‒1.5 < MSDFAI≤‒1.0 中度涝旱转折 8 ‒2.0 < MSDFAI≤‒1.5 重度涝旱转折 9 MSDFAI≤‒2.0 极端涝旱转折 
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表 2 秋季旱涝转折异常年份长江上游关键分区降水距平百分率变化（%）
Table 2. Composite precipitation anomaly of DFA in key subregions in autumn of the upper Yangtze River basin (%)
分区 旱涝转折 涝旱转折 7月 8月 9月 10月 7月 8月 9月 10月 嘉陵江 ‒15.5 ‒12.8 53.3 29.1 33.9 24.5 ‒13.2 ‒20.8 汉江上游 ‒8.6 ‒19.3 76.8 34.9 41.3 35.1 ‒32.0 ‒26.6 长江上游 ‒8.4 ‒5.2 21.0 4.5 17.8 7.9 ‒10.0 ‒8.1
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