Convective and Environmental Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Genesis-Rapid Intensification Compound Events in the Western North Pacific
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摘要:
作为业务预报中的主要难点，明晰热带气旋（TC）生成、快速增强（RI）及两者复合事件（RIFG）的成因对于防灾减灾具有重要意义.基于观测资料对西北太平洋RIFG事件和无RI生成事件（NRIG）的对流及环境特征进行了研究.结果表明，RIFG个例相比NRIG个例平均纬度更低，且逆切变左侧的内核降水更强，受到较弱的垂直风切变和背景相对涡度、较高的内核相对涡度、高层辐散、海温、中层相对湿度和海表潜热通量的影响，这些有利的动力、热力条件为RIFG事件的发生提供了基础.进一步对比弱风切变（W-VWS）和中等‒强风切变（MS-VWS）下的RIFG个例发现，MS-VWS个例的降水更强、更不对称，且W-VWS（MS-VWS）个例在逆切变、切变右侧（顺切变、切变左侧）有更为有利的环境热动力条件.
Abstract:As one of the main challenges in operational forecasting, clarifying the mechanisms behind tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, rapid intensification (RI), and their compound events (RIFG) is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on observational data, this study examines the convective and environmental characteristics of RIFG events and non-RI genesis events (NRIG) over the western North Pacific. On average, RIFG cases occur at lower latitudes compared to NRIG cases, and have stronger inner-core precipitation on the upshear left side. These cases are also associated with weaker vertical wind shear and background relative vorticity, higher inner-core relative vorticity, upper-level divergence, sea surface temperature, mid-level relative humidity, and surface latent heat flux. These favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions provide the basis for RIFG events. Further comparison between RIFG cases under weak vertical wind shear (W-VWS) and moderate-strong vertical wind shear (MS-VWS) shows that MS-VWS cases exhibit stronger and more asymmetric precipitation. Additionally, W-VWS (MS-VWS) cases experience more favorable environmental dynamic and thermodynamic conditions on the upshear and right-of-shear sides (downshear and left-of-shear sides), respectively.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone /
- genesis /
- rapid intensification /
- convection /
- meteorology
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图 1 RIFG和NRIG热带气旋个例的合成强度演变曲线（a），RIFG和NRIG事件的生成位置分布（b）
图a中横坐标表示相对于TC生成时刻的小时数；图b中红色和蓝色+符号分别表示两类TC的平均生成位置
Fig. 1. The composite time series of TC intensity for the RIFG and NRIG cases (a), and the genesis locations of the two groups (b)
图 2 RIFG（a）和NRIG（b）热带气旋个例在生成后12 h时段内的平均降水率（单位：mm/h），两类个例的降水率差异（c）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向，图c中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 2. Composite precipitation rates (unit: mm/h) during the 12 h period following TC genesis for RIFG (a) and NRIG (b) cases, and the difference in precipitation rate between RIFG and NRIG cases (c)
图 3 RIFG和NRIG个例在生成后12 h时段内的垂直风切变量级（m/s）和海表面温度（SST，单位：℃）的箱线图
虚线延伸至5%和95%百分位数，箱边界和中线分别代表 25%、75%百分位数和中位数，点代表均值
Fig. 3. Box-whisker plots of the vertical wind shear magnitude (m/s) and sea surface temperature (SST, unit: ℃) of the RIFG and NRIG cases during the 12 h period following TC genesis
图 4 RIFG（a、d）和NRIG（b、e）个例在生成后12 h时段内的（上）850 hPa相对涡度（单位：1×10‒5 s‒1）和（下）200 hPa散度（单位：1×10‒6 s‒1）相对于垂直风切变的分布，两类个例的差值（RIFG-NRIG）（c、f）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向；图c中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 4. Composite shear-relative patterns of (upper) 850 hPa relative vorticity (unit: 1×10‒5 s‒1) and 200 hPa divergence (unit: 1×10‒6 s‒1) in RIFG (a, d), and NRIG (b, e) cases during the 12 h period following TC genesis, and their differences (RIFG-NRIG) (c, f)
图 5 RIFG（a）和NRIG（b）个例在生成后12 h时段内的850 hPa大尺度背景环流场和生成位置
深蓝色和灰色曲线分别表示季风槽和槽线
Fig. 5. Composite 850 hPa large-scale circulation fields (streamlines) during the 12 h period following TC genesis for RIFG (a) and NRIG (b) cases, with the dots denoting the genesis location of TCs
图 6 RIFG（a、d）和NRIG（b、e）个例在生成后12 h时段内的（上）500 hPa相对湿度（单位：%）和（下）海表潜热通量（单位：W/m2）相对于垂直风切变的分布图，两类个例的差值（RIFG-NRIG）（c、f）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向；图c和图f中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 6. Composite shear-relative patterns of (upper) 500 hPa relative humidity (unit: %) and 200 hPa divergence (unit: W/m2) in (a, d) RIFG, and (b, e) NRIG cases during the 12 h period following TC genesis, and their differences (RIFG-NRIG) (c, f)
图 7 W-VWS型（紫）和MS-VWS型（绿）RIFG热带气旋的快速增强起始位置（a），海表温度（SST；单位：℃）的箱线图（b）
图a中绿色和紫色+符号分别表示两类TC的平均生成位置
Fig. 7. TC locations (a) at RI onset for (purple) W-VWS and (green) MS-VWS RIFG cases and the box-whisker plot (b) of SST (unit: ℃)
图 8 （左）W-VWS和（右）MS-VWS型RIFG个例在RI启动前12~24 h时段内（a、b）和RI启动时刻（c、d）的平均降水率（单位：mm/h），两个时段的降水率差异（e、f）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向；图e和f中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 8. Composite precipitation rates (unit: mm/h) during 12‒24 h before RI onset (a, b) and at RI onset (c, d) for (left) W-VWS and (right) MS-VWS cases, and the difference (c) in precipitation rate between W-VWS and MS-VWS cases
图 9 W-VWS（a、d）和MS-VWS（b、e）个例在快速增强启动时刻的（上）850 hPa相对涡度（单位：1×10‒5 s‒1）和（下）200 hPa散度（单位：1×10‒6 s‒1）相对于垂直风切变的分布，两类个例的差值（W-VWS减MS-VWS）（c、f）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向；图e和f中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 9. Composite shear-relative patterns of (upper) 850 hPa relative vorticity (unit: 1×10‒5 s‒1) and 200 hPa divergence (unit: 1×10‒6 s‒1) in W-VWS (a, d), and MS-VWS (b, e) cases at RI onset, and their differences (W-VWS minus MS-VWS) (c, f)
图 10 W-VWS（a、d）和MS-VWS（b、e）个例在快速增强启动时刻的（上）500 hPa相对湿度（单位：%）和（下）海表潜热通量（单位：W/m2）相对于垂直风切变的分布，两类个例的差值（W-VWS减MS-VWS）（c、f）
黑色箭头表示垂直风切变方向；图e和f中斜线表示差异通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 10. Composite shear-relative patterns of (upper) 500-hPa relative humidity (unit: %) and 200-hPa divergence (unit: W/m2) in W-VWS (a, d), and MS-VWS (b, e) cases at RI onse, and their differences (W-VWS minus MS-VWS) (c, f)
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