Impacts of Mid-High Latitude Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere on Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
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摘要:
为研究南半球中高纬度气旋对南极海冰面积的年代际影响，基于1979-2022年每年9月的欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）再分析数据，识别并追踪南半球气旋，探究中高纬度气旋频数与南极海冰面积之间的相关关系，分析气旋经过时下方受影响的南极海冰面积变化的时间和空间特征.研究表明，南半球中高纬度气旋对南极海冰的影响主要集中在南极海冰密集度变动频繁且大多低于80%的边缘区.气旋能够显著影响区域海冰密集度的变化，尤其在海冰边缘线附近，气旋是此处海冰密集度变化的主要影响因素.与气旋对南极海冰的影响相比，南极大部分区域的海冰更易受南半球环状模的影响.然而，在海冰密集度较小的海冰边缘区，气旋对海冰密集度的影响尤为显著.气旋经过影响到的海冰密集度变化依赖于南极海冰的多寡，海冰密集度在达到一定高值后继续增加，会使受气旋影响的海冰密集度增加幅度减小.
Abstract:The long-term effects of mid-high latitude cyclones on Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) were investigated using reanalysis data from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for September, spanning from 1979 to 2022. This study examines the correlation between the frequency of mid-high latitude cyclones and SIE, as well as analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of SIE anomalies caused by cyclones. The results indicate that the mid-high latitude cyclones predominantly influence Antarctic sea ice within the marginal ice zone, where the sea ice concentration (SIC) is less than 80% and exhibits frequent changes across most regions. These findings reveal that SIE is more susceptible to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) than to cyclones in most regions of Antarctica. However, cyclone-induced variations in SIC are significant within the Antarctic marginal ice zone, particularly near the sea ice edges, where cyclones are the primary drivers of SIC fluctuations. The influence of cyclones on SIC variations depends on the initial SIC amount, with variations decreasing as SIC reaches a certain high value.
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Key words:
- Southern Hemisphere /
- mid-high latitude cyclone /
- Antarctica /
- sea ice /
- meteorology
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图 1 2016年9月南半球气旋轨迹
红色点为气旋起点；绿色点为气旋终点
Fig. 1. Southern Hemisphere cyclone tracks in September 2016
图 2 1979-2022年7月至11月各纬度内（分别为40°S、45°S、50°S、55°S、60°S、66.5°S到90°S）气旋频数与南极海冰面积之间的相关性
黑圈表示该相关系数通过了90%显著性检验
Fig. 2. Correlation between the frequency of cyclones and the Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) at various latitudes (40°S, 45°S, 50°S, 55°S, 60°S, 66.5°S to 90°S) during July to November from 1979 to 2022
图 3 1979-2022年中8月（a~c）、9月（d~f）和10月（g~i）的各纬度（55°S~90°S：第一列，60°S~90°S：第二列，66.5°S~90°S：第三列）气旋频数和南极海冰密集度的相关系数空间分布
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the frequency of cyclones and the Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) at various latitudes (55°S-90°S: first column, 60°S-90°S: second column, 66.5°S-90°S: third column) in August (a-c), September (d-f), and October (g-i) from 1979 to 2022
图 4 1979-2022年间9月（a）在60°S~90°S中活动的气旋密度分布总值；（b）南极海冰总面积与10 m风场矢量的空间相关
Fig. 4. Total density distribution of cyclones active in 60°S-90°S(a)and spatial correlation(b)between the total Antarctic SIE and the 10 m wind field vectors in September from 1979 to 2022
图 5 1979-2022年9月SAM指数（右轴，折线）与在60°S~90°S中活动的气旋频数（左轴，柱状）（a）和南极海冰面积（左轴，柱状）（b）的时间序列
Fig. 5. Time series of the SAM index(right axis, line), (a) the frequency of cyclones active in 60°S-90°S(left axis, bars), and(b)the Antarctic SIE(left axis, bars) in September from 1979 to 2022
图 6 1979-2022年间的9月在60°S~90°S中活动的气旋频数和南极海冰密集度异常值之间的相关性空间分布
打点区域通过95% 显著性检验
Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of the correlation between the frequency of cyclones active in 60° S-90° S and SIC anomalies in September from 1979 to 2022
图 7 在2016年9月2日至5日一次气旋经过时的海冰密集度日异常（填色，单位：%）、海平面气压场（等值线，单位：hPa）和风场（灰色矢量）的日均值
紫色星号表示气旋的低压中心；左上角显示了气旋的强度
Fig. 7. Daily mean sea level pressure (contour lines, unit: hPa) and wind vectors (gray vectors) are overlaid on daily anomaly of SIC (shade, unit: %) during the passage of a cyclone from 2 to 5 September 2016
图 8 1979-2022年间9月（a）影响南极海冰密集度发生变化的气旋密度分布总值；（b）受气旋经过影响的南极海冰密集度变化年均值；（c）能影响南极海冰面积发生变化的气旋数量（左轴橙色折线）和气旋影响的南极海冰面积变化（右轴蓝色折线）
图c中蓝色虚线为气旋影响的南极海冰面积变化44年均值（1.30×106 km2）；蓝色实线为海冰面积变化0值，右上角为气旋数量与南极海冰面积变化的相关系数.图a和b中两条黑色实线为1979-2022年9月的最大和最小海冰边界线，黑线之间的区域即为海冰边缘区
Fig. 8. Total density distribution of cyclones causing changes in SIC (a), annual mean of SIC changes caused by cyclones (b), and number of cyclones affecting SIE (left axis, orange line) and SIE anomalies caused by cyclones (right axis, blue line) (c) in September from 1979 to 2022
图 9 1979-2022年9月受气旋经过影响的海冰密集度变化与南极海冰密集度（a）和海冰密集度异常值（b）的相关性
打点区域通过了95%显著性检验.两条黑色实线为1979-2022年9月的最大和最小海冰边缘线，黑线之间的区域即为海冰边缘区
Fig. 9. Correlation between SIC anomalies caused by cyclones and Antarctic SIC (a), and SIC anomalies (b) in September from 1979 to 2022
图 10 1979-2022年南极海冰多冰22年和少冰22年的9月海冰密集度年均差值（a）和受气旋经过影响的海冰密集度变化年均差值（b）（单位：%）
右上角数值为南极海冰面积总变化（单位：106 km2）.两条黑色实线为1979-2022年9月的最大和最小海冰边缘线，黑线之间的区域即为海冰边缘区
Fig. 10. Annual mean SIC difference (a) and annual mean difference of SIC anomalies caused by cyclones (b) between the top 22 and the bottom 22 years of SIE in September from 1979 to 2022 (unit: %)
图 11 1979-2022年南极少冰22年（a）和多冰22年（b）的9月受气旋经过影响的海冰密集度变化年均值（单位：%）
小图右上角数值为南极海冰面积总变化（单位：106 km2）；两条黑色实线为1979-2022年9月的最大和最小海冰边缘线，黑线之间的区域即为海冰边缘区
Fig. 11. Average annual SIC anomalies caused by cyclones during the bottom 22 years (a) and top 22 years (b) of SIE in September from 1979 to 2022 (unit: %)
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