Abstract:
In the southern Tibet Plateau, there are several approximately north-south trending rift systems distributed from west to east. As important tectonic extensional zones within the blocks, these rift systems have developed a series of normal faults and experienced multiple strong earthquakes throughout history. Since the Late Quaternary, this region has exhibited intense tectonic activity with frequent earthquakes causing significant disasters. For instance, the January 7, 2025
Mw7.1 (CENC:
Ms6.9) Tingri earthquake demonstrated the characteristic of "small earthquake with major disaster consequences". To assess the seismogenic potential of normal faults within the rift systems and understand their disaster-inducing capacity, this study divided 92 normal fault zones based on geometric characteristics and statistically analyzed fault trace lengths. Under the assumption of full-length surface rupture along fault traces during earthquakes, combined with empirical relationships between normal fault rupture dimensions and moment magnitude, we estimated the maximum potential magnitudes of normal faults in the rifts. Results indicate that these normal faults have upper seismogenic limits ranging from
Mw6.5 to
Mw7.5, with numerous historical seismic gaps. While generally demonstrating strong seismogenic capacity, they exhibit an eastward-increasing strength pattern. Bounded by major fault zones to the north and south, and considering multiple historical seismic gaps along the southern magethrust (particularly in the context of accelerated Coulomb stress loading following the 2015 Nepal
Mw7.8 earthquake and potential interaction/triggering effects between major boundary faults), the normal faults south of Yarlung Tsangpo River, especially those in the Tingri-Nyalam area and Xiongqu segment, show high potential for future strong earthquakes.