Economic Loss Assessment of Upstream Inundation under Time-Varying Water Levels in Landslide-Dammed Lakes: A Case Study of Tangjiashan Dammed Lake
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摘要:
堰塞坝形成引发的上游回水淹没常导致建筑物等固定资产严重损毁.由于上游水位的动态变化特性，传统损失评估方法存在显著不确定性.为此，提出一种融合淹没深度与持续时间影响的动态水位淹没损失评估方法.以唐家山堰塞坝为例，首先利用时间序列分析与DABA模型模拟水位动态变化过程，进而构建建筑物在不同时序水深条件下的双因素（水深-历时）易损性函数，最终实现经济损失的量化评估.结果表明：海拔高程是决定建筑物受淹时序的关键因素，而地形类型与泄洪速度则主导了损失累积速率及其空间分布格局.平坦低程区（如漩坪乡）在淹没初期（前100 h）损失急剧累积，而斜坡高程区（如禹里镇）则呈现缓慢线性增长趋势.人工开挖泄流槽工程可显著降低斜坡区的总损失（如禹里镇损失减少约40%），但对低洼地区的减灾效果有限.相较于固定水位模型，提出的时变水位模型在地形复杂区域的损失评估精度更高.人工干预泄洪相比自然溃坝模式展现出显著的减灾效益.本研究为堰塞坝上游淹没经济损失的动态评估提供了理论依据与技术路径，并为应急处置工程决策提供了量化支持工具.
Abstract:The upstream backwater inundation triggered by landslide dam formation often leads to severe destruction of fixed assets such as buildings. Due to the dynamic nature of upstream water levels, traditional loss assessment methods exhibit significant uncertainty. To address this, in this paper it proposes a dynamic water level inundation loss assessment method that integrates the impacts of both inundation depth and duration. Taking the Tangjiashan landslide dam as a case study, this research first utilizes time series analysis and the DABA model to simulate the dynamic water level fluctuation process. Subsequently, a dual-factor (water depth-duration) vulnerability function for buildings under varying temporal water depth conditions is constructed. Finally, a quantitative assessment of economic losses is achieved. The results demonstrate that elevation is the key factor determining the inundation sequence of buildings, while terrain type and flood release velocity dominate the loss accumulation rate and its spatial distribution pattern. Specifically, losses accumulate rapidly in flat, low-elevation areas (e.g., Xuanping Township) during the initial inundation phase (first 100 hours), whereas sloping, higher-elevation areas (e.g., Yuli Town) exhibit a slow, linear increase trend. Artificially excavated drainage channels significantly reduce total losses in sloping areas (e.g., approximately 40% reduction in Yuli Town), but their mitigating effect is limited in low-lying areas. Compared to the fixed water level model, the time-varying water level model proposed herein demonstrates superior accuracy in loss assessment within topographically complex regions. Artificially induced flood release shows significant disaster mitigation benefits compared to the natural dam breach mode. This study provides a theoretical foundation and technical pathway for the dynamic assessment of economic losses due to upstream inundation caused by landslide dams, and offers a quantitative decision support tool for emergency response engineering.
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图 1 时变水位上游淹没经济损失计算流程
Fig. 1. Flowchart of economic loss calculation for upstream inundation under time-varying water levels
图 2 堰塞坝库容变化关系
Fig. 2. Relationship of reservoir capacity variation of the landslide dam
图 4 特定淹没深度下持续一定淹没时长的建筑物的相对随时曲面图
Fig. 4. Surface plot of relative loss for buildings under specific inundation depth and duration
图 5 淹没损失沿深度积分计算示意图
Fig. 5. Schematic diagram of inundation loss calculation by depth integration
图 6 洪水消散情况的Tperiod随淹没深度h曲线
Fig. 6. Curve of Tperiod vs. inundation depth h for flood dissipation
图 8 入流量自相关函数和偏相关函数
Fig. 8. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of inflow
图 12 漩坪淹没深度随时间的变化曲线
Fig. 12. Variation curve of inundation depth over time in Xuanping
图 13 禹里淹没深度随时间的变化关系
a. 工况1；b. 工况2
Fig. 13. Variation of inundation depth over time in Yuli
图 16 禹里和漩坪损失随时间的变化关系
a. 工况1；b. 工况2
Fig. 16. Variation of loss over time in Yuli and Xuanping
图 17 固定与时变水位模型损失结果对比
a. 漩坪；b. 禹里
Fig. 17. Comparison of loss results between fixed and time-varying water level models
表 1 堰塞坝计算工况及参数
Table 1. Calculation scenarios and parameters for the landslide dam
工况 工况一 工况二 泄洪措施 自然泄洪 开挖泄流槽 坝体材料 高侵蚀性材料 三层不同风化程度碎裂岩 坝顶高程(m) 752 742 最大库容(108 m3) 3.16 2.47 
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表 2 溃决参数
Table 2. Breach parameters
溃决参数 工况1 工况2 溃口顶宽(m) 353 200 溃口底宽(m) 214 90 溃口深度(m) 82 42 溃决时间(h) 8.9 14 峰值流量(m³/s) 35 100 6 500
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