不同地质条件约束下的油气资源量概率组合加和方法及应用

盛秀杰; 金之钧; 肖晔; 王义刚

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2016.072

Volume 41 Issue 5

May 2016

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Article Navigation > Earth Science > 2016 > 41(5): 853-863

Sheng Xiujie, Jin Zhijun, Xiao Ye, Wang Yigang, 2016. Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains. Earth Science, 41(5): 853-863. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.072

Citation:

Sheng Xiujie, Jin Zhijun, Xiao Ye, Wang Yigang, 2016. Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains. Earth Science, 41(5): 853-863. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.072

Citation:

Sheng Xiujie, Jin Zhijun, Xiao Ye, Wang Yigang, 2016. Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains. Earth Science, 41(5): 853-863. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.072

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Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.072

1.
Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100083, China

Received Date: 2016-02-28
Publish Date: 2016-05-15

Abstract

Abstract

Resources of the zone or the 3rd (or the 4th) tectonic trap are often evaluated by directly and simply cumulating the resources size of its segments weighted by discovery probability in China. Obviously, not all segments certainly have been discovered due to constraints of special geological conditions. In addition, prediction value generally doesn't honestly reflect the practical geological model if quantifying the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and Monte Carlo simulation process is ignored. For the development of PetroV, an improved non-deterministic volumetric method with quantifying kinds of geological constraints is devised in the paper: to sample and composite the undivided segments which should stay in the same combination, then quantify impact caused by the key geological factors in order to objectively delineate volumetric uncertainty. It is confirmed by applications and detailed analysis that "combination probability cumulating" method proposed in this paper could explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scenarios, which leads to more reasonable exploration strategies.
- non-deterministic volumetric method,
- discovery risk dependency,
- resources assessment,
- geological scenarios,
- combination probability cumulating,
- mathematical models,
- petroleum geology.

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References(48)

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Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains

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