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| Citation: | Zhao Haijun, Ma Fengshan, Li Zhiqing, Guo Jie, Zhang Jiaxiang, 2022. Optimization of Parameters and Application of Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Analysis Model Based on Newmark Displacement Model: A Case Study in Ludian Earthquake Area. Earth Science, 47(12): 4401-4416. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.289
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Applying probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation model for seismic landslide hazard zonation is an effective method to handle the uncertainty of seismic source and spatial and temporal uncertainty of seismic-induced landslide evaluation in potential seismic area. Combined with theoretical analysis and actual ground motion parameters of Ludian earthquake and landslide hazards, the uncertainty of earthquake parameters and the geotechnical strength parameters in the proposed Newmark model were optimized and verified. Specifically, the strength attenuation effect of slope rock mass, the topographic amplification effect of seismic acceleration, and the fault zone effect were integrated into the Newmark model to optimize the model parameters. The optimized model shows a better effect of the slope topography and fault zone on the development of earthquake-induced landslide. Meanwhile, the calculation results have a higher agreement with the actual seismic landslide distribution in Ludian earthquake area. In addition, the prediction results show that the probability of seismic landslide will greatly increase in the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault, the Ludian-Zhaotong fault, and the Niulanjiang River valley for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the dynamic response laws of earthquake parameters and geotechnical parameters in the Newmark model, which has great effect to improve the reliability of regional slope stability analysis.
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