融合历史降雨下斜坡稳定性观测信息的可靠度分析

刘贤; 揭鸿鹄; 蒋水华; 黎学优; 黄劲松

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2022.327

Volume 48 Issue 5

May 2023

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Article Navigation > Earth Science > 2023 > 48(5): 1865-1874

Liu Xian, Jie Honghu, Jiang Shuihua, Li Xueyou, Huang Jinsong, 2023. Slope Reliability Analysis Incorporating Observation of Stability Performance under A Past Rainfall Event. Earth Science, 48(5): 1865-1874. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.327

Citation:

Liu Xian, Jie Honghu, Jiang Shuihua, Li Xueyou, Huang Jinsong, 2023. Slope Reliability Analysis Incorporating Observation of Stability Performance under A Past Rainfall Event. Earth Science, 48(5): 1865-1874. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.327

Citation:

Liu Xian, Jie Honghu, Jiang Shuihua, Li Xueyou, Huang Jinsong, 2023. Slope Reliability Analysis Incorporating Observation of Stability Performance under A Past Rainfall Event. Earth Science, 48(5): 1865-1874. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.327

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Slope Reliability Analysis Incorporating Observation of Stability Performance under A Past Rainfall Event

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.327

1.
School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
2.
School of Infrastructure Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China

Received Date: 2022-07-15
Available Online: 2023-06-06
Publish Date: 2023-05-25

Abstract

Abstract

Failure mechanism and reliability analysis of rainfall-induced slopes generally ignore the effects of field observation information, such as the observation that the slope keeps stable in natural conditions or after a historical rainfall event. In this paper, with an infinite slope model as an example, the BUS (Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation) method is adopted for the probabilistic back analysis of spatially variable hydraulic and shear strength parameters based on the field observation that the slope survived from a previous extreme rainfall event. The probabilities of slope failure under different rainfall durations are evaluated within the framework of Monte-Carlo simulation. The influence of ignoring/incorporating the field observation on the estimate of probability of slope failure is also investigated. The results indicate that the possibility of slope failing along the weak zones caused by the spatial variability of soil parameters can be effectively excluded through the probabilistic back analysis incorporating the field observation. Based on this, more realistic probability of slope failure induced by the rainfall can be produced. If the field observation that the slope survived from a previous extreme rainfall event is ignored, the probability of slope failure will be significantly overestimated, especially in the early stage of rainfall. The research outcomes provide a new perspective for interpreting the rainfall-induced slope failure mechanisms in the spatially variable soils.
- slope,
- landslide,
- rainfall infiltration,
- spatial variability,
- probabilistic back analysis,
- reliability analysis,
- hazard geology

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References(38)

References

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Slope Reliability Analysis Incorporating Observation of Stability Performance under A Past Rainfall Event

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