Short-Impending Earthquake Prediction Method Based on High-Order Magnetic Anomaly Derivative and High-Order Statistic

In recent years, moderate-strong earthquakes have brought indelible disasters to the safety of people's lives and properties. Hence, exploring the connection between geomagnetic fields and earthquakes, obtaining precursor information, and then realizing the prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes are vital issues that need to be solved urgently. For now, the vertical component Z of the geomagnetic field has been widely used for moderate-strong earthquake early warning. However, it still has numerous problems such as long prediction periods, difficulty in determining the threshold, and low prediction accuracy. To solve the above problems, a short-impending earthquake prediction method based on high-order magnetic anomaly derivative and high-order statistic, dubbed HMAD-HS, is proposed, which can effectively reduce the influence of Gaussian noise on the precursor geomagnetic field, shorten the prediction period, and then improve the prediction accuracy. To verify the feasibility of this method, taking the moderate-strong earthquakes of Kashgar, Xinjiang in 2017 as an example, the HMAD-HS was compared with two commonly used methods, i.e., load-unload response ratio and geomagnetic daily ratio. The experimental results show that the precursor signals of moderate-strong earthquakes obtained by HMAD-HS are obvious, and the missing report rate and false report rate are reduced by more than 30%, which greatly improves the forecast credibility. Further, the applications of HMAD-HS for the short-term prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in many regions of our country prove that the proposed method is universal and has a good effect on predicting moderate-strong earthquakes.