基于俯冲带动力学参数评估琉球海沟对我国东南沿岸的海啸威胁

李宏伟; 徐志国; 史健宇; 王宗辰; 杨怀玮

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2023.168

Volume 49 Issue 2

Feb. 2024

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Li Hongwei, Xu Zhiguo, Shi Jianyu, Wang Zongchen, Yang Huaiwei, 2024. Tsunami Potential Threat from the Ryukyu Trench on Chinese Coast Based on Subduction Zone Dynamics Parameters. Earth Science, 49(2): 403-413. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.168

Citation:

Li Hongwei, Xu Zhiguo, Shi Jianyu, Wang Zongchen, Yang Huaiwei, 2024. Tsunami Potential Threat from the Ryukyu Trench on Chinese Coast Based on Subduction Zone Dynamics Parameters. Earth Science, 49(2): 403-413. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.168

Citation:

Li Hongwei, Xu Zhiguo, Shi Jianyu, Wang Zongchen, Yang Huaiwei, 2024. Tsunami Potential Threat from the Ryukyu Trench on Chinese Coast Based on Subduction Zone Dynamics Parameters. Earth Science, 49(2): 403-413. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.168

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Tsunami Potential Threat from the Ryukyu Trench on Chinese Coast Based on Subduction Zone Dynamics Parameters

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.168

Li Hongwei^{1, 2
,
,},
Xu Zhiguo^{1, 2},
Shi Jianyu^{1
,
,
,},
Wang Zongchen¹,
Yang Huaiwei¹

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2023-03-05
Publish Date: 2024-02-25

Abstract

Abstract

In order to improve tsunami mitigation capabilities along the coast of China and to increase public awareness of tsunami hazards, this paper systematically analyses the potential threat of tsunamis caused by earthquakes in the Ryukyu Trench subduction zone off the southeast coast of China and the eastern part of Taiwan Province. We quantitatively assess their tsunami hazard based on a probabilistic approach of logic tree and Monte Carlo simulation. Considering the scarcity of historical earthquake records in the Ryukyu Trench, we determined the maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes in the region based on the dynamic parameters of the subduction zone. At the same time, a logical tree of tsunami source parameters was constructed to analyse the uncertainty of the assessment results by integrating previous research results on paleotsunamis in the region. The results show that the maximum tsunami wave amplitude can reach 2-3 m around Yilan and Hualien counties in eastern Taiwan Province in the return period of 2000 years; the maximum tsunami wave amplitude can also reach about 0.6 m and 0.8 m in Shanghai and Zhoushan at the same time. Therefore, although there are almost no catastrophic tsunami events in the historical record of the Ryukyu Trench, its tsunami threat to the southeast coast of China, especially the eastern part of Taiwan, cannot be ignored.
- Ryukyu Trench,
- earthquake,
- tsunami,
- dynamics parameters,
- hazard assessment

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References(35)

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