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| Citation: | YANG Yong-guo, CHEN Yu-hua, 2009. Chaotic Characteristics and Prediction for Water Inrush in Mine. Earth Science, 34(2): 258-262.
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It is difficult to discover the certainty and randomness of the law of the evolution of the underground water system by only using deterministic method or stochastic method, because the evolution of the system is not only deterministic but also stochastic, due to the effect of such factors as hydrologic geology and mine exploitation.Chaos theory combines both deterministic analysis method and stochastic analysis method.The time series of water inrush in mine are the results of the interaction between the factors of the underground water system in mine and contain the information of this dynamical system.Based on the background analysis of hydrologic geology of the second coal mine in Liuqiao, we obtained the Lyapunov index (0.1427) of the time series of water inrush by modeling and analyzing of the chaotic time series.The Lyapunov index shows that the water inrush of the second coal mine in Liuqiao is of chaotic characteristics.By using the established model, the time series of water inrush in mine from April 2004 to February 2005 was verified, and the results indicate that the chaotic time series analysis method is feasible and highly effective in predicting the water inrush in mine.
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