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    Volume 49 Issue 8
    Aug.  2024
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    Article Contents
    Xiao Yang, Shan Bin, Liu Chengli, Zhou Wanli, 2024. Stress Triggering and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the 2022 Lushan MS6.1 Earthquake. Earth Science, 49(8): 2979-2991. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.053
    Citation: Xiao Yang, Shan Bin, Liu Chengli, Zhou Wanli, 2024. Stress Triggering and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the 2022 Lushan MS6.1 Earthquake. Earth Science, 49(8): 2979-2991. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.053

    Stress Triggering and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the 2022 Lushan MS6.1 Earthquake

    doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2023.053
    • Received Date: 2023-01-02
    • Publish Date: 2024-08-25
    • On June 1, 2022, an earthquake of magnitude 6.1 occurred in Lushan, Sichuan, causing 4 deaths, 14 injuries and economic losses in many surrounding counties. This region is characterized by a dense fault system and intense historical earthquakes, as well as a seismic gap that receives much attention, so a retrospective study of major historical earthquake sequences and their impacts on seismic risks in the region is of great significance for seismic hazard mitigations in the future. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and the regional lithosphere layered model, this paper calculates the co-seismic and post-earthquake viscoelastic relaxation effects of the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake on the epicenter of the 2022 earthquake at different depths, and discusses the impacts of historical earthquakes on the occurrence of this earthquake. Moreover, stress accumulation on active faults in the area and surrounding areas in the next ten years is calculated to delineate areas with high seismic risk in the future. The results show that: (1) The Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake resulted in a stress increment of 0.014 MPa at the epicenter of the 2022 Ms6.1 Lushan earthquake, which may have effectively promoted the occurrence of this earthquake, while the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake caused a stress release of 0.174 MPa, which delays the occurrence of the 2022 earthquake. Considering the influence of viscoelastic relaxation after the 2008 and 2013 earthquakes, stress increment of the epicenter is 0.086 MPa, which has already recovered to a higher stress level before its occurrence. (2) The Coulomb stress increment in the middle section of the Dayi seismic gap and the Fubianhe fault zone will further increase in the future, and so doesthe seismic risk.

       

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