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| Citation: | Wu Guo, Ran Hongliu, Zhou Qing, 2022. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis Based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Earth Science, 47(3): 844-855. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.037
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Coseismic displacement poses a serious threat to the safety of cross-fault projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, and a reasonable evaluation of the displacement parameters of active faults has important application value. Because traditional deterministic evaluation methods cannot distinguish the importance of engineering sites and their relative positions on the fault, more and more scholars recommend the use of probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA). However, the principle of PFDHA based on classic probabilistic method is complicated and difficult to implement, which is not conducive to application of the latest results of fault seismic activity research, and it also hinders the popularization and promotion of PFDHA. Compared with the classic probabilistic method, Monte Carlo simulation has the advantages of clear and easy-to-understand logic, easy implementation, and good compatibility and scalability. In this study, a general algorithm for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is realized based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the method is applied to the Luhuo section of the Xianshuihe fault zone. The results show that the results of PFDHA vary significantly with the level of exceeding probability or the relative position of engineering site points on the fault. The displacement parameters obtained by properly considering the uncertainty of the maximum displacement and surface rupture length are more reasonable. When the probability of exceedance is greater than or equal to 2% in 100 years, the results of PFDHA are significantly smaller than that of the deterministic method. However, as the fault activity increases, the result of 1% probability of exceeding in 100 years may be larger than that of the deterministic method. Selecting the corresponding PFDHA evaluation results according to the seismic fortification standards of different types of projects is not only beneficial to the safety of the project, but also helps to reduce the costs of most projects. Compared with the deterministic method, PFDHA has many advantages, and is expected to provide reasonable fault displacement parameters for major projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway.
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