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    浙西梅雨滑坡易发性评价模型对比

    冯杭建 周爱国 俞剑君 唐小明 郑嘉丽 陈秀秀 游省易

    冯杭建, 周爱国, 俞剑君, 唐小明, 郑嘉丽, 陈秀秀, 游省易, 2016. 浙西梅雨滑坡易发性评价模型对比. 地球科学, 41(3): 403-415. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.032
    引用本文: 冯杭建, 周爱国, 俞剑君, 唐小明, 郑嘉丽, 陈秀秀, 游省易, 2016. 浙西梅雨滑坡易发性评价模型对比. 地球科学, 41(3): 403-415. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.032
    Feng Hangjian, Zhou Aiguo, Yu Jianjun, Tang Xiaoming, Zheng Jiali, Chen Xiuxiu, You Shengyi, 2016. A Comparative Study on Plum-Rain-Triggered Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Models in West Zhejiang Province. Earth Science, 41(3): 403-415. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.032
    Citation: Feng Hangjian, Zhou Aiguo, Yu Jianjun, Tang Xiaoming, Zheng Jiali, Chen Xiuxiu, You Shengyi, 2016. A Comparative Study on Plum-Rain-Triggered Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Models in West Zhejiang Province. Earth Science, 41(3): 403-415. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.032

    浙西梅雨滑坡易发性评价模型对比

    doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.032
    基金项目: 

    国土资源部公益性行业科研专项“突发地质灾害应急响应支撑关键技术研究” 201211055

    浙江省公益技术应用研究项目“降雨型滑坡泥石流地质灾害区域风险评估关键技术” 2016C33045

    详细信息
      作者简介:

      冯杭建(1979-),男,高级工程师,博士研究生,主要研究方向为地质灾害预测及风险评价.E-mail: pcerma@foxmail.com

      通讯作者:

      周爱国,E-mail: aiguozhou@cug.edu.cn

    • 中图分类号: P694

    A Comparative Study on Plum-Rain-Triggered Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Models in West Zhejiang Province

    • 摘要: 我国目前滑坡易发性评价研究主要集中在西南地区,对东南部降雨引发特别是梅雨引发的滑坡研究较少.选取浙江省西北部梅雨控制区淳安县为研究区,通过遥感解译结合野外详细调查,共确定滑坡596处,并建立滑坡编录数据库.选取高程、坡向、坡度、曲率、工程岩组、断层、道路、建设用地、植被等9个滑坡影响因子,基于GIS栅格分析方法,采用人工神经网络(ANN)、logistic回归和信息量3种评价模型,分别对32种不同影响因子组合进行滑坡易发性对比评价,得到滑坡易发性指数图.应用评价曲线下面积AUC(area under curve)对评价结果进行检验,ANN、logistic回归和信息量3种模型的正确率分别是93.75%、89.76%和90.06%;采用淳安县2014年梅汛期发生的13处滑坡作为预测样本,3种模型预测率分别是94.75%、94.33%和77.21%.上述分析结果表明:ANN模型优于其他两者.以ANN模型评价结果指数图为基础进行易发性分区,采用滑坡强度指标进行分区结果检验,滑坡强度值由易发性低、较低、中和高依次递增,说明分区结果合理.研究成果可以为浙西降雨型滑坡特别是由梅雨引发滑坡的易发性评价提供参考.

       

    • 图  1  研究区位置及滑坡空间分布

      Fig.  1.  Study area and landslides inventory

      图  2  淳安县滑坡与暴雨事件时间分布

      Fig.  2.  The relationship between the landslides and storm events in Cunan county

      图  3  滑坡易发性评价前馈神经网络结构

      Fig.  3.  Architecture of back-propagation neural network for landslide susceptibility assessment

      图  4  滑坡影响因子栅格图(局部,浪川乡)

      a.高程;b.坡度;c.坡向;d.斜坡曲率;e.工程地质岩组;f.距断层距离;g.距道路距离;h.距建设用地距离;i.植被类型

      Fig.  4.  Raster maps of the landslide controlling factors

      图  5  不同滑坡影响因子组合下3种评价模型易发性评价成功率检验曲线

      横轴代表易发性面积百分比累加,纵轴代表实际滑坡数量百分比累加;a.5个因子AUC最大值-组合5;b.5个因子AUC最小值-信息量和神经网络组合4,logistic回归组合2;c.6个因子AUC最大值-组合16;d.6个因子AUC最小值-组合14;e.7个因子AUC最大值-信息量和神经网络组合25,logistic回归组合26;f.7个因子AUC最小值-组合17;g.8个因子AUC最大值-信息量和神经网络为组合29,logistic回归为组合31;h.8个因子AUC最小值-组合28;i.9个因子AUC-组合32

      Fig.  5.  Success rate curves of landslide susceptibility maps derived from three assessment models with different combinations of controlling factors

      图  6  最大AUC值组合3种评价模型易发性评价成功率检验曲线

      Fig.  6.  Success rate curves of landslide susceptibility maps derived from three assessment models with the maximal AUC value combination of controlling factors

      图  7  不同数量因子组合下3种模型AUC均值对比

      横轴代表因子数量,纵轴代表AUC值

      Fig.  7.  Comparison of mean AUC using three assessment models with different controlling factors versus number of controlling factors

      图  8  淳安千岛湖站2014年6月27日观测小时雨量

      Fig.  8.  Hourly rainfall observed at Qiandao Lake, Cunan on June 27th, 2014

      图  9  3种评价模型易发性评价预测率检验曲线

      检验样本:2014年梅汛期淳安新发生13处灾害点

      Fig.  9.  The prediction rate of the three models using area under curve (AUC)

      图  10  各易发性等级面积和滑坡数量统计

      Fig.  10.  Statistics of various susceptibility levels with corresponding landslide occurrence percentage and intensity

      表  1  滑坡影响因子及其分类标准

      Table  1.   Landslide controlling factors with their categories

      类别编号影响因子分级数量分类标准数据源
      地形A高程(m)91:<100;2:100~200;3:200~300;4:300~400;5:400~500;6:500~600;7:600~700;8:700~800;9:800~900;10:900~1 000;11:1 000~1 100;12:>1 100ASTER GDEM
      B坡度(°)121:<5;2:5~10;3:10~15;4:15~20;5:20~25;6:25~30;7:30~35;8:35~40;9:40~45;10:45~50;11:50~55;12:>55
      C坡向91:Flat;2:N;3:NE;4:E;5:SE;6:S;7:SW;8:W;9:NW根据ASTER GDEM生成
      D斜坡曲率121:<-10;2:-10~-8;3:-8~-6;4:-6~-4;5:-4~-2;6:-2~0;7:0~2;8:2~4;9:4~6;10:6~8;11:8~10;12:>10
      地质E工程地质岩组121:Qg;2:Qd;3:Rr;4:Hi;5:Bs;6:Sc;7:Sf;8:SRc;9:Tc;10:Tcc;11:LT;12:NT1:5万或1:20万区域地质图
      F距断层距离(m)71:0~50;2:50~100;3:100~150;4:150~200;5:200~250;6:250~300;7:>300
      人类活动G距道路距离(m)41:高速公路、国道、省道和县道(0~60 m),康庄公路、乡村道路(0~30 m);2:高速公路、国道、省道和县道(60~120 m),康庄公路、乡村道路(30~60 m);3:高速公路、国道、省道和县道(120~180 m),康庄公路、乡村道路(60~90 m);4:其他区域1:5万地形图
      H距建设用地距离(m)51:0~50;2:50~100;3:100~150;4:150~200;5:>200第2次土地调查数据
      其他I植被类型111:杉柏;2:松;3:阔叶树;4:经济林;5:茶叶;6:竹林;7:灌木林;8:其他林地;9:未成林;10:火烧采伐;11:非林地森林资源调查数据
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  2  不同影响因子组合下3种滑坡易发性评价模型的AUC检验结果

      Table  2.   AUC of landslide susceptibility assessment using three models with different combinations of controlling factors

      因子数组合编号因子列表AUC值(%)
      信息量ANNlogistic回归
      4个组合1坡度、岩组、道路、高程75.8478.8272.67
      5个组合2坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向76.3778.5172.67
      组合3坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率77.0680.7773.31
      组合4坡度、岩组、道路、高程、断层75.2278.4472.83
      组合5坡度、岩组、道路、高程、建设87.1290.0686.87
      组合6坡度、岩组、道路、高程、植被81.8485.4981.11
      6个组合7坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率77.5879.8873.32
      组合8坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、断层75.6979.2772.78
      组合9坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、建设87.5587.5886.37
      组合10坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、植被82.2485.0680.99
      组合11坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、断层76.2480.0473.48
      组合12坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、建设87.4489.1587.01
      组合13坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、植被81.7685.8381.19
      组合14坡度、岩组、道路、高程、断层、建设87.0689.8586.93
      组合15坡度、岩组、道路、高程、断层、植被81.6085.9181.16
      组合16坡度、岩组、道路、高程、建设、植被89.5593.7589.65
      7个组合17坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、断层76.6679.2273.45
      组合18坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、建设88.0889.5486.59
      组合19坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、植被82.7487.2181.09
      组合20坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、断层、建设87.4189.286.44
      组合21坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、断层、植被81.8985.9981.04
      组合22坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、建设、植被89.6492.1689.39
      组合23坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、断层、建设87.5089.1087.04
      组合24坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、断层、植被79.9685.8181.26
      组合25坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、建设、植被89.6492.7289.66
      组合26坡度、岩组、道路、高程、断层、建设、植被89.5891.9989.76
      8个组合27坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、断层、建设87.6788.4886.65
      组合28坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、断层、植被82.1986.5481.16
      组合29坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、建设、植被90.0691.1389.41
      组合30坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、断层、建设、植被89.7990.1089.49
      组合31坡度、岩组、道路、高程、曲率、断层、建设、植被89.6591.0889.74
      9个组合32坡度、岩组、道路、高程、坡向、曲率、断层、建设、植被89.8591.9289.53
      下载: 导出CSV

      表  3  淳安县易发性分区结果检验

      Table  3.   Verification of the landslide susceptibility zoning of Chunan

      分区等级A(Pi)评估样本(596处)检验样本(13处)
      L(Pi)滑坡强度RL(Pi)滑坡强度R
      易发性低39.41.50.040.00.00
      易发性较低33.82.90.080.00.00
      易发性中15.99.90.6215.40.97
      易发性高10.985.77.8784.67.77
      下载: 导出CSV
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