Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains
-
摘要: 目前, 国内普遍使用的“简单加和”或“概率加权加和”方法计算的区带或三(四)级圈闭资源量很大程度上与实际地质情况并不吻合.在PetroV开发过程中, 设计并实现了一种可充分考虑不同地质条件约束的油气资源量计算方法——以不确定性体积法的随机蒙氏模拟为基础, 对最新地质上识别出的、不可切分的含油气聚集单元, 进行符合不同地质模型约束的取样、组合; 在明确了哪些单元才应该同时出现的基础上, 将其他不同地质条件约束有机融合到模拟过程中, 客观描述各个计算单元体积模型的不确定性.从实例计算结果分析可以看出, “概率组合加和”可获取更加符合当前地质模型的不确定性油气资源量计算结果, 显著提升勘探部署项目优选排队的合理性.Abstract: Resources of the zone or the 3rd (or the 4th) tectonic trap are often evaluated by directly and simply cumulating the resources size of its segments weighted by discovery probability in China. Obviously, not all segments certainly have been discovered due to constraints of special geological conditions. In addition, prediction value generally doesn't honestly reflect the practical geological model if quantifying the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and Monte Carlo simulation process is ignored. For the development of PetroV, an improved non-deterministic volumetric method with quantifying kinds of geological constraints is devised in the paper: to sample and composite the undivided segments which should stay in the same combination, then quantify impact caused by the key geological factors in order to objectively delineate volumetric uncertainty. It is confirmed by applications and detailed analysis that "combination probability cumulating" method proposed in this paper could explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scenarios, which leads to more reasonable exploration strategies.
-
图 1 剖分前与剖分后油气聚集单元地质模型示意
a.剖分前定义两个油气聚集单元; b.基于断层与储层条件进一步剖分4个油气聚集单元
Fig. 1. Geological model between original and anatomized units
图 2 不确定性体积法计算参数及结果分布
Fig. 2. ontecarlo simulation process of uncertainty volumetric method
图 3 油气聚集单元的相互依赖性
右图划分为10个格，代表 10个概率刻度，从0.0到1.0，图只标出了实际最大概率值0.3；A与B用以代表三角洲沉积环境下两种不同沉积亚相成因的圈闭，具有部分相同成藏条件又各自有局部成藏条件
Fig. 3. Types of discovery risk dependency between petroleum assessment units
图 4 层间上、下叠置影响示意
a.上部储层变厚或变薄直接决定了下部储层的厚薄；b.油水界面的变化直接决定了上、下两层的有效含油气体积
Fig. 4. Kinds of geological effects caused by stabbed horizons
图 5 断层封闭性对油气充注的影响
a.封闭断层；b.连通断层
Fig. 5. Sealing or leak directly affects HC volume of up and down block
图 6 “完全决定”的地质涵义与不确定性资源量计算结果示意
Fig. 6. Compositions and corresponding resource distribution of "discovery full risk dependency"
图 7 “概率组合加和”算法的自顶到底的分解模式
A、B、C、D为次级圈闭，E和G为三级或四级圈闭
Fig. 7. Top-down composition model of probability combinatory accumulation
图 8 滩Ⅰ断块中生界顶层构造
Fig. 8. The structural sketch of top boundary of Mesozoic in Tan Ⅰ block
图 9 “部分决定时”多个次级圈闭含油气概率树组合概率计算
Fig. 9. Probability tree modified following the "discovery partial dependency" geological constraint
表 1 体积法计算资源量的相关参数
Table 1. Core parameters involved by volumetric method
运算符 体积参数 计算结果 含油气面积 × 总厚度 × 几何因子 岩石总体积 × 净毛比 有效岩石体积 × 孔隙度 孔隙体积 × 含油饱和度 含油气孔隙体积 × 1/体积系数 地质资源量(体积单位) × 采收率 × 转换因子 可采资源量(体积单位) 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 反映影响圈闭的各种地质因素
Table 2. Key geological conditions for one trap
圈闭及封盖 储层发育参数 储层质量参数 溢出点深度 厚度 凝析油产量 圈闭充注 净毛比 气油比 砂地比 NGL Yield 净储层比 采收率 孔隙度 含油气饱和度
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 二个次级圈闭的含油气组合概率计算(完全决定)
Table 3. Calculation demo of discovery full risk dependency between two trap segments
公式 评价因子 A B 含油气概率 P1 圈闭条件 0.8 0.8 P2 储层条件 0.7 0.7 P3 盖层条件 0.8 0.6 P4 烃源岩条件 0.6 0.6 P(S)=P1×P2 边际概率 0.56 0.56 P(X|S)=P3×P4 条件概率 0.48 0.36 P(X)=P(X|S)×P(S) 非条件(后验)概率 0.27 0.20 A和B同时出现=P(S)×P(A|S)×P(B|A)，其中P(B|A)=P(B|S)/P(A|S) 0.20 仅A出现=P(A)-P(B) 0.07 仅B出现=P(B)×(1-P(A|A)) 0.0 A和B都不出现= 1-上述概率和 0.73
下载: 导出CSV
表 4 成藏要素风险概率评价
Table 4. The table of risk assessment of accumulation factors
圈闭名称 次级圈闭 圈闭条件(个性因子) 储层条件(共性因子) 充注条件(共性因子) 保存条件(个性因子) 成功概率滩 1号断块 0.80 0.8 0.85 0.90 0.489 Ⅰ断块山 2号断块 0.80 0.8 0.85 0.85 0.462 3号断块 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.90 0.459 4号断块 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.80 0.408
下载: 导出CSV
表 5 “部分决定时”各圈闭油气发现的可能情况及各自发生的概率
Table 5. Probable trap compositions and their probabilities sampled by "discovery partial dependency" principle
油气发现情况 次级圈闭名称 含油气概率 1号断块 2号断块 3号断块 4号断块 4个均有发现 √ √ √ √ 0.133 √ √ √ 0.094 3个有发现 √ √ √ 0.064 √ √ √ 0.063 √ √ √ 0.051 √ √ 0.049 √ √ 0.045 2个有发现 √ √ 0.040 √ √ 0.031 √ √ 0.023 √ √ 0.022 √ 0.023 仅1个有发现 √ 0.014 √ 0.019 √ 0.014 至少一层含油气的概率 0.685 注:表中√ 表示该圈闭有油气发现.
下载: 导出CSV
-
Casella G., Robert C.P..2004.Monte Carlo Statistical Methods(Second Edition).Springer Science & Business Media New York. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-8687-9_1 Chen Z.H., Osadetz K.G..2006.Undiscovered Petroleum Accumulation Mapping Using Model-Based Stochastic Simulation[J].Mathematical Geology, 38(1):1-16.doi: 10.1007/s11004-005-9000-1 Diao F., Wen Z.G., Zou H.Y., et al.2013.Sedimentary Characteristics of Shallow-Water Deltas in Chang 8 Oil-Bearing Interval in Eastern Gansu Ordos Basin[J].Earth Science, 38(6):1289-1298 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.1007/s11771-015-3027-3 Guo Q.L., Mi S.Y..2004.Petroleum Prospect Assessment & Decision Analysis.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing, 21-22(in Chinese). Houghton J.C., Dolton G.L..1993.U.S.Geological Survey Estimation Procedure for Accumulation Size Distributions by Play[J].AAPG Bulletin, 77(3):454-466.doi: 10.1306/bdff8c4a-1718-11d7-8645000102c1865d Jiang D.P., Dai Y.D., Liu L.H., et al.2014.A Discussion on Fault Conduit Mechanism and Control Factors of Petroleum Lateral Diversion[J].Geoscience, 28(5):1023-1031 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.1007/s12665-015-4670-6 Jin Z.J..1995.A Comparison Study of Five Basic Oil and Gas Pool Size Probability Distribution Models and Its Significance[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica, 16(3):6-13 (in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-SYXB503.001.htm Jin Z.J., Zhang J.C..1999.Petroleum Resources Assessment Techniques.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing, 66-71(in Chinese). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/250087694_Application_of_Exploration_Play-Analysis_Techniques_to_the_Assessment_of_Conventional_Petroleum_Resources_by_the_USGS Jin Z.J., Zhang J.C..2002.Fundamental Principles for Petroleum Resources Assessments[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica, 23(1):19-23(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291156349_Fundamental_principles_for_petroleum_resources_assessments Jin Z.J., Zhang Y.W., Wang J..2003.Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanisms and Oil/Gas Distribution.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing(in Chinese). Lee P.J., Wang P.C..1984.PRIMES:A Petroleum Resources Information Management and Evaluation System[J].Oil and Gas Journal, 82(40):204-206. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/44665/1/9789241548274_eng.pdf Lee P.J..2008.Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources.Oxford University Press Oxford. Lei C., Ye J.R., Wu J.F., et al.2014.Dynamic Process of Hydrocarbon Accumulation in Low-Exploration Basins:A Case Study of Xihu Depression[J].Earth Science, 39(7):837-847 (in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288926001_Pooling_mechanisms_of_evaporating_fractionation_of_oil_and_gas_in_the_Xihu_Depression_East_China_Sea Li S., Li J.T..2012.Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Oversea Opportunity in Oil and Gas Exploration[J].Natural Gas Geoscience, 23(4):807-812(in Chinese with English abstract). http://engineering.cae.cn/fem/EN/volumn/volumn_2968.shtml Liu J., Wang D.M., Liu D.C., et al.2015.Oil and Gas Anomaly Extraction by Combining Hyperspectral Image Data with Multispectral Image Data[J].Earth Science, 40(8):1371-1380(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286147609_Atmospherical_correction_of_Hyperion_hyperspectral_imagery_based_on_empirical_line_calibration_method Liu Z.W., Fang C.L..2004.Key Technology of Petroleum Industry in the 21st Century.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing, 81-82 (in Chinese). http://www.forskningsradet.no/servlet/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=+attachment%3B+filename%3D%22OG21strategi2013%2C0.pdf%22&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1274505749114&ssbinary=true Martinelli G., Eidsvik J., Hauge R., et al.2010.Bayesian Networks for Prospect Analysis in the North Sea[J].The American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 95(8):1423-1442. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274420762_Bayesian_networks_for_prospect_analysis_in_the_North_Sea Meneley R.A., Calverley A.E., Logan K.G., et al.2003.Resource Assessment Methodologies:Current Status and Future Direction[J].AAPG Bulletin, 87(4):535-540.doi: 10.1306/10180202006 Pan J.P., Li Z..2007.Integrated Evaluation Technology of Resources and Targets and Its Implication for Petroleum Exploration[J].China Petroleum Exploration, 12(1):76-80(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.elsevier.com/books/unconventional-petroleum-geology/zou/978-0-12-397162-3 Rose P.R..2001.Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures[J].AAPG Methods in Exploration, 12:178. http://members.aapg.org/eseries/StaticContent/AAPG_files/html/m12toc.html Rose P.R..2002.Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures.Translated by Dou L.R., et al.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing, 6-9 (in Chinese). Schneiderm R.M.O.A.N..1997.A Process for Evaluating Exploration Prospects[J].AAPG Bulletin, 81(7):1087-1109.doi: 10.1306/522b49f1-1727-11d7-8645000102c1865d Sheng X.J., Jin Z.J., Guo Q.T..2014.Discussion on Integrated Resource Evaluation and Software Development[J].Geological Review, 60(1):159-168(in Chinese with English abstract). http://file.scirp.org/Html/11-2170371_77806.htm Sheng X.J., Jin Z.J., Yan Q., et al.2013.Statistical Method Series for the Resource Assessment of Petroleum Accumulation System[J].Oil & Gas Geology, 34(6):827-833, 854(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281673049_Concept_method_and_application_of_geological_risk_dependency_indicating_petroleum_discovery Tao S.Z., Zou C.N., Wang J.H., et al.2011.On the Identification of Connotation Extension, and Type for Some Hydrocarbon Accumulations[J].Natural Gas Geoscience, 22(4):571-575(in Chinese with English abstract). http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-TDKX201104002.htm White D.A..1993.Geologic Risking Guide for Prospects and Plays[J].AAPG Bulletin, 77(12):2048-2061.doi: 10.1306/bdff8fce-1718-11d7-8645000102c1865d Wu S.C..2005.Introduction of Petroleum Resources Assessment.Petroleum Industry Press Beijing(in Chinese). Yang B.L., Ye J.R., Wang Z.S., et al.2014.Hydrocarbon Accumulation Models and Main Controlling Factors in Liaodong Bay Depression[J].Earth Science, 39(10):1507-520(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296806913_Formation_conditions_of_the_lithologic_oil_trap_in_Block_J27_in_the_Liaozhong_depression_Liaodong_Bay_China Zhang L.Y., Li Z., Kong Y.X., et al.2014.Study on Evaluation Method of Petroleum Resources in Mature Exploration Area:Taking Niuzhuang Sag of Bohaiwan Basin as an Example[J].Natural Gas Geoscience, 25(4):477-489 (in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257710238_Detailed_assessment_of_a_single-combination_oil-gas_accumulation_zone_in_a_mature_exploration_basin_China 刁帆, 文志刚, 邹华耀, 等.2013.鄂尔多斯盆地陇东地区长8油层组浅水三角洲沉积特征.地球科学, 38(6):1289-1298. http://www.earth-science.net/WebPage/Article.aspx?id=2794 郭秋麟, 米石云.2004.油气勘探目标评价与决策分析.北京:石油工业出版社, 21-22. 姜大朋, 代一丁, 刘丽华, 等.2014.断层侧向封闭性及对断圈油水关系的控制.现代地质, 28(5):1023-1031. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP201103009.htm 金之钧, 张金川.1999.油气资源评价技术.北京:石油工业出版社, 66-71. 金之钧, 张金川.2002.油气资源评价方法的基本原则.石油学报, 23(1):19-23. doi: 10.7623/syxb200201004 金之钧, 张一伟, 王捷.2003.油气成藏机理与分布规律.北京:石油工业出版社. 金之钧.1995.五种基本油气藏规模概率分布模型比较研究及其意义.石油学报, 16(3):6-13. doi: 10.7623/syxb199503002 雷闯, 叶加仁, 吴景富, 等.2014.低勘探程度盆地成藏动力学过程:以西湖凹陷中部地区为例.地球科学, 39(7):837-847. http://www.earth-science.net/WebPage/Article.aspx?id=2794 李颂, 李俊廷.2012.海外油气勘探项目综合评价方法.天然气地球科学, 23(4):807-812. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201003015.htm 刘佳, 汪大明, 刘德长, 等.2015.协同利用高光谱与多光谱遥感技术提取油气异常信息.地球科学, 40(8):1371-1380. http://www.earth-science.net/WebPage/Article.aspx?id=3132 刘振武, 方朝亮.2004.21世纪石油工业关键技术.北京:石油工业出版社, 81-82. 潘继平, 李志.2007.资源与目标一体化评价技术及其勘探意义.中国石油勘探, 12(1):76-80. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY200701015.htm Rose P.R.2002.油气勘探项目的风险分析与管理.窦立荣,等译.北京:石油工业出版社,6-9. 盛秀杰, 金之钧, 郭勤涛.2014.油气资源评价一体化技术及软件实现的探讨.地质论评, 60(1):159-168. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP201401017.htm 盛秀杰, 金之钧, 鄢琦, 等.2013.成藏体系油气资源评价中的统计方法体系.石油与天然气地质, 34(6):827-833, 854. doi: 10.11743/ogg20130617 陶士振, 邹才能, 王京红, 等.2011.关于一些油气藏概念内涵、外延及属类辨析.天然气地球科学, 22(4):571-575. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDKX201104002.htm 武守诚.2005.石油资源地质评价导论.北京:石油工业出版社. 杨宝林, 叶加仁, 王子嵩, 等.2014.辽东湾断陷油气成藏模式及主控因素.地球科学, 39(10):1507-1520. http://www.earth-science.net/WebPage/Article.aspx?id=2957 张林晔, 李政, 孔样星, 等.2014.成熟探区油气资源评价方法研究——以渤海湾盆地牛庄洼陷为例.天然气地球科学, 25(4):477-489. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDKX201404002.htm -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 5416
- HTML全文浏览量: 2422
- PDF下载量: 26
- 被引次数: 0
