Numerical Simulation on Magnitude 7 or over Earthquakes in Southeast Gansu Province and Its Neighboring Areas
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摘要: 对强震发生后周围断层及未来强震形势的影响研究具有非常重要的意义.青藏高原东北缘强震频发，对该区的历史强震进行研究很有必要.以青藏高原东北缘及邻区为目标建立3D黏弹性有限元模型，依据中国大陆Ⅰ级块体和青藏高原Ⅱ级块体划分及活动断裂分布确定模型块体边界及断裂位置，使用GPS观测资料作为模型边界条件，数值模拟1900年以来7级以上强震发生的动力学过程.计算结果表明：① 青藏高原东北缘及邻区区域水平构造应力场特征大致呈从西向东，从南向北减小分布.② 模拟结果说明强震主要发生在背景场应力和强震引起的等效应力加载的断层上.③ 历史强震序列对1970年以来地震的影响：康定地震加速触发了炉霍地震的发生；康定、炉霍地震对松潘地震无加速触发作用；康定、炉霍、松潘地震对共和地震无加速触发作用；炉霍、松潘、共和地震对汶川地震的影响较小；汶川地震延缓了芦山地震的发生.Abstract: It is very important to study the influence of the strong earthquake on the surrounding fault and its development trend in future. Strong earthquakes occurred frequently in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, thus it is necessary to study the history of strong earthquakes in this region. We construct the 3D viscoelastic finite element model of the northwest margin and its surroundings of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, on the basis of level Ⅰblocks in China continent and level Ⅱ blocks in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and distribution of active faults to determine the model block boundary and fault location in this paper. In addition, the dynamic process of strong earthquakes (Ms≥7.0) since 1900 is simulated using GPS observation data as boundary conditions, The calculation results are as follows. (1) The regional horizontal tectonic stress field in northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau is characterized by gradual decrease from west to east and decrease from south to north as well. (2) The simulation results show that the strong earthquakes are mainly caused by the equivalent stress loaded on the background field and the strong earthquakes. (3) The effects of historical earthquake sequence to the earthquakes since 1970 are also discussed. It is concluded that the Kangding earthquake triggered the occurrence of Luhuo earthquake acceleratedly, while the effect of Kangding earthquake, Luhuo earthquake and Songpan earthquake on Gonghe earthquake is not obvious, meanwhile, the influence of Luhuo earthquake, Songpan earthquake and Gonghe earthquake on the Wenchuan earthquake is little; and the Wenchuan earthquake delayed the occurrence of Lushan earthquake.
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图 1 模型示意
黑色圆点表示震中位置，数字1~12表示表 1中地震发生的顺序，圆点为研究主体区域.青藏高原断裂带名称采用张培震等(2003)，其他区域断裂带名称采用mapsis软件中的“中国断层-邓起东”.KLKL-JL.喀喇昆仑-嘉黎断裂；JSJ.金沙江断裂；MN-YS.玛尼-玉树断裂；XSH.鲜水河断裂；DR.达日断裂；KL-MQ.昆仑-玛沁断裂；XQLBY.西秦岭北缘断裂；AEJ.阿尔金断裂；HY.海原断裂；LPS.六盘山；LT-TC.临潭-宕昌断裂；LX-LJB.礼县-罗家堡断裂；DB-BLJ.迭部-白龙江断裂；CXPDBY.成县盆地北缘断裂；WX.文县断裂；TZ.塔藏断裂；HY1.虎牙断裂；QC-PW.青川-平武断裂；LY.略阳断裂；YH.月河断裂；LMS.龙门山断裂；GX-AX.灌县-安县断裂；BKBJ.板块边界
Fig. 1. Sketch of the model
图 2 模型边界条件及地表水平速度场模拟结果与观测结果对比
Fig. 2. Contrast of the boundary condition of the model and between simulation results of surface horizontal velocity field and observation results
图 4 青藏高原东北缘等效应力变化曲线
a.1号路径；b.2号路径；c.3号路径；d.4号路径
Fig. 4. The equivalent stress curve in the Northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
图 5 模拟地震引起的等效应力变化
a.第1个地震(道孚Ms7.0)；b.第2个地震(海原Ms8.5)；c.第3个地震(炉霍Ms7.3)；d.第4个地震(古浪Ms8.0)；e.第5个地震(叠溪Ms7.5)；f.第6个地震(达日Ms7.7)；g.第7个地震(康定Ms7.5)；h.第8个地震(炉霍Ms7.6)；i.第9个地震(松潘Ms7.2)；j.第10个地震(共和Ms7.0)；k.第11个地震(汶川Ms8.0)；l.第12个地震(芦山Ms7.0)；虚线为0 pa线，●为地震震中，■为下一次地震发生的位置
Fig. 5. The equivalent stress variation caused by earthquakes
图 6 历史地震对1970年后地震的影响
地震次序见表 1；a.1973年炉霍MS7.6地震前震中应力变化；b.1976年松潘MS7.2地震前震中应力变化；c.1990年共和MS7.0地震前震中应力变化；d.2008年汶川MS8.0地震前震中应力变化；e.2013年芦山MS7.0地震前震中应力变化
Fig. 6. Influence on the earthquakes since 1970 from the previous earthquakes
表 1 1900年以来青藏高原东北缘发生的7级以上地震参数
Table 1. Earthquake parameters (Ms≥7.0) in the Northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 1900
序号 时间 地点 震级Ms 破裂长度(km) 水平错动(m) 杨氏模量降低百分比(%) 参数来源 震中 经度(°) 纬度(°) 1 1904-08-30 道孚 101.1 31.0 7.0 27 3.0 16.5 * 2 1920-12-16 海原 104.9 36.7 8.5 237 10.0 65.0 刘百篪等，2008 3 1923-03-24 炉霍 101.0 31.5 7.3 55 3.0 39.0 * 4 1927-05-23 古浪 102.2 37.7 8.0 192 6.3 28.8 * 5 1933-08-25 叠溪 103.4 31.9 7.5 72 4.4 15.0 * 6 1947-03-17 达日 99.5 33.3 7.7 90 5.0 25.0 戴华光等，1996 7 1955-04-14 康定 101.8 30.0 7.5 72 4.4 19.0 * 8 1973-02-06 炉霍 100.7 31.3 7.6 90 3.6 39.3 唐荣昌等，1976 9 1976-08-16 松潘 104.1 32.6 7.2 40 3.5 39.3 * 10 1990-04-26 共和 100.3 36.1 7.0 37 2.7 14.0 王文萍和王庆良，1999 11 2008-05-12 汶川 103.4 31.0 8.0 330 4.9 24.0 徐锡伟等，2008 12 2013-04-20 芦山 103.0 30.3 7.0 27 3.0 16.7 * 注：表中地震三要素来自中国地震台网；部分断层破裂参数直接来自文献，部分(带*)由冉洪流(2011)回归分析得到的公式计算得出；杨氏模量降低百分比是根据地震位错参数在模型中实际计算得出的，具体做法是通过降刚法降低震源所在断层的杨氏模量，经多次尝试使降刚后产生的断层位错与强震发生时产生的位错一致，即算出杨氏模量降低百分比. 
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