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    全球主要流域径流变化趋势分析与定量归因

    任婵月 张艺帆 李正阳 鲍振鑫 王国庆 刘剑宇

    任婵月, 张艺帆, 李正阳, 鲍振鑫, 王国庆, 刘剑宇, 2023. 全球主要流域径流变化趋势分析与定量归因. 地球科学, 48(9): 3518-3525. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.330
    引用本文: 任婵月, 张艺帆, 李正阳, 鲍振鑫, 王国庆, 刘剑宇, 2023. 全球主要流域径流变化趋势分析与定量归因. 地球科学, 48(9): 3518-3525. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.330
    Ren Chanyue, Zhang Yifan, Li Zhengyang, Bao Zhenxin, Wang Guoqing, Liu Jianyu, 2023. Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution of Streamflow Trends over the Global Major River Basins. Earth Science, 48(9): 3518-3525. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.330
    Citation: Ren Chanyue, Zhang Yifan, Li Zhengyang, Bao Zhenxin, Wang Guoqing, Liu Jianyu, 2023. Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution of Streamflow Trends over the Global Major River Basins. Earth Science, 48(9): 3518-3525. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.330

    全球主要流域径流变化趋势分析与定量归因

    doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2022.330
    基金项目: 

    国家自然科学基金项目 42001042

    水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目 U2020nkms01

    大学生创新创业训练计划项目 S202210491094

    详细信息
      作者简介:

      任婵月(2000-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事径流变化模拟与归因研究. ORCID:0000-0003-0969-8882. E-mail:rcy@cug.edu.cn

      通讯作者:

      刘剑宇, E-mail: liujy@cug.edu.cn

    • 中图分类号: P933

    Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution of Streamflow Trends over the Global Major River Basins

    • 摘要: 受水文站数量与空间分布的制约,目前径流变化研究集中于区域或流域尺度,基于实测数据且综合考虑多种因子影响的全球尺度径流变化趋势归因尚待开展.基于此,本文整合多套站点实测径流数据,并提取各站点对应集水区范围的气象和植被数据,构建了当前站点数量最多、空间分布最完整的全球气象水文数据集.采用Mann-Kendall等趋势分析方法,检测了全球4 469个水文站点径流变化趋势;基于随机森林方法,建立全球径流变化趋势归因框架,定量评估了降水、潜在蒸散发、植被叶面积指数、融雪4个驱动因子对全球主要流域径流变化的影响.结果表明,全球径流变化以减少趋势为主,径流显著减少(增加)趋势站点占比28.2%(9.7%).植被变化主导了全球42.2%的水文站点径流变化趋势,高于降水(35.3%)、潜在蒸散发(12.5%)和融雪(10.0%)主导的站点.

       

    • 图  1  水文站点及其对应流域空间分布

      Fig.  1.  Spatial distribution of global hydrological stations and catchments

      图  2  1982‒2014年全球径流变化趋势空间分布

      Fig.  2.  Maps showing global streamflow change during 1982‒2014

      图  3  各驱动因子对径流变化影响量之和与实测径流变化趋势对比

      Fig.  3.  Comparison of simulated (the sum of 4 driving factors' influence) and observed streamflow trend

      图  4  各因子对径流变化贡献率空间分布

      Fig.  4.  Maps showing the contributions of driving factors to streamflow change

      图  5  全球实测径流变化主导因子分布

      Fig.  5.  Maps showing the dominant factor controlling streamflow change

      表  1  1982-2014年各大洲径流变化趋势汇总

      Table  1.   Slope of global streamflow change for each continent during 1982‒2014

      各大洲 增加站点(%) 减少站点(%) 显著增加站点(%) 显著减少站点(%)
      亚洲 31.9 68.1 15.3 29.2
      欧洲 11.2 88.8 1.1 46.9
      非洲 75.9 24.1 28.6 8.3
      北美洲 56.1 43.9 16.1 10.1
      南美洲 23.1 76.9 5.9 40.1
      大洋洲 0 100 0 68.8
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    • 收稿日期:  2022-05-17
    • 网络出版日期:  2023-10-07
    • 刊出日期:  2023-09-25

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