Spatial and Temporal Association between Interannual Fluctuations of Global Sea Level and Anomalies in Terrestrial Water Storage
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摘要: 研究全球平均海平面（GMSL）上升过程中的年际波动有助于深入了解GMSL变化特征.主要分析GMSL在2005—2016年期间经历的两次显著年际波动及其成因，定量分析全球各大洲陆地水储量（TWS）异常的空间分布及其对GMSL年际波动的贡献，并探讨各大洲TWS变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）之间的相关性.结果表明在GMSL年际波动中与海水质量变化相关的重力海平面（BSL）变化贡献占80%，与海水温盐度变化相关的比容海平面变化的贡献约为20%，格陵兰岛和南极洲冰盖消融主要影响BSL的长期变化趋势，各大洲TWS异常变化则主导了BSL的年际变化，其中南美洲贡献最大，其次是北美洲、亚洲和大洋洲，欧洲TWS贡献最小.南美洲TWS异常变化与ENSO关联性最强，相关系数为-0.76，并存在超前7个月相位差，北美洲关联性最弱，超前5个月时相位差时达到最大值-0.25.Abstract: Studying the interannual fluctuations during the rise of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) helps us to gain a deeper understanding of the changes in GMSL. This work mainly studies the two significant interannual fluctuations and their causes experienced by GMSL between 2005 and 2016, quantitatively estimates the spital distribution and contribution of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly to GMSL changes in different global continent and analyzes the correlation between abnormal TWS changes in different continents and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). The results show that in the interannual fluctuations of GMSL, the contribution of gravity sea level (BSL) changes related to oceanic mass changes is 80%, and the contribution of steric sea level changes related to changes in seawater temperature and salinity is about 20%. The melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica mainly affects the long-term trend of BSL. TWS anomaly change in different continents affects the interannual changes of BSL differently, with South America contributing the most, followed by North America, Asia, and Oceania, the TWS contribution from Europe is the smallest. The correlation between TWS anomaly change in South America and ENSO is the strongest, with a correlation coefficient of -0.76 and a phase lead of 7 months. The correlation is the weakest in North America, reaching its maximum value of -0.25 at a phase lead of 5 months.
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图 1 海平面变化(a)及其年际波动(b)
GMSL.全球平均海平面，红色实线；BSL. 重力海平面，黑色实线；GMSSL. 比容海平面，蓝色实线；BSL+GMSSL.重力海平面与比容海平面变化之和，橘色虚线.图b为图a中各时间序列扣除长期趋势后的年际波动
Fig. 1. Sea level changes (a) and interannual changes (b)
图 2 两次BSL年际波动期间全球TWS异常变化的空间分布
已扣除周期性和长期趋势变化
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution in global TWS anomaly during two BSL interannual fluctuations
图 3 不同区域TWS异常变化对BSL变化的影响
图a为BSL变化和全球TWS变化之和（未扣除（黑线）和扣除（蓝线）格陵兰岛和南极洲冰盖消融贡献）；图b为图a去除趋势项，图c为各大洲TWS变化，图d为图c去除趋势项（以等效海平面表示）
Fig. 3. Influence of TWS anomaly variation on BSL variation in different regions
图 4 各大洲TWS异常变化与ENSO指数（SOI）的相关性（标准化的时间序列）
Fig. 4. Correlation between TWS anomaly and ENSO (SOI) in different continents (standardized time series)
表 1 BSL年际波动期间全球不同区域TWS异常变化
Table 1. TWS anomaly in different regions during the BSL interannual fluctuations
时间段区域 2010.03~2011.04 2011.04~2013.02 2013.02~2014.02 2014.02~2016.01 重力海平面(mm) -4.63 6.42 -4.38 8.48 大洲陆地水储量(mm) -4.82 5.08 -4.06 8.95 北美洲 -0.37 2.00 -1.15 -0.66 南美洲 -1.78 1.64 -1.80 4.14 大洋洲 -2.13 1.83 0.23 0.53 亚洲 -0.56 -0.03 -1.89 2.27 非洲 -0.07 -0.26 0.30 2.22 欧洲 0.09 -0.11 0.25 0.46 
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表 2 各大洲陆地水储量异常与ENSO指数（SOI）的相关系数和相位差
Table 2. Correlation coefficients and phase difference be- tween TWS anomaly in different continents and ENSO (SOI)
地区（洲） 相关系数 相位延迟(月) 北美洲 -0.25 -5 南美洲 -0.76 -7 大洋洲 -0.62 -5 亚洲 0.57 -16 非洲 -0.43 -1 欧洲 -0.42 2
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