Rapid Seismic Intensity and Disaster Assessment Based on Dense Seismic Array: A Case of the 2025 Rikaze MS6.8 Earthquake in Xizang
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摘要:
本研究基于密集远场地震台阵对2025年西藏定日6.8级地震的破裂过程进行快速测定，并结合地震破裂过程对地震烈度分布及潜在人员伤亡进行了快速评估.首先采用反投影技术获取震源区能量释放的时空分布特征，揭示震源破裂的动态演化过程；然后结合破裂过程与基于断层最短距离的地震动参数衰减模型，快速计算地震烈度的空间分布，明确灾害影响范围和强度；在此基础上，利用人员伤亡评估模型对地震可能造成的人员伤亡进行初步估算.研究结果表明，基于密集台阵的地震烈度快速评估方法在震后灾情快速评估方面具有较高的可靠性和实际应用价值，可以为政府决策、应急指挥和救援部署提供重要参考.
Abstract:In this study, the rupture process of the 2025 Dingri 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Xizang is rapidly determined based on a dense far-field seismic array, and the seismic intensity distribution and potential casualties are rapidly assessed based on the rupture process. First, the back-projection technique is used to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the energy release in the seismic source area, which reveals the dynamic evolution process of the rupture of the seismic source. Then, combining the rupture process with the ground shaking parameter attenuation model based on the shortest distance from the fault, the spatial distribution of the seismic intensity is quickly calculated, and the scope and intensity of the disaster impact are clarified. Based on this, the casualty assessment model is used to make a preliminary estimation on the casualties that may be caused by the earthquake. The results show that the rapid seismic intensity assessment method based on dense seismic array has high reliability and practical application value in the rapid assessment of post-earthquake disaster, which can provide important reference for government decision-making, emergency command and rescue deployment.
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Key words:
- seismic intensity /
- casualty /
- disaster /
- earthquake emergency response /
- earthquakes
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图 1 定日地震构造背景
a.研究区周围地势和活动断裂分布. 红色实线是活动断裂；黑框代表图b的范围. b.研究区活动断裂和历史地震分布. 黄色五角星是定日6.8级地震震中；红色实线是活动断裂；红色圆圈是定日6.8级地震震中100 km范围内近十年历史地震震中位置.c.定日6.8级地震余震分布.彩色填充圆圈是震后48 h余震分布（Yao et al.，2025）. 活动断裂数据来自地震活动断层探察数据中心（
https://www.activefault-datacenter.cn ）；震中位置和历史地震信息来自中国地震台网（https://news.ceic.ac.cn ）；重定位余震目录来自Yao et al.（2025）；底图审图号：GS（2024）0650号，下同Fig. 1. Tectonic background of the Dingri earthquake
图 2 欧洲地震台阵分布
蓝色三角形表示台站；红色三角形表示参考台站；红色五角星为震中，震中位置来自中国地震台网中心；左上角小图表示地震与台阵的相对距离，虚线圆圈表示30°和60°震中距线
Fig. 2. Distribution of seismic stations in Europe
图 3 破裂空间展布
填充圆圈为能量点；灰色半透明圆圈为震后48 h余震（Yao et al.，2025）；红色五角星为震中，震中位置来自中国地震台网中心
Fig. 3. Rupture space distribution
图 4 基于密集台阵的烈度评估结果
蓝色线为中国地震局发布的通过实地震害调查得到的烈度分布；棕色线为中国地震局现场工作队实地调查发现的地表破裂
Fig. 4. Intensity assessment results based on dense seismic array
图 5 不同烈度区实地震害图（中国地震局现场工作队提供）
Fig. 5. Field seismic damage map in different intensity zones (provided by China Earthquake Administration Field Task Force)
图 6 断层走向和垂直断层走向的剖面
a.沿断层和垂直断层方向对烈度分布进行剖析；b.沿断层走向的剖面；c.垂直断层走向的剖面
Fig. 6. Profile of fault strike and vertical fault strike
图 8 人员死亡分布
a.基于国标方法的人员死亡评估结果；b.基于全球地震死亡率经验模型的人员死亡评估结果
Fig. 8. Distribution of human fatalities
表 1 评估结果与实地调查结果对比（重灾区）
Table 1. Comparison between assessment results and field investigation results (hard-hit areas)
烈度 实地调查结果 结合破裂过程的评估结果 Ⅹ 长所乡、措果乡 Ⅸ 长所乡、曲洛乡、措果乡、尼辖乡、加措乡 长所乡、曲洛乡、措果乡、尼辖乡、加措乡 Ⅷ 曲洛乡、长所乡、措果乡、尼辖乡、加措乡、曲当乡、郭加乡、芒普乡 曲洛乡、长所乡、措果乡、尼辖乡、加措乡、郭加乡、麻布加乡、雄美乡、曲下镇、
江嘎镇、查务乡、拉孜镇
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表 2 农村受伤率和死亡率与烈度的统计关系
Table 2. Statistical relationship between rural injury and mortality rates and intensity
Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅸ Ⅹ 受伤率 $ 0.38\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 3.10\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 27.00\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 210.00\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 2\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }\mathrm{ }100.00\times {10}^{-4} $ 死亡率 $ 0.06\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 0.64\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 6.80\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 74.00\times {10}^{-4} $ $ 740.00\times {10}^{-4} $
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表 3 人员死亡评估结果与实地调查结果对比
Table 3. Comparison between the assessment results of casualties and the results of field investigation
Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅸ Ⅹ 总 实地调查结果 1 1 13 111 / 126 GB/T 30352-2013结果 1 4 11 50 125 191 死亡率模型结果 / / 1 102 109 212
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