Estimation of the Maximum Magnitude of Normal Faults and Seismic Risk in the Southern Tibetan Rift Zones
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摘要:
青藏高原南部自西向东分布有多组近南北向的藏南裂谷系，作为块体内部重要的构造伸展区，发育了一系列的正断层和正断层型强震.自晚第四纪以来，该区域构造活动强烈，地震频繁且诱发的灾害大，例如2025年1月7日定日Mw7.1地震便呈现出“小震大灾”的特征.为了评估裂谷系内正断层的孕震能力以及了解这些正断层的致灾程度，依据断层的几何特征划分了92条正断层，并统计了每条断层的迹线长度.基于地震导致断层沿地表迹线全段破裂的假设，结合全球正断层地震破裂尺度与矩震级的关系经验公式，估算了藏南裂谷系内各正断层潜在的最大震级.研究结果表明，这些正断层的孕震上限介于Mw6.5至Mw7.5.这些正断层普遍具有较强的孕震能力，但也呈现出东强西弱的特征.裂谷系内的正断层带被南北两侧大型断裂带所围限且南侧主边界断裂带和块体内部存在多个历史地震空区，考虑到2015年尼泊尔Mw7.8强震加快了临界断层库仑应力加载过程和边界主断裂带上的强震可能存在联动或触发效应的背景下，该地区雅鲁藏布江以南的正断层，尤其是定日‒聂拉木一带、雄曲断层未来具有较高的强震危险性.
Abstract:In the southern Tibetan rift zones, there are several approximately north-south trending rifts distributed from west to east. As important tectonic extensional zones within the blocks, these rifts have developed a series of normal faults and experienced multiple strong earthquakes. Since the Late Quaternary, this region has exhibited intense tectonic activity with frequent earthquakes causing serious disasters. For instance, the January 7, 2025 Mw7.1 (CENC: Ms6.9) Tingri earthquake demonstrated the characteristics of "small earthquake with major disaster consequences". To assess the seismogenic potential of normal faults within the rift zones and understand their disaster-inducing competence, this study divides 92 normal fault zones based on geometric characteristics and statistically analyzed fault trace lengths. Under the assumption of full-length surface rupture along fault traces during earthquakes, combined with empirical relationships between normal fault rupture length and moment magnitude, we estimated the maximum potential magnitudes of normal faults in the rift zones. Results indicate that these normal faults have upper seismogenic limits ranging from Mw6.5 to Mw7.5, with numerous historical seismic gaps. While generally demonstrating strong seismogenic competence, they exhibit an eastward-increasing strength pattern. Bounded by major fault zones to the north and south, and considering multiple historical seismic gaps along the southern magethrust (particularly in the context of accelerated Coulomb stress loading following the 2015 Nepal Mw7.8 earthquake and potential interaction/triggering effects between major boundary faults), the normal faults south of Yarlung Tsangpo River, especially those in the Tingri-Nyalam and Xiongqu fault, show high potential for future strong earthquakes.
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图 1 青藏高原藏南裂谷系及周边主要活动断层和主要强震分布
喜马拉雅弧形构造带上的白色区域为历史地震空区(Bilham, 2019); 地震数据分别来自《西藏地震史料汇编》、中国地震台网中心(
https://news.ceic.ac.cn )和美国USGS地震数据中心(https://earthquake.usgs.gov ); 橙色椭圆为2015年尼泊尔Mw7.8地震之后加德满都附近地震空区仍存在的破裂空段分布范围, 具备发生震级~M8的可能; 绿色的椭圆为尼泊尔中部比哈地震空区(改自Srivastava et al., 2013)Fig. 1. Map of active faults and seismic distribution within and around the Southern Tibetan Rift Zones
图 2 依据断层破裂长度与地震经验公式计算获得的藏南裂谷系正断层最大矩震级分布
粉色和黄色区域为1411年羊八井和1952年当雄地震的极震区(国家地震局地质研究所, 1992; 左嘉梦等, 2020)
Fig. 2. Distribution of maximum moment magnitudes for normal faults in the Southern Tibetan Rift Zones calculated based on fault rupture lengths and empirical seismic relationships
图 3 2025年1月7日定日地震的主震及余震序列分布(蓝色标注)
Fig. 3. Distribution map of aftershock sequences following the main shock on January 7, 2025 (marked in blue)
图 4 1411年羊八井地震和1952年当雄地震地表破裂范围.烈度线参考西藏自治区科学技术委员会(1982)
Fig. 4. Surface rupture extents of the 1411 Yangbajain earthquake and 1952 Damxung earthquake, with intensity contours referencing Compilation of Historical Earthquake Records in Xizang
图 5 藏南裂谷系正断层全段破裂与矩震级的关系以及重新标定前后的历史地震数据（a）和基于Wells and Coppersmith(1994)经验数据和藏南裂谷系正断层震级的投图（b）
Fig. 5. Relationship between full-segment rupture of normal faults in the southern Tibetan rift zones and moment magnitude, with historical earthquake data before and after recalibration (a) and magnitude scaling plot based on empirical data from Wells and Coppersmith (1994) and normal fault magnitudes in the southern Tibetan rift zones (b)
表 1 藏南裂谷系及周边主要历史强震列表，包括了2015年尼泊尔地震和2025年1月7日定日地震
Table 1. Major historical earthquakes within and around the southern Tibetan rift zones, including the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and the Tingri earthquake on January 7, 2025
地震 时间 参考震中 地表破裂长度(km) 震级 羊八井地震 1411.09.28 29.7°N；90.2°E ~136 M8.1~8.6 当雄地震 1952.08.18 30.63°N；91.52°E 57.7 M7.5 木斯塘地震 1505.06.06 30°N；82°E; ~500~600 M8.2 不丹地震 1714.05.04 27.5°N；89.6°E > 240 M8~8.2 加德满都地震 1833.08.26 28.83°N；78.5°E < 130 M7.7~7.8 西陇高原地震 1897.06.12 25.13°N；90.07°E ~95 M8.1~8.3 坎格拉地震 1905.04.04 32.636°N；76.788°E ~100 M7.8~7.9 比哈地震 1934.01.15 27.55°N；87.09°E > 150 M8.4 察隅地震 1950.08.15 28.363°N；96.445°E 250 M8.7 藏南 1951.11.18 30.98°N；91.49°E 200 M8 尼泊尔地震 2015.04.25 28.147°N；89.708°E ~120~140 Mw7.8 定日地震 2025.01.07 87.45°E，28.50°N ~36.5 Mw7.1(CENC: Ms6.9) 
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表 2 藏南裂谷系各断层几何参数及最大发震能力
Table 2. Summary of fault parameters in the southern Tibetan rift zones
裂谷名称 序号 破裂长度(km) Mw 断层带 走向 运动性质 裂谷名称 序号 破裂长度(km) Mw 断层带 走向 运动性质 错那‒沃卡裂谷 1 86 7.4 错那‒拿日雍措断层 近南北 正断层 聂拉木‒措勤裂谷 47 56 7.2 佩枯措东断层 北北西 正断层 2 50 7.1 邛多江断层 北北东 正断层 48 36 6.9 佩枯措西断层 近南北 正断层 3 71 7.3 沃卡断层 北北东 正断层 49 31 6.8 穆林错东断层 北北东 正断层 亚当‒谷露裂谷 4 46 7.1 帕里断层 北北东 正断层 50 18 6.5 穆林错西断层 北北东 正断层 5 45 7.0 多庆错断层 北北东 正断层 51 21 6.6 松那断层 北北东 正断层 6 30 6.8 冲巴雍错断层 北北东 正断层 52 48 7.0 打加错东断层 北北西 正断层 7 62 7.2 涅如断层 近南北 正断层 53 38 6.9 打加错西断层 北北西 正断层 8 58 7.2 热龙断层 北北东 正断层 54 55 7.2 惩香错东断层 北北西 正断层 9 40 7.0 安岗断层 近南北 正断层 55 26 6.7 惩香错西断层南段 北北西 正断层 10 30 6.8 羊易断层 近南北 正断层 56 18 6.5 惩香错西断层北段 北北西 正断层 11 136 7.5 1411地表破裂 北东 左旋走滑兼具正断 57 60 7.2 杰萨错断层 北北西 正断层 12 57.7 7.2 1952年地表破裂 近南北 正断层 58 28 6.8 达瓦错断层西段 近南北 正断层 申扎‒定结裂谷 13 25 6.7 弄曲断层 北北东 正断层 59 28 6.8 达瓦错断层中段 近南北 正断层 14 60 7.2 登么错断层 近南北 正断层 60 29 6.8 达瓦错断层东段 近南北 正断层 15 41 7.0 郭加东断层南段 北北东 正断层 仲巴‒塔若错裂谷 61 61 7.2 布多断层东段 北西 正断层 16 75 7.3 郭加东断层北段 近南北 正断层 62 103 7.5 布多断层西段 北西 正断层 17 33 6.9 郭加西断层 近南北 正断层 63 49 7.1 布多断层北段 北西 正断层 18 60 7.2 定结断层 北北东 正断层 64 20 6.6 麦穷错断层西段 近南北 正断层 19 50 7.1 尼色断层 北北东 正断层 65 20 6.6 麦穷错断层北段 近南北 正断层 20 25 6.7 麻布加断层 北北东 正断层 66 26 6.7 塔若错西段 北西 正断层 21 21 6.6 通门乡断层 近南北 正断层 67 49 7.1 薄莫断层 北北西 正断层 22 28 6.8 错查断层 近南北 正断层 68 36 6.9 森里错断层 北北西 正断层 23 45 7.0 查布‒南木切断层 近南北 正断层 69 30 6.8 雄曲断层东段 近南北 正断层 24 57 7.2 青都东断层 近南北 正断层 70 98 7.5 雄曲断层西段 近南北 正断层 25 32 6.9 青都西断层 北北东 正断层 江曲藏布‒改则裂谷 71 20 6.6 江曲藏布断层 近南北 正断层 26 33 6.9 查藏错东断层 北北东 正断层 72 40 7.0 错惹则断层 近南北 正断层 27 29 6.8 越恰错东断层 北北东 正断层 73 23 6.7 泻浪藏布西断层 近南北 正断层 28 40 7.1 查藏错西断层 北北东 正断层 74 24 6.7 泻浪藏布东断层 近南北 正断层 29 56 7.0 越恰错西断层 北北东 正断层 75 34 6.9 噶昌断层 近南北 正断层 岗嘎‒当惹雍错裂谷 30 50 7.1 帮色曲断层 近南北 正断层 76 27 6.7 帕龙错西缘断层南段 近南北 正断层 31 26 6.7 克玛乡断层 北北东 正断层 77 24 6.7 雅曲藏布断层东段 近南北 正断层 32 56 7.2 苦塘嘎东断层 近南北 正断层 78 35 6.9 措日布者断层 近南北 正断层 33 61 7.2 苦塘嘎西断层 近南北 正断层 79 40 7.0 供阿藏布断层 近南北 正断层 34 32 6.9 曲珍错断层 近南北 正断层 80 71 7.3 仁多正断层 近南北 正断层 35 34 6.9 阿木错东断层 近南北 正断层 81 35 6.9 帕龙错西缘断层北段 近南北 正断层 36 20 6.6 阿木错西断层 近南北 正断层 82 68 7.3 隆格尔雪山断层西支断层 近南北 正断层 37 26 6.7 阿木错北断层 北东 正断层 83 55 7.2 隆格尔雪山正断层东段 近南北 正断层 38 37 6.9 许如错东断层 近南北 正断层 84 34 6.9 克勤村西山麓断层 近南北 正断层 39 23 6.7 查孜乡西断层 近南北 正断层 85 51 7.1 扎龙藏布断层 近南北 正断层 40 57 7.2 许如错西断层 近南北 正断层 86 35 6.9 康玛村山前断层 近南北 正断层 41 81 7.4 当惹雍错东支南断层 近南北 正断层 热布杰错‒文布当桑裂谷 87 70 7.3 阿果错断层 北西 正断层 42 58 7.2 当惹雍错东支北断层 近南北 正断层 88 51 7.1 茶里错北断层 近南北 正断层 43 45 7.0 当惹雍错西支南断层 北北东 正断层 89 79 7.3 茶里错西断层 近南北 正断层 44 41 7.0 当惹雍错西支北断层 北北东 正断层 90 80 7.4 茶里错东断层 近南北 正断层 45 21 6.6 当穹错东断层 北东 正断层 91 39 7.0 热西断层 近南北 正断层 46 55 7.2 当穹错西断层 北北东 正断层 92 23 6.7 茶里错北断层 北西 正断层 93 28 6.8 洞古错断层 北北东 正断层
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