西藏定日6.8级地震破裂特征及序列强余震预测

赵小艳; 贺素歌; 孔令嵩; 张天宇; 彭关灵; 王光明; 苏有锦

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2025.059

西藏定日6.8级地震破裂特征及序列强余震预测

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2025.059

赵小艳^1,,
贺素歌^1, , ,,
孔令嵩¹,
张天宇¹,
彭关灵^{1, 2},
王光明¹,
苏有锦¹

1.
云南省地震局, 云南昆明 6502242
2.
中国科技大学, 安徽合肥 230051

基金项目:

云南省地震科技创新团队项目 CXTD202412

详细信息

作者简介:
赵小艳（1982-），女，高级工程师，主要从事地震震后趋势和地震活动研究. E-mail：zhaoxiaoyan@seis.ac.cn

通讯作者:
贺素歌, ORCID: 0009-0002-9168-7516. E-mail: h_suge@126.com

中图分类号: P65
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-03-08
- 刊出日期: 2025-05-25

Rupture Characteristics of the Dingri M_S6.8 Earthquake in Xizang and Prediction of Strong Aftershocks in the Sequence

1.
Yunnan Earthquake Administration, Kunming 650224, China
2.
University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230051, China

摘要

摘要:
2025年1月7日西藏定日6.8级地震序列余震空间分布广且复杂、最大余震震级偏小，且区域可类比历史震例资料缺失，给强余震预测带来挑战.利用西藏区域地震台网震相报告，采用双差定位方法，对定日6.8级地震序列进行了重新定位.结果显示，序列余震区长轴呈NS走向展布，长度约80 km，实际破裂长度大于经验估算破裂长度，且序列分段特征明显，南北端密集，中间稀疏.定日序列M_L4.5以上余震空间分布复杂，M_L4.5以上余震分布受不均匀主震滑动、局部应力条件、断层几何结构、构造背景和历史地震破裂等复杂因素共同影响和控制.序列最大余震为M_S5.0，与主震震级差为1.8，存在“破裂长度越大、主震与最大余震震级差越大”的经验关系.
- 定日6.8级地震 /
- M_L4.5以上余震预测 /
- 登么错断裂 /
- 地震精定位 /
- 地震 /
- 灾害
Abstract:
The M_S6.8 Dingri earthquake in Xizang on January 7, 2025, exhibited a spatially extensive and complex aftershock sequence, with a relatively small maximum aftershock magnitude. Additionally, the lack of comparable historical earthquake data in the region posed significant challenges for strong aftershock prediction. This study utilizes phase reports from the regional seismic network in Xizang and applies the double-difference relocation method to precisely relocate the Dingri M_S6.8 earthquake sequence. The results reveal that the aftershock zone extends along a north-south (NS) trend, spanning approximately 80 km in length, with the actual rupture length exceeding empirical estimates. The sequence displays distinct segmentation characteristics, with dense clusters at the northern and southern ends and sparse activity in the central section. The spatial distribution of aftershocks with magnitudes M_L≥4.5 is highly complex, influenced and controlled by multiple factors, including heterogeneous coseismic slip, local stress conditions, fault geometry, tectonic setting, and historical seismic rupture patterns. The largest aftershock recorded was M_S5.0, yielding a magnitude difference of 1.8 from the mainshock. This observation supports the empirical relationship that "larger rupture lengths correlate with greater magnitude differences between the mainshock and its largest aftershock."
- Dingri M_S6.8 earthquake /
- M_L≥4.5 aftershocks prediction /
- Dengmocuo fault /
- hypocenter relocation /
- earthquakes /
- hazards

HTML全文

图 1 定日M_S6.8地震序列M_L≥3.0地震M-t(a)和日频次N-t图(b)

横坐标为地震日期距离2025年1月7日的时间间隔，单位为d

Fig. 1. M-t (a) and daily frequency N-t diagram (b) for the M_L≥3.0 events of the Dingri M_S6.8 earthquake sequence

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 区域构造、历史强震及台站分布（1900—2025，M_S≥6.0）

Fig. 2. Regional tectonic settings and historical strong earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 from 1900 to 2025

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 精定位后的序列震中分布（a）及密度分布（b）

图a中蓝色虚线为辅助线，表示图 4中深度剖面的位置，其中AA^*代表平行地震序列长轴的剖面位置，BB^*、CC^*、DD^*、EE^*、FF^*、、GG^*分别为不同段落剖面位置

Fig. 3. Map of epicentral distribution (a) and epicentral density (b)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 定日地震序列不同方向的深度剖面

剖面位置见图 3，图中的紫红色虚线为推测的发震断层及产状

Fig. 4. Depth profiles of Dingri earthquake sequence in different orientations

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2025年定日M_S 6.8地震序列的时空演化模式

不同颜色代表强余震活动水平，其中浅红色表示强余震时空丛集释放，浅橙色表示余震时空丛集释放，灰色区域为地震平静的时空域

Fig. 5. The spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the 2025 Dingri M_S 6.8 earthquake sequence

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 地震破裂长度、震级差、震源错断类型

Table 1. Earthquake rupture length, magnitude differences, and focal mechanism types

编号	主震信息	破裂长度（km）	经验估算破裂长度（km）	∆M	震源错断类型
1	2001昆仑山口西8.1	383	154~214	2.4	走滑型
2	2008四川汶川8.0	300	143~191	1.6	逆冲型
3	2015尼泊尔8.1	200	154~214	0.8	逆冲兼走滑
4	2017西藏米林6.9	30	48~59	1.9	逆冲型
5	2020西藏尼玛6.6	25	33~47	1.2	正断型
6	2021青海玛多7.4	170	83~94	2.3	走滑型
7	2025西藏定日6.8	80	42~55	1.8	正断型
注：红色表示破裂长度偏长.破裂长度根据余震空间分布估算得到，经验估算破裂长度分别根据以下公示：$ \mathrm{l}\mathrm{g}L=0.5{M}_{0}-1.8 $（Utsu，1961）；$ \mathrm{l}\mathrm{g}L=0.51{M}_{0}-1.78 $（吴开统等，1990）；$ \mathrm{l}\mathrm{g}L=0.347{M}_{0}-0.622 $（蒋海昆等，2015）.

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