The Stress Triggering of the 2025 Dingri, Xizang, China MW6.8 Earthquake by the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 Earthquakes
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摘要:
本研究主要基于2015年尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级地震的破裂模型及分层粘弹性地壳速度模型，分析和讨论了这两次地震对2025年定日6.8级地震及其发震断层的应力触发，研究结果表明：（1）2015年尼泊尔7.8级地震在定日地震震源位置产生库仑应力变化为0.003 9 MPa，改变显著大于固体潮产生的应力调制作用，说明其对定日地震的发生起到了促进作用.2015年尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级两次7.0级以上地震在定日地震震源位置产生的库仑应力变化为0.010 4 MPa，已经超过地震应力触发的阈值0.01 MPa，这表明两次地震的联合作用显著地促进了此次定日地震的发生.（2）两次7级以上地震在定日地震发震时，在其发震断层面上库仑应力变化均为正，且平均库仑应力变化为8 837 Pa，尤其是定日地震震源处的库仑应力变化大于0.01 MPa的应力触发阈值，这表明两次地震有效提升了定日地震发震断层面上的应力水平，对定日地震震源位置有显著的触发作用.（3）综合考虑2015年两次7级以上地震，以及2015年和2020年两次定日5.9级地震，得到2015年定日地震对此次定日地震有抑制作用，2020年定日5.9级地震对此次定日地震有促进作用，这四次地震共同产生的库仑应力变化为0.01 MPa，对2025年定日地震起到触发的作用.本研究结果为了解尼泊尔地震对西藏定日地震所在断层的地震危险性分析提供了基础资料和数据，对印度板块和欧亚板块交界的地震活动性和青藏高原构造演化具有一定意义.
Abstract:The stress triggering of the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes on the 2025 Dingri MW6.8 earthquake and its seismogenic fault are analyzed and discussed in this study, based on the rupture models of the two Nepal earthquakes and a layered viscoelastic crustal velocity model. The results show follows: (1) The 2015 Nepal MW7.8 earthquake caused a Coulomb stress change of 0.003 9 MPa at the source location of the Dingri earthquake, which was significantly greater than the stress modulation caused by solid tides, indicating that it played a promoting role in the occurrence of the Dingri earthquake. The combined Coulomb stress changes from the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes at the source location of the Dingri earthquake amounted to 0.010 4 MPa, exceeding the seismic stress triggering threshold of 0.01 MPa, suggesting that the joint effect of the two earthquakes significantly promoted the occurrence of the Dingri earthquake. (2) During the Dingri earthquake, both the MW7+ earthquakes caused positive Coulomb stress changes on its seismogenic fault plane, with an average Coulomb stress change of 8 837 Pa. Especially at the source of the Dingri earthquake, the Coulomb stress change exceeded the stress triggering threshold of 0.01 MPa, indicating that the two earthquakes effectively increased the stress level on the seismogenic fault plane of the Dingri earthquake, having a significant triggering effect on the source location of the Dingri earthquake. (3) Considering the two MW7+ earthquakes in 2015, along with the two MS5.9 earthquakes in Dingri in 2015 and 2020, it was found that the 2015 Dingri earthquake had a suppressing effect on the Dingri earthquake, while the 2020 MS5.9 Dingri earthquake had a promoting effect. The combined Coulomb stress changes from these four earthquakes amounted to 0.01 MPa, which triggered the Dingri earthquake. The results of this study provide basic data and information for understanding the seismic hazard analysis of the fault where the Dingri earthquake occurred, with significance for the seismic activity at the boundary of the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate, as well as the tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau.
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Key words:
- Nepal /
- Dingri, Xizang, China /
- earthquake /
- rupture model /
- Coulomb stress change /
- stress triggering /
- tectonics
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图 1 研究区域概况
黑线为断层，震源机制采用下半球施密特投影的海滩球表示，带有颜色的卦限为压缩区，黑色圆圈为城市，左上角图a中红色区域放大后为图b
Fig. 1. Map of the study area
图 2 2015年尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级地震破裂模型滑动量分布
图a为尼泊尔7.8级地震破裂模型的滑动量分布，图b为尼泊尔7.2级地震破裂模型的滑动量分布，单位是m
Fig. 2. Slip distribution of the rupture model for the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes
图 3 2015年尼泊尔7.8级地震产生的同震及震后库仑应力分布
Fig. 3. Distribution of the coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 earthquake
图 4 尼泊尔7.8级地震在定日6.8级地震震源处产生的库仑应力变化
Fig. 4. Coulomb stress changes caused by the Nepal MW7.8 earthquake at the source location of the Dingri MW6.8 earthquake
图 5 2015年尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级地震产生的同震及震后库仑应力分布
Fig. 5. Distribution of the coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes
图 6 尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级地震在2025年定日6.8级地震震源处产生的库仑应力变化
Fig. 6. Coulomb stress changes at the source location of the 2025 Dingri MW6.8 earthquake caused by the Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes
图 7 尼泊尔两次地震在定日地震发震断层面上的库仑应力分布
黄色五角星为西藏定日6.8级地震在断层面上的位置；a，b，c分别表示两次地震产生的同震、震后5年和震后约9.7年时断层面上的库仑应力分布
Fig. 7. Distribution of Coulomb stress on the seismogenic fault plane of the Dingri earthquake caused by the two Nepal earthquakes
图 8 四次地震在定日6.8级地震震源位置基于不同粘滞系数时的库仑应力变化
Fig. 8. Coulomb stress changes at the hypocenter of the Dingri MW6.8 earthquake for four seismic events under varying viscosity coefficients
图 9 2015年尼泊尔7.8级和7.2级地震产生的同震及震后库仑应力分布
尼泊尔7.8级地震的破裂模型取自Yagi and Okuwaki（2015），7.2级地震的破裂模型取自USGS，接收断层参数的走向、倾角和滑动角分别为：184.37°、47.67°和-78.10°
Fig. 9. Distribution of the coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the 2015 Nepal MW7.8 and MW7.2 earthquakes
表 1 岩石圈分层速度模型
Table 1. Lithospheric layered velocity model
序号 深度(km) P波速度(km·s‒1) S波速度(km·s‒1) 密度(kg·m‒3) 粘滞系数(Pa·s) 1 0~34.49 6.00 3.52 2 720 0 2 34.49~51.14 6.30 3.68 2 780 $ 1\times {10}^{20} $ 3 51.14~69.18 6.60 3.82 2 850 $ 1\times {10}^{20} $ 4 > 69.18 8.36 4.63 3 420 1$ \times {10}^{20} $ 
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