Landslide Hazard Assessment in Alpine Gorge Region Based on Slope Units and SBAS-InSAR Surface Deformation Velocity: A Case Study of Diwu Township Section in Upper Reaches of Jinsha River
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摘要:
青藏高原东缘金沙江上游高山峡谷区构造活动活跃，滑坡灾害频发，现有滑坡危险性评价模型预测精度较低，难以满足实际防灾减灾工作的准确性等需求.以金沙江上游地巫乡段为研究区，基于遥感解译和野外地质调查，结合区域滑坡发育特征，通过改进水文分析法划分基于流域-地貌-斜坡结构的斜坡单元，选取地形地貌（地面高程、地形坡度、地形坡向和地形起伏度）、地层岩性、活动断裂、降雨量、水系、人类工程活动、植被覆盖和SBAS-InSAR地表形变速率等13个影响因子，采用随机森林-连续频率比（RF-OFR）模型开展了区域滑坡危险性评价研究.结果表明：斜坡单元的评价精度（AUC=0.902）显著高于栅格单元（AUC=0.858），划分出的高危险区与滑坡灾害分布高度一致；在斜坡单元下，升降轨联合地表形变速率结果的评价精度更高（AUC=0.902），相比未结合、结合升轨形变速率、降轨形变速率的评价结果精度分别提升6%、5%和0.6%，对隐蔽性蠕滑滑坡的识别能力显著增强.研究成果可为高山峡谷区滑坡危险性评价提供更为科学的技术支撑，为区域地质灾害防治和风险管控提供参考依据.
Abstract:The upper reaches of the Jinsha River, located on the eastern margin of Tibet Plateau, is characterized by intense tectonic activity and frequent landslide disasters in alpine gorge region. However, current landslide hazard assessment models demonstrate limited predictive accuracy, failing to meet the precision requirements for practical disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. This study focuses on the Diwu Township Section in the upper reaches of Jinsha River. Through the integration of remote sensing interpretation and field geological surveys, and based on the regional characteristics of landslide development, it refined the hydrological analysis method to delineate slope units guided by a watershed–geomorphology–slope structure framework. Thirteen evaluation factors were selected, including topographic and geomorphological indicators (elevation, slope, aspect, and terrain relief), lithology, active faults, rainfall, hydrographic network, anthropogenic engineering activities, vegetation coverage, and SBAS-InSAR surface deformation velocity. A novel random forest-continuous frequency ratio (RF-OFR) model was employed to conduct regional landslide hazard assessment. Results demonstrate that slope unit-based evaluation achieves significantly higher accuracy (AUC=0.902) compared to grid unit analysis (AUC=0.858), with delineated high-risk zones showing strong spatial correspondence with documented landslide occurrences. Moreover, within the slope unit framework, the combined ascending and descending SBAS-InSAR deformation results yielded the highest predictive accuracy (AUC=0.902), representing improvements of 6%, 5%, and 0.6% over models using no deformation input, ascending-only, and descending-only data, while significantly improving detection capability for hidden creeping landslides. These findings provide enhanced scientific support for landslide hazard assessment in alpine gorge region and offer valuable references for regional geohazard prevention and risk management strategies.
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图 1 金沙江断裂带分布与地巫乡段地质构造与地层岩性
a.金沙江断裂带分布图；b.地巫乡段地质构造与地层岩性图；c.贡伙村滑坡（镜向ES）；d.中心绒滑坡（镜向SW）
Fig. 1. Distribution of Jinsha River fault zone and geological structure of Diwu Township Section
图 2 基于不同方法的斜坡单元划分结果
a.基于地貌划分斜坡单元；b.基于流域-地貌-斜坡结构划分斜坡单元；c.贡伙村滑坡基于地貌划分的斜坡单元；d.贡伙村滑坡基于流域-地貌-斜坡结构划分的斜坡单元
Fig. 2. Results of slope unit delineation based on different methods
图 3 优化连续频率比原理图（据Li et al., 2017修订）
Fig. 3. Continuous frequency ratio method schematic diagram
图 4 地巫乡段滑坡危险性评价流程
Fig. 4. Flowchart of landslide hazard assessment in Diwu Township Section
图 5 地巫乡段滑坡危险性评价影响因子统计
a.高程；b.坡度；c.坡向；d.距河流距离；e.年均降雨量；f.距道路距离
Fig. 5. Statistical charts of influencing factors of landslide hazard assessment in Diwu Township Section
图 6 基于不同数据源的地巫乡段滑坡危险性评价分区
a.基于斜坡单元的滑坡危险性评价结果；b.基于斜坡单元和升轨形变速率的滑坡危险性评价结果；c.基于斜坡单元与降轨形变速率的滑坡危险性评价结果；d.基于斜坡单元与升降轨形变速率的滑坡危险性评价结果
Fig. 6. Landslide hazard assessment zoning in Diwu Township Section based on different data sources
图 7 基于不同评价单元的ROC精度验证结果
a.基于栅格单元的地巫乡段滑坡危险性评价精度；b.基于斜坡单元的地巫乡段滑坡危险性评价精度
Fig. 7. ROC accuracy verification results based on different evaluation units
表 1 研究区SAR影像数据基本参数信息
Table 1. Basic parameter information of SAR image data in the study area
SAR传感器 Sentinel-1A 轨道方向 升轨 降轨 轨道号 99 33 幅号 1 275 492, 497 所处波段 C C 雷达波长(cm) 5.6 5.6 入射角(°) 36.99 38.71 影像间隔时间(d) 12 12 影像获取时间段 2016-01~2023-10 2016-01~2023-10 影像数量(景) 209 222 
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表 2 地巫乡段滑坡危险性分区统计表
Table 2. Statistics of landslide hazard zoning in Diwu Township Section
评价单元 InSAR数据源 滑坡灾害易发性分级 分级面积（km2） 分级面积占比（%） 滑坡数量（处） 滑坡数量占比（%） 斜坡单元 无 极高易发 12.66 4.87 23 27.71 高易发 42.48 16.34 35 42.17 中等易发 43.95 16.90 14 16.87 低易发 160.91 61.89 11 13.25 斜坡单元 升轨数据 极高易发 33.60 12.92 38 45.78 高易发 24.39 9.38 19 22.89 中等易发 21.88 8.42 7 8.43 低易发 180.13 69.28 19 22.9 斜坡单元 降轨数据 极高易发 14.38 5.53 30 36.14 高易发 36.60 14.08 25 30.12 中等易发 34.86 13.41 14 16.87 低易发 174.15 66.98 14 16.87 斜坡单元 升降轨联合数据 极高易发 19.69 7.57 41 49.39 高易发 32.45 12.48 14 16.87 中等易发 38.47 14.80 14 16.87 低易发 169.39 65.15 14 16.87 栅格单元 无 极高易发 26.87 10.33 21 25.30 高易发 34.76 13.36 22 26.51 中等易发 46.31 17.81 32 38.55 低易发 152.08 58.50 8 9.64 栅格单元 升轨数据 极高易发 19.78 7.61 27 32.53 高易发 25.17 9.68 19 22.89 中等易发 68.76 26.44 22 26.51 低易发 146.31 56.27 15 18.07 栅格单元 降轨数据 极高易发 17.32 6.66 30 36.14 高易发 40.87 15.72 21 25.30 中等易发 36.29 13.95 18 21.68 低易发 165.54 63.67 14 16.88 栅格单元 升降轨联合数据 极高易发 21.36 8.21 32 38.55 高易发 37.29 14.34 20 24.09 中等易发 34.96 13.44 17 20.48 低易发 166.41 64.01 14 16.88
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